Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[Len Rum]

Fuck all has happened, nothing other than signing a letter and delivering it.

Even the EU have no real clue or strategy as of yet because its new ground, new territory and there is no past experience to draw on.

Row row row your boat gently back up stream
Merrily merrily merrily merrily commitments now a dream.

 

[blueinsa]

Row row row your boat gently back up stream
Merrily merrily merrily merrily commitments now a dream.

Like this lot, literally nothing of note to add......

 

[Magicpole]

let Scotland go separate,then start a war with them take Scotland back and kill a few jocks I like the sound of this brexit thingy mebob

Well there's always that option, but you would need to accept we might fight back so make sure you're not in the vanguard. :)

 

[sir baconface]

Quite a lot has happened mate regarding rowing back on commitments and promises made to the British people.
You just don't want to see it.
By the way it's 'big' Len thank you ( if you know what I mean).

I've come to the conclusion you were raised by aliens.

 

[purplenose]

We would think you were a spiteful nutter who doesn't have the first clue what they're talking about probably.

I could do a small poll?

Yes you could. Before you go to the trouble of doing so I wonder if you might answer the following?

How do you think trying to make one big country out of 27 vastly differing nations whom have different cultures religions ethics languages and pace of life is going to work? Especially when some of those countries will not anytime soon subscribe to some of the rules of the EU? Explain to me why like the previous two attempts to do what the EU are doing failed spectacularly (Soviet Union, Yugoslavia) and this wont?

 

[mcfc1632]

Well at least you've got a perspective.


No, but it's not just a trading union, is it? At least, some leavers seem to be against the United States of Europe type of political union and want out to have control, protect our sovereignty, and bugger the consequences of "an uncharted course against a backdrop of uncertainty" - all we have to do is have faith and ignore the doubters. Turn to Brexit and thou shalt be saved.

How so? If you're threatening that your last resort is no deal, and everyone (apart from those who want no deal for their own political ends) think that would be bad, would it not be more credible as a threat if you had some idea what you could do to mitigate the effects? Without that, the EU is surely going to think that "no deal is better than a bad deal" is just rhetoric by a government that hasn't a clue how bad "no deal" could be.

In 1975 we voted to join/remain in a trading block and in 2016 we voted to leave a political union - the government is getting on with implementing that decision of the electorate

Once a UK citizen, even a Remain voting one, is able to accept this simple fact then they should be able to get behind the UK in securing the best possible outcome(s) for the UK from a tricky set of circumstances. It is logically only those that are not able to move on that cannot hope for the best outcome for the UK and offer support in achieving that.

In general all your posts and those of others, demonstrate the reasons why most of your points are not really relevant to the 2017-2019 period.

You and others, are clearly still in your 'Vote Remain on 23rd June' mode whilst a number of us are now looking at the challenges facing the nation as it take on a negotiation with an organisation whose actions and intentions are predicated on ensuring the UK is seen to suffer and certainly not thrive.

Our negotiations are going to be trickier than another trading block's as they would have their existing terms to fallback on until a deal is done with the EU - we have to establish anew such arrangements and there will be ramifications for many years to come. It is simple logic that the better the arrangements we make at the start the better and sooner, will we achieve the positive benefits of our 'independence'.

You are not alone - there are a great number, many, like Hilary Benn, in positions of influence that are still rejecting that the referendum had an outcome and that the government is now set on implementing the decision. They want to see the result overturned - and they should indeed be quite chipper, as mentioned in the Rees-Mogg clip on the previous page, votes that have gone against the EU have been overturned or ignored on a good number of occasions.

The best way to overturn this UK vote is to place the EU in a position where it can just play hard-ball for an extended period of time, with the UK negotiating team not having any mechanism to 'break out of the loop'. Time will go by and months will turn into years and eventually there will be an opportunity for a 2nd referendum that can undo the 1st as it will be supported by the EU ensuring that the outcome for the UK outside the EU looks disastrous and the EU will also offer a few 'time-bound' sweeteners, such as limited immigration controls.

We have a trump card - money. The EU has had a queue of countries wanting join in the expansionist aims of the EU leaders - why? The article below demonstrates how countries benefit from the EU largesse - but the money has to come from somewhere. Germany gives a lot but they also get a lot of control - we are the 2nd biggest contributor but get only contempt - certainly no influence.

An extract from the article:

"More than €250 billion were or will be spent since Poland joined the bloc with other former communist states in 2004. In today’s dollars, that’s equivalent to more than the US-funded Marshall Plan provided to western Europe after the second World War."

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...e-ireland-it-may-actually-be-poland-1.3036011

I am in Cyprus on holiday - the village nearby is having new sewers installed and new pavements to meet EU standards I am overlooking an area of the sea where a project has been agreed to build a new marina - all with EU funding - but where does it come from!! Could we not do something for the welfare of the UK with the money if we retained it under our control?

