Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[vonkeynotvenky]

We should have learned by now that polls don't mean a thing, it's a vote that really counts, and we've had the vote.

 

[smudgedj]

We should have learned by now that polls don't mean a thing, it's a vote that really counts, and we've had the vote.

I'm led to believe that the vote was a decisive win to leave. ;-)

 

[Damocles]

Of course.

YouGov poll 10th May.

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?

Wrong 45%

Right 44%

Don't know 11%

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...n-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

With a 3% margin of error, so utterly pointless and tells us nothing

 

[The perfect fumble]

With a 3% margin of error, so utterly pointless and tells us nothing

You're right, but what it does tell us is that it is highly unlikely remain has shrunk to 22%

 

[mcfc1632]

Of course.

YouGov poll 10th May.

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?

Wrong 45%

Right 44%

Don't know 11%

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...n-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

Strange response that??

By saying 'Of course' - are you suggesting that I am being untruthful?

Just google newsnow brexit and you will see it on the 1st page

As I said - I was just putting it out there - nothing more - nothing less

You seem a bit touchy

 

[Kazzydeyna]

Don't know if the link will work as I've never posted a video before but if it does have a listen.

I would hardly call John Pilger a raving knuckle dragging racist. He sums up perfectly for me why it is simply impossible to vote remain and call yourself a leftist.

 

[Vic]

Len, to continue that, I would say - I guess you may think that I would - that I have since June been proven correct about how things would unfold. Whilst I have been very nervous until recently that the referendum decision to leave would get undermined by the self-serving machinations in Westminster, I feel much more confident now than at any point previously that indeed we will leave and that it can be a Win - Win outcome. At the very least now, assuming that May goes get an increased majority, there exists the negotiating conditions that mean both parties can be motivated to reach a common agreement rather than one where one party, the EU, is determined to demonstrate that they are the clear winner - and that the UK has been punished and let that be a lessons to the other 27.

Recent weeks has seen evidence that the EU leaders are starting to be a little less arrogant - even a bit irritated - perhaps actually a bit anxious/nervous - and the trend is towards a stronger UK position. Very soon, post 08/06, we will be able to engage in the negotiations with the EU side having to now take stock and realise that all the 'ultra-confidence' that they had some months ago and which led to their 100% EU Win mandate is perhaps not so well-founded as they had thought.

I have pointed out that there is evidence that the Unity shown by the EU27 that has been orchestrated and based on all the assurances from the EC that it will be an EU walk-over is starting to become fractured. I predict that we will see those fractures increase and the EU's total win mandate change.

IMO, the time is now that you might want to engage less in explaining why the 23/06 referendum decision was oh so wrong and start to take part in discussions on the possible 'deal scenarios' - not just a no-deal one - and I will put out a separate post to invite us all to do that so we can move the debate on. The thread is after all supposed to be about the negotiations.

For all the copious stuff you put out (or maybe because of it) I can't recall what you expect a deal to look like. You say we have to have the walkaway option - but seem scornful of anyone who suggests that that will be self-fulfilling, and it will not be good. I think you think that, even with a deal, leaving will be bad for the UK economy, at least in the short term (40 years?). I'm not sure if you agree that we have treaty obligations to the EU that will involve exit payments, or think we should do the perfidious Albion thing and not fulfil our treaty obligations. So far as I know, the €100bn thing was floated by the Financial Times on the basis of a couple of quotes but doesn't seem an "official" EU thing - I'd say the first negotiating stance should be on who should arbitrate if the EU and the UK can't agree on a figure (and on the "German car export" principle / forlorn hope, the EU is bound to want a compromise). I presume we'd not trust the impartial judges on the ECJ, so there's the International Court of Justice (though I'm not sure the EU as distinct from individual states can be a party to a case there), or some special tribunal - anything seems better than walking off a cliff edge.

The key issue is that the leave agreement needs a qualified majority. Any new trade deal needs ratification by every EU state (and the Walloons).

Just think it through - this is the individual that the European Parliament has chosen to be their lead person with regard negotiations with the UK over Brexit

You would expect him to be therefore an individual of high professional standards conducting himself in the manner of a top diplomat - conscious of the heavy duty that falls upon his shoulders, the outcome of which will have major impact of the lives of more than 500m people.

And what do we get - someone with the diplomacy skills of Mr Bean

I entirely agree that it's not very responsible, but accusing EU officials of interfering in our election isn't exactly great diplomacy, and don't forget that he's up against bendy banana Boris. And if he hadn't posted it, I would not have seen the Domino Defect cartoon, so I'm grateful for that.

The negotiations are over, they want a load of our borrowed cash, We will tell them to F off. No deals, WTO rules and tariffs will apply. Jobs will go in the EU & the UK. Scotland will split from the UK. We will stop going on Holidays in France & Spain and stop driving German; French; Italian & Spanish cars. We need lots of trade deals organised with the rest of the world ASAP and we should be putting all our resources into this.

A week is a long time in politics. Two years is no time at all in negotiating trade deals.

This is the problem that you still find with the die-hard Remainers - most of them simply cannot consider anything that will develop and/or take place in the future.
......

It will be great when we see the Remainers progress a bit in the grieving process - moving on from the shock and denial stage and finding the capability to engage in debate

We haven't pulled the plug yet.

As bluishswede - clearly a pro-EU poster - so eloquently put it recently:

"The single market is the four freedoms - the freedom to provide services across the EU, the freedom to move capital across the EU, the freedom to provide goods across the EU and the freedom of movement of citizens to take up employment across the EU. These are defined in their geographical extent by a common border for trade- the customs union."

That is abundantly clear, as was his clarity on what this means occurred in the UK on 23/06/16, that:

"The UK voted to leave the customs union in a referendum on June 23 of last year.
The UK voted to leave the single market for goods in a referendum on 23 June of last year.
The UK voted to leave the single market for services in a referendum on 23 June of last year.
The UK voted to leave the single market for capital in a referendum on 23 June of last year.
The UK voted to leave the single area for movement of people in a referendum on 23 June last year."

It follows, as you say, that all this deluded babble we hear from Farron, Blair, Mandelson et al - and of course the usual suspects on here - about remaining in the Single market, is well, simply deluded babble.

Of course they know it means that we would not have actually left the EU and that is of course what they want - essentially, IMO, they are straight-forward lying when they say bollocks like - leaving the single market was not on the ballot paper, etc. - as bluishswede clearly demonstrates - oh yes it was!!!

Oh no it wasn't!

He's behind you! Boris as the pantomime villain? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...referendum-single-market-brexit-a7104846.html

How come it took May till early this year to say that Brexit means Brexit does mean leaving the singe market and the customs union?

http://www.voteleavewatch.org.uk/leave_campaigners_try_to_drop_their_false_promises

 

[mcfc1632]

Don't know if the link will work as I've never posted a video before but if it does have a listen.

I would hardly call John Pilger a raving knuckle dragging racist. He sums up perfectly for me why it is simply impossible to vote remain and call yourself a leftist.

I have posed this question before.

It is simply impossible for the type of left-wing model that they crave to be established in the UK whilst we remain in the EU, so it follows that the best (only) way they can see their dream ever come to fruition is for the UK to leave the EU.

Given that you could be forgiven for thinking that if they were actually true to their stated beliefs they would surely be supporting Leave. It makes me question if some of them are really so strong in their beliefs or whether it is 'intellectually fashionable' to present themselves so.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

I read today that Dyson vacs have won an appeal in the Euro court. Apparently, the energy ratings are tested only when vac bags are empty which helps Bosch vacs a little in that they need more energy the more the bag fills up. Dyson himself has commented that German electrical companies have been ganging up and outvoting everyone. Nothing like self-interest when the rules of the club don't suit!

And Macaroon is talking about a 'reformed' EU. Well, good luck with that one, Manu. Yer've more chance of Guingamp beating Real 5-1 in the CL final!

 

[mcfc1632]

I think I heard on the news earlier that Marcon, on the 1st day of his presidency, is in Germany to attend Merkel. He obviously knows how the EU works and where his bread is buttered.

 

[west didsblue]

Not seen a great deal about the possibility of the UK rejoining EFTA after Brexit. Seeing as three out of five of the richest European countries per capita are members of EFTA and not the EU, it seems like a logical aspiration. The fact that EFTA is trade focused and has nothing like the political integration aspirations of the EU, it should be something that Brexiters and Remainers could all support. EFTA already has trade deals with 27 countries as well as with the EU via the EEA. Obviously there would need to be compromises from the Brexiters regarding movement of labour but in principle membership of EFTA should give us most of the benefits of EU membership without actually being part of it. It seems to work for Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland. Whether they'd have us is another question.

 

[cibaman]

Not seen a great deal about the possibility of the UK rejoining EFTA after Brexit. Seeing as three out of five of the richest European countries per capita are members of EFTA and not the EU, it seems like a logical aspiration. The fact that EFTA is trade focused and has nothing like the political integration aspirations of the EU, it should be something that Brexiters and Remainers could all support. EFTA already has trade deals with 27 countries as well as with the EU via the EEA. Obviously there would need to be compromises from the Brexiters regarding movement of labour but in principle membership of EFTA should give us most of the benefits of EU membership without actually being part of it. It seems to work for Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland. Whether they'd have us is another question.

So will not happen

 

[Len Rum]

Not seen a great deal about the possibility of the UK rejoining EFTA after Brexit. Seeing as three out of five of the richest European countries per capita are members of EFTA and not the EU, it seems like a logical aspiration. The fact that EFTA is trade focused and has nothing like the political integration aspirations of the EU, it should be something that Brexiters and Remainers could all support. EFTA already has trade deals with 27 countries as well as with the EU via the EEA. Obviously there would need to be compromises from the Brexiters regarding movement of labour but in principle membership of EFTA should give us most of the benefits of EU membership without actually being part of it. It seems to work for Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland. Whether they'd have us is another question.

May ditched that one mate with her speech to the Tory party conference - end to free movement of Labour and not accepting ECJ.
Once UKIP is embedded in the Tory's DNA following the general election, May will have backed herself even further into a hard brexit corner having already sold out to the extreme right in her party and the the right wing Tory press.

 

[blueinsa]

Brexit means Brexit.

At what point will the remainer's who invented the terms, hard and soft in an attempt to still get what they wanted pack it the fuck in and accept we are leaving, end of?

Its laughable as they use the term "hard" to bash anyone with.

 

[mcfc1632]

Not seen a great deal about the possibility of the UK rejoining EFTA after Brexit. Seeing as three out of five of the richest European countries per capita are members of EFTA and not the EU, it seems like a logical aspiration. The fact that EFTA is trade focused and has nothing like the political integration aspirations of the EU, it should be something that Brexiters and Remainers could all support. EFTA already has trade deals with 27 countries as well as with the EU via the EEA. Obviously there would need to be compromises from the Brexiters regarding movement of labour but in principle membership of EFTA should give us most of the benefits of EU membership without actually being part of it. It seems to work for Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Iceland. Whether they'd have us is another question.

If we were to join the EFTA - what would have been the point of us leaving the EU?

 

[west didsblue]

If we were to join the EFTA - what would have been the point of us leaving the EU?

To get away from being part of a future European super-state.

 

[west didsblue]

May ditched that one mate with her speech to the Tory party conference - end to free movement of Labour and not accepting ECJ.
Once UKIP is embedded in the Tory's DNA following the general election, May will have backed herself even further into a hard brexit corner having already sold out to the extreme right in her party and the the right wing Tory press.

EFTA members aren't under the ECJ. They have their own supra-national court.

 

[mcfc1632]

Of course.

YouGov poll 10th May.

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?

Wrong 45%

Right 44%

Don't know 11%

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...n-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

So a number of other places reporting on this new poll today - the one that I mentioned gives a further breakdown which means that 'diehard Remainer' is down to just over one fifth. Headlines such as:

• New opinion polling has revealed a third group within the 52-48 Brexit divