Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[Churchlawtonblue]

The bbc's golden remainer Tim Farron and his lib dems have not resurged in the local elections as they hoped and predicted. What a shame for the horrible little self righteous remaimer.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Based on what? All evidence is to the contrary. All 27 remaining members agreed with startling rapidity to adopt the stance they did. In fact Brussels, which is used to prolonged waffle, dither and fudge from its members, was astonished how fast the 27 agreed to it.

If anything positions have hardened and this isn't just pre-negotiation posturing.

 

[hilts]

The bbc's golden remainer Tim Farron and his lib dems have not resurged in the local elections as they hoped and predicted. What a shame for the horrible little self righteous remaimer.

The sad faced remainers have been brainwashed not to vote by the right wing media, you must have seen the bus stating the local elections were next week? Other reports of people being locked in their homes have not been reported by the fascist BBC.

#prayforthem

 

[Vic]

All the major players are locked, some might say imprisoned, by the positions they find themselves in. If Yanis Varoufakis is right and I believe he is, then there's not the slightest possibility of a favourable outcome for all parties, not because they don't desire it, but because they are incapable of delivering it, they are locked in to a mind set that makes it impossible.....

That's fascinating. Not least "the inanity" that no matter how damaging to the UK, May must do away with freedom of movement. I think he's calling those who insist on it "thick".

 

[mcfc1632]

The bbc's golden remainer Tim Farron and his lib dems have not resurged in the local elections as they hoped and predicted. What a shame for the horrible little self righteous remaimer.

Every time I see him I just regret that Spitting Image is no longer broadcast - they would have gone to town with him

 

[hilts]

Every time I see him I just regret that Spitting Image is no longer broadcast - they would have gone to town with him

Always looks like he is going to burst into tears

 

[Vic]

Excellent news if true.

Now before the usual suspects jump all over that comment - it does not mean that I want us to end contributions / walk away etc. - it is just that I have been saying for months that the EU needs to be aware that we have both the option and the will to use it if pushed too far.

Even just leaking that out will have positive impact on our negotiating position

Even the Lannisters pay their debts.

 

[Vic]

Reading these last few posts provides a demonstration of the impasse on here.

They can all be seen as 'factually correct', but the pro-EU posters seem to be only ever able to see things from the worst POV for the UK.

Yes - at this point - the EU position on whether UK goods meet their standards could require 'paperwork' to be produced that would be a major burden

All fair enough - but statements of the obvious and of course reflecting the Remainer need to project the pitiful UK getting nothing and the mighty EU getting everything from the negotiations.

Lets be fanciful from the pro-Brexit viewpoint:

Scenario: That because the UK products and services currently meet EU standards, then the EU accepts that all trade should just continue on a basis of the status quo – on a basis of presumed compliance, subject to audit and tariff-free.

Ok fanciful, but reflecting one end of a spectrum.

Let’s identify the other end of the spectrum, perhaps so severe that it leads to such a bad experience that the UK re-joins the fold with its tail between its legs in a few years.

This would see massive loss of productivity due to the need to prove compliance leading to major loss off trade – imposition of significant tariffs – raping and pillaging of all our services etc.

This feels less fanciful – but really only because we have had the doom and gloom rammed down our throats for all these months from the pro-EU brigade that can only consider things from the POV of their heroes.

So where on this spectrum will the actual outcome lie? – somewhere between of course. It is called negotiations.

We have had months of the EU spouting it’s Billy big bollocks diatribe – all sucked up and applauded by the pro-EU brigade. Recently we get some push-back from the UK and – shock horror – the same people line up to rubbish the UK representatives for their temerity to question the EU supremacy.

Surely, if the – pro-EU brigade could just come out of their bubble for a few moments and look at things objectively – it is surely self-evident that, whilst the EU want to have the outcome closest to their end of the spectrum, the extent to which they move towards a middle ground is all dependent on the strength of the UK’s negotiating hand – with access to our money for a precariously positioned EU being an important factor.

Given we are where we are – preparing to leave the EU - you might expect even the most extreme pro-EU members on here to post in a manner that comments on how the negotiations, whilst they fear the worst, could progress to the best interests of the UK. You could at least be forgiven for expecting to read some posts from them which reflected that they were hoping for the best for the UK.