The contempt that the UK is treated with by the EU has become systemic and the only way for us to stop such treatment is to leave - but they are not going to want their milch-cow to be unavailable whilst there is still a lot that can be drained from it. They, supported by sycophants like Benn, will fight on. Why are so many on here so content to see the UK continuously 'battered' and abused? It is a bit like some 'Stockholm syndrome'.

I have explained previously that - from a point of view of managing successfully the negotiations - the UK needs a viable walk-away option. The EU are desperate to prevent such an option as the withdrawal of the UK funds will very quickly undermine all their plans for and commitments made to the poorer counties over the next 7 years. Should the threat of such a walk-away option by the UK loom large - they might have to negotiate in earnest rather than seek to simply delay the process for years.

Having failed with the veto amendment, Benn is seeking to undermine the UK's negotiating team with another, very similar, ploy to prevent the UK being able to threaten to play its 'Ace of trumps'.

We all know the implications of no deal - WTO etc. This is just politics being played on behalf of the EU.

 

[Damocles]

The Appeaser now stating full immigration will continue during the transitional phase.
YCNMIU.

Because we're still in the EU in the transitional phase.

You're shocked about this but this was blatantly obvious to everybody else in the world that while still in the EU we'd have to abide by EU law and we'd still have access to EU resources. Because we're in the EU.

 

[Sunny Coast Blue]

This attitude is just plain silly

Nobody with a brain cell thought/thinks that this is all going to be very difficult and that there will be major dramas along the way

Best you hide under your duvet until it is sorted

Waste of breath, let the fookers squirm till its sorted, maybe it will take 50 years also.

 

[Magicpole]

Yes you could. Before you go to the trouble of doing so I wonder if you might answer the following?

How do you think trying to make one big country out of 27 vastly differing nations whom have different cultures religions ethics languages and pace of life is going to work? Especially when some of those countries will not anytime soon subscribe to some of the rules of the EU? Explain to me why like the previous two attempts to do what the EU are doing failed spectacularly (Soviet Union, Yugoslavia) and this wont?

Have you any understanding about European history? If you did you will notice we don't have wars anymore. That the living standards of all have improved. That to engender a feeling of connection leads to understanding. That the Eu might need a lot of reform but that it could be improved.

That globalisation requires economic strength to not be consumed by it. That we need these people to help our country bit just function but to prosper.

That even now they are back tracking on immigration as it is a fundamental requirement for economic growth. That the failure to engage with education for many people renders them unemployable and that this is the single biggest contribution to being out of work.

For me, leaving is retreating into an era I was glad we left. Seems 52% of the entire uk disagrees. I take comfort in the fact 62% of us up here share my view.

We will be stuck with brexit and tories forever going back the way and people wonder why we want a vote on that?

We might decide to remain in the uk under this new reality. It looks that way to me, but, I hope not.

 

[Damocles]

Have you any understanding about European history? If you did you will notice we don't have wars anymore. That the living standards of all have improved.

None of which has anything to do with the EU because this fully applies to completely different regions of the world too

 

[blueinsa]

None of which has anything to do with the EU because this fully applies to completely different regions of the world too

As you said quite rightly yesterday, everything to do with maturing democracies.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Fuck me - please tell the world that there are not really millions like you

You must live in a cave in the Cotswolds with a Union Jack tea cosy wrapped round your todger.

 

[Damocles]

As you said quite rightly yesterday, everything to do with maturing democracies.

Linked a video on this, it's suggested to be 4 stranded

• Democracies don't go to war with each other as often.

• It's less expensive to trade with people than to kill them and take their resources due to the cost of modern war.

• Borders have become much more fixed whereas in the past they were generally fluid, leading to less territorial disputes.

• War is no longer considered a natural part of human life and international legislation about wars of aggression seems to have dampened the enthusiasm.

Along a similar theme, this has led to an increased value and understanding of the worth of all human life.

Selected quotes from https://thinkprogress.org/5-reasons-why-2013-was-the-best-year-in-human-history-392c4888e603

Between 1990 and 2010, the percentage of children who died before their fifth birthday dropped by almost half. Measles deaths declined by 71 percent, and both tuberculosis and maternal deaths by half again. HIV, that modern plague, is also being held back, with deaths from AIDS-related illnesses down by 24 percent since 2005.

What’s going on? Obviously, it’s fairly complicated, but the most important drivers have been technological and political innovation. The Enlightenment-era advances in the scientific method got people doing high-quality research, which brought us modern medicine and the information technologies that allow us to spread medical breakthroughs around the world at increasingly faster rates. Scientific discoveries also fueled the Industrial Revolution and the birth of modern capitalism, giving us more resources to devote to large-scale application of live-saving technologies. And the global spread of liberal democracy made governments accountable to citizens, forcing them to attend to their health needs or pay the electoral price.

There are fewer people in abject poverty than at any other point in human history, and middle class people enjoy their highest standard of living ever. We haven’t come close to solving poverty: a number of African countries in particular have chronic problems generating growth, a nut foreign aid hasn’t yet cracked. So this isn’t a call for complacency about poverty any more than acknowledging victories over disease is an argument against tackling malaria. But make no mistake: as a whole, the world is much richer in 2013 than it was before.

721 million fewer people lived in extreme poverty ($1.25 a day) in 2010 than in 1981, according to a new World Bank study from October. That’s astounding — a decline from 40 to about 14 percent of the world’s population suffering from abject want. And poverty rates are declining in every national income bracket: even in low income countries, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty ($1.25 a day in 2005 dollars) a day gone down from 63 in 1981 to 44 in 2010.

That democracies never, or almost never, go to war with each other is not seriously in dispute: the statistical evidence is ridiculously strong. While some argue that the “democratic peace,” as it’s called, is caused by things other than democracy itself, there’s good experimental evidence that democratic leaders and citizens just don’t want to fight each other.

Take a few examples. Slavery, once commonly sanctioned by governments, is illegal everywhere on earth. The use of torture as legal punishment has gone down dramatically. The European murder rate fell 35-fold from the Middle Ages to the beginning of the 20th century (check out this amazing 2003 paper from Michael Eisner, who dredged up medieval records to estimate European homicide rates in the swords-and-chivalry era, if you don’t believe me).

The decline has been especially marked in recent years. Though homicide crime rates climbed back up from their historic lows between the 1970s and 1990s, reversing progress made since the late 19th century, they have collapsed worldwide in the 21st century. 557,000 people were murdered in 2001 — almost three times as many as were killed in war that year. In 2008, that number was 289,000, and the homicide rate has been declining in 75 percent of nations since then.

Stephen Pinker sums up his book in this TED Talk.



I do think it's important to keep posting this. Due to the sensationalistic media and emotion driven social media, we often forget how much better the world is getting for everybody on it and the literally extraordinary steps that have been made in society over the course of the past 70 years.

 

[Magicpole]

None of which has anything to do with the EU because this fully applies to completely different regions of the world too

Yes, but this is our part of the world and I believe it's worth fighting to try at least to improve it. I don't think we are making a wise move. We are ten months down the road and still nobody has a clue of where we are going. What it will look like. How to condense seven year trade deal negotiations to a level that will ensure no collapse of exports. That when the £ crashes again our imports will be even more expensive and thus will see the deficit rise.

Brexit was carried out in an emotional level. Back of a fag packet with everything will be fine, we are British blah blah.

A bit like Trump, it easy to play to angst, delivering his utopian horseshit is proving rather more difficult.

This is a populist revolt and the track record of this type of thing has never ended well. Unless you sell arms

 

[blueinsa]

This is a populist revolt and the track record of this type of thing has never ended well.

Well you would know i suppose lol ;-)

 

[stonerblue]

QUOTE="Len Rum, post: 10111114, member: 53634"]Need to get my head round that one mate ( as the actress said) before I reply.
Just off to Tescos.
You'd be surprised how much fruit and veg comes from the EU.

Think again! For fuck sake. Come on.

[/QUOTE]

Smashing..

 

[Vic]

The best way to overturn this UK vote is to place the EU in a position where it can just play hard-ball for an extended period of time, with the UK negotiating team not having any mechanism to 'break out of the loop'. Time will go by and months will turn into years and eventually there will be an opportunity for a 2nd referendum that can undo the 1st as it will be supported by the EU ensuring that the outcome for the UK outside the EU looks disastrous and the EU will also offer a few 'time-bound' sweeteners, such as limited immigration controls.

Sounds like a plan.

 

[Damocles]

Yes, but this is our part of the world and I believe it's worth fighting to try at least to improve it. I don't think we are making a wise move. We are ten months down the road and still nobody has a clue of where we are going. What it will look like. How to condense seven year trade deal negotiations to a level that will ensure no collapse of exports. That when the £ crashes again our imports will be even more expensive and thus will see the deficit rise.

Yes but others, many many others, believe that "improving it" means getting out of the EU and striking our own trade deals.

And as a space enthusiast I don't accept complexity or uncertainty as an argument against doing things. Complexity isn't an enemy, it's just a technological problem. There is uncertainty around every decision that you make, it in itself is not a bad thing. Economies of course run on certainty but at the moment all economies are taking a wait and see attitude to Brexit.

Many think that having the ability to strike our own trade deals with the fastest growing economies in the world that will get them right on the table is a good thing for our country. This isn't a wrong opinion.

Your whole logic is predicated on the idea that Brexit will fail so everything you've built on top of that is based on it. If you remove that and state that Brexit is an uncertain situation that could go ewither way, much of your argument falls apart. Here's an example:

"That when the £ crashes again our imports will be even more expensive "

 

[Damocles]

Think again! For fuck sake. Come on.

Smashing..[/QUOTE]

Her names Maitland Ward and she's on Instagram for all of you Googlers.

 

[sir baconface]

Think again! For fuck sake. Come on.

Smashing..[/QUOTE]

Her names Maitland Ward and she's on Instagram for all of you Googlers.

Yes, yes, but are they organic?