Greece

[Gabriel]

If the Euro were going to fail, it would surely have happened in the immediate period following the global crisis. It has endured, though, and even this week has been relatively robust, so regardless of what happens in the Greek referendum- assuming it even happens- it will likely survive. Should the Greeks vote Oxi, then the 'turmoil' of this week will be chicken feed in comparison to what comes next, when the chaos and hardship lasts longer and bites deeper; Greece will not recover quickly. Its predicament will also serve as a stark reminder for the Spanish and Portuguese, for example, of the perils of exiting.

 

[Chancy Termites]

If the Euro were going to fail, it would surely have happened in the immediate period following the global crisis. It has endured, though, and even this week has been relatively robust, so regardless of what happens in the Greek referendum- assuming it even happens- it will likely survive. Should the Greeks vote Oxi, then the 'turmoil' of this week will be chicken feed in comparison to what comes next, when the chaos and hardship lasts longer and bites deeper; Greece will not recover quickly. Its predicament will also serve as a stark reminder for the Spanish and Portuguese, for example, of the perils of exiting.

Not necessarily. The Euro effectively 'failed' a long time ago. Since then the can has merely been kicked down the road up to the point now where the can has fallen to pieces.

 

[aguero93:20]

So, Greece haven't paid, it's been a full day and still no Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanic Eruptions, Bubonic Plague or Demons streaming forth from cracks in the earth to destroy the old and devour the young. Lessons to be learned here my friends.

 

[blueonblue]

Nothing about thievery. We have to remember that the eu wants fiscal union. If that was achieved greater measures to prevent this situation could be taken. As it stands, they can't due to sovereignty.

Political stated aims do not over ride simple maths, you can not go down to the bank for a simple mortgage without they want to know the ins and outs of a cats arsehole, they will check your income/expenditure to see if you can pay it back, ANY sniff of doubt an it gets rejected.

Now look at the situation where the banks know for a cast iron fact that the amount of existing debts mean you could never pay, so those same banks provide a team of financial "Experts" who rejig your books (While claiming a huge commission) so the debts appear far smaller, think that was out of the goodness of there heart ?, or because it made no difference to them, because they were the ones printing the bits of paper that would allow hard asset grabs with the veneer of legality when the inevitable defaults happened.

The EU and the banks are one and the same, it was a huge con trick from the start to fuel growth in Germany/France, fiscal union could only happen with equals, and the Greeks were never that, an everybody knew it.

 

[blueinsa]

So, Greece haven't paid, it's been a full day and still no Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanic Eruptions, Bubonic Plague or Demons streaming forth from cracks in the earth to destroy the old and devour the young. Lessons to be learned here my friends.

Said it before, just numbers on a screen.

 

[roaminblue]

Political stated aims do not over ride simple maths, you can not go down to the bank for a simple mortgage without they want to know the ins and outs of a cats arsehole, they will check your income/expenditure to see if you can pay it back, ANY sniff of doubt an it gets rejected.

Now look at the situation where the banks know for a cast iron fact that the amount of existing debts mean you could never pay, so those same banks provide a team of financial "Experts" who rejig your books (While claiming a huge commission) so the debts appear far smaller, think that was out of the goodness of there heart ?, or because it made no difference to them, because they were the ones printing the bits of paper that would allow hard asset grabs with the veneer of legality when the inevitable defaults happened.

The EU and the banks are one and the same, it was a huge con trick from the start to fuel growth in Germany/France, fiscal union could only happen with equals, and the Greeks were never that, an everybody knew it.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say about refinancing, can you explain further.

Happy to discuss in more detail, but are you saying refinancings never make debt cheaper? Because that is just incorrect, I'm afraid. And I say that with certainty and with professional experience.

I think the bailouts were managed incorrectly. They went to creditors, but that simply means the scale of the bailout was too small. Either that or they should have pumped the money directly into the Greek system. Though the tax and public sector frameworks would need to seriously be overhauled.

I agree that the Greeks aren't the Germans equalls economically, howeverr the trading synergies could have had a large benefit to the Greek economy. The global recession just meant that the demand side wasn't achieved.

Anyway, we are where we are. Greeks will vote yes, then concessions should be made to their public sector and tax, and the eu should stimulate the economy from internally, not from a credit perspective

 

[roaminblue]

Said it before, just numbers on a screen.

Just numbers on a screen can have a massive effect, but the market didn't believe this was a big deal.

And they're right. The contagion is restricted to Greece.

Apart from widening credit spreads for the Greeks, we're good for now.

A no vote may change that, however. But even then it will be limited.

 

[mat]

Political coup by democratic means.

I will never accept austerity created by bankers putting imaginary numbers into a computer.

People of Greece should vote no and start again.

 

[roaminblue]

Political coup by democratic means.

I will never accept austerity created by bankers putting imaginary numbers into a computer.

People of Greece should vote no and start again.

What do you think happens if they say no then?

What happens to their ability to borrow? Where does their cash come from? Printing more? Or do they go back to a barter system?

Like it or not, the numbers on a screen determine everything about financing

 

[blueonblue]

I'm not sure what you are trying to say about refinancing, can you explain further.

Try google for - Goldman Sachs, Greece, and swaps, then look up Goldman Sachs and the IMF, you will see the same players not just on on both sides, but also within the EU & ECB.