It seems a sort of perverse tribalism where they are so locked in to their admiration for the EU it over-rides any ability to consider or suggest how the best interests of the UK could be achieved.

Well we wouldn't be starting from the inanity of doing away with freedom of movement as a thick red line. Accept that it is a stupid stance, and leaving the EU becomes a lot easier. The only thing likely to reduce net immigration is a deteriorating UK economy, and it looks at the moment like Brexit will achieve that. Really, don't expect Remainers to forget all the sound arguments against leaving and suddenly adopt the policies we knew and said would be bad for Britain. Oh, sorry, I forgot that's how May got to be PM.

 

[cibaman]

I'd prefer to wait and see on this one. The population of each nation will influence negotiations. Messages will sent and received.

There will undoubtedly be compromises on, for example, the size of the divorce bill. It should also be possible to agree sensible transitional arrangements. But I don't really see how either side can politically change track to turn what's heading to be a rock hard brexit into something softer.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

If we left the EU today, then tomorrow all those UK services, all those UK widgets, all those UK everything that were traded freely within the EU, would immediately be non compliant, despite the fact they are identical in every way to the goods and services that were traded without restriction 24 hours earlier.

Wrong.

The goods and services would be compliant. The method of confirmation would be missing until agreed.
How much of the electronics bought in the EU is made in China? Based on that example alone it's clear that writing CE in crayon is quite enough to meet standards.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Well we wouldn't be starting from the inanity of doing away with freedom of movement as a thick red line. Accept that it is a stupid stance, and leaving the EU becomes a lot easier. The only thing likely to reduce net immigration is a deteriorating UK economy, and it looks at the moment like Brexit will achieve that. Really, don't expect Remainers to forget all the sound arguments against leaving and suddenly adopt the policies we knew and said would be bad for Britain. Oh, sorry, I forgot that's how May got to be PM.

The sound arguments against leaving?? which based on how the economy is doing so far against the immediate brexit doom and gloom predictions have just been shown up as total lies or incompetance. I will leave you to choose which! True we havent left yet but all anyone can say with certainty is without doubt only one side have been proved wrong in their predictions so far and that isnt the leave camp.

 

[Len Rum]

Wrong.

The goods and services would be compliant. The method of confirmation would be missing until agreed.
How much of the electronics bought in the EU is made in China? Based on that example alone it's clear that writing CE in crayon is quite enough to meet standards.

I'm afraid the fumble is right.
You quote China as proof he is wrong, but China has 65 "trade deals" with the EU of which 13 are bilateral.
If we crash out or leave with no deal we would as a minimum have to enter into such agreements with the EU.
NB worth noting that the EU have stated we cannot 'cherry pick' sectors and they will not agree to us replicating the single market by the back door by entering into separate trade agreements for each sector.

 

[The perfect fumble]

That's fascinating. Not least "the inanity" that no matter how damaging to the UK, May must do away with freedom of movement. I think he's calling those who insist on it "thick".

He explained why it is that people of goodwill so often screw up. It's not rocket science to see that the EU's insistence that divorce payment first, trade deal later, is the worst possible negotiating position the EU could have taken from our perspective, insisting we meet all our obligations without knowing what concessions are on offer, removing what few bargaining chips we have.

On our side of the Channel, May's insistence on zero flexibility on free movement of labour means that an EU lite, one foot in, one foot out deal, is practically impossible.

It is important to understand that the positions May and Brussels have taken are a product of the structures they've built themselves, they are painfully constrained in their manoeuvrability by the expectations of their hinterland, the people and organisations they represent. From an EU perspective Britain cannot be allowed anything resembling a good deal for fear of encouraging others to leave and over here May, for her own political reasons, has made immigration so front and centre of her negotiating stance, that she's closed off any prospect of a bespoke Common Market like arrangement.

In negotiating terminology the two parties are simply unable to enter the zone of acceptability, this is where deals are made which both parties to a negotiation find acceptable.

This does not look good for us.

 

[Len Rum]

Re the view of EU27 unity, of course this appears to be utterly solid at this moment – my word they should be worried if that was not the case, but why though should this not be considered to be simply pre-negotiations posturing. We see the EU27 heads of state brigaded together – for photo opportunities. They are provided with presentations and given confidence that the EU position is one of supremacy etc. They are required to simply vote through the preparations to commence the negotiations – it costs nothing so far for them to stand and smile for the camera – to break into orchestrated applause after a vote.

But behind the scenes they each have domestic agendas and it is clear, if you care to look rather than just suck up the EU propaganda, that each have their problems.

We hear about elections in Germany and France – but these will not, IMO, affect these negotiations overly. They will be over and a pro-EU candidate returned in the coming months. For them it is the next general elections that will be more of a concern and they will be glad that their elections fell in 2017 and not, let’s say 2019.

But amongst the ‘lesser lights’ of the EU though there is much angst.

Ireland, having just turned from a net beneficiary to a net contributor, are about to face the situation where more than two thirds of their exports go to non-EU countries. We hear much about the border, but there is tremendous angst in Ireland about the outcome of Brexit on its trade. There is even discussion going on that should there be a major fall out with the UK they might have to consider leaving as well – such is the level of their dependency on the UK for exports.

And there is trepidation across many other countries which have domestic manifestos greatly influenced by the level of support they are expecting to receive from the EU. Don’t forget Poland, as just one example, is reported to have already received £250bn since accession – the other more recent joiners want some of that and have received promises. And all other the EU27 members, including Germany, face adverse consequences from a major fall out with the UK.

As I say, it is easy to show unity at this time – they have been promised all will be OK and the UK will be brought to heel – this may not be so certain after all.

Of course with me mentioning the adverse impact on the EU27 the usual suspects will no doubt jump on the post screaming about how much worse it will be for the UK.

Actually, I am not sure that is totally true – it depends on your starting point for comparison.

If you are someone that cannot move on from 23/06, then you will be right to view that things will deteriorate from the trade position at that time.

But if you take the currently EU planned 2019 position as your point of comparison – well they are going to seek to punish us badly anyway – so why pay for that privilege and let the pain all be one-sided?

I am being deliberately simplistic here.

Simple.
To make up the 8bn pa UK shortfall, net contributors will have to contribute a little bit more.
Germany chip in an extra 2, France 1, Netherlands 1, Italy 1, Sweden et al 1. Trim 2bn off spending ( or get the 22 others to chip in extra 2/6d each).
Sorted.
Next.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

I'm afraid the fumble is right.
You quote China as proof he is wrong, but China has 65 "trade deals" with the EU of which 13 are bilateral.
If we crash out or leave with no deal we would as a minimum have to enter into such agreements with the EU.
NB worth noting that the EU have stated we cannot 'cherry pick' sectors and they will not agree to us replicating the single market by the back door by entering into separate trade agreements for each sector.

The point is that anyone can import goods to the EU so long as they meet EU standards. What would be missing is the conformity assessments. As this is already done in the UK as a member of the EU there is no reason to think that given the reform act will not change any of the current legislation that the current practices should overnight be rejected by the EU.

To do so would invalidate the conformity systems of ALL remaining EU countries.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

Simple.
To make up the 8bn pa UK shortfall, net contributors will have to contribute a little bit more.
Germany chip in an extra 2, France 1, Netherlands 1, Italy 1, Sweden et al 1. Trim 2bn off spending ( or get the 22 others to chip in extra 2/6d each).
Sorted.
Next.

Some have already said they will not increase contributions due to brexit.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

And while we're at it. The EU believe that no deal may well be better for them as the duty they would receive from WTO would be higher than any contributions we might pay to gain free trade access. The same duty levels would mean something like 5 billion in duty for us. Our duty goes directly into the Government coffers, in the EU case 80% of it goes to the EU not the individual trading nations.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Goldman Sachs CEO warning pf the effect of Brexit on city jobs - quite a few of them making plans to export some high (tax) paying jobs - seems the number is dependant on how they see the outcome of the talks. Still not good news though

 

[Gelsons Dad]

Goldman Sachs CEO warning pf the effect of Brexit on city jobs - quite a few of them making plans to export some high (tax) paying jobs - seems the number is dependant on how they see the outcome of the talks. Still not good news though

Given the vitriol directed at the bankers I would hope to see the looney left celebrating the demise of evil banking.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Given the vitriol directed at the bankers I would hope to see the looney left celebrating the demise of evil banking.

Given the economic implications of a mass exodus of high paid UK jobs into the EU anyone thinking that would be foolish - post Brexit we will need all the money we can get - the bankers behaviour has, is and will continue to be reprehensible but reality will bite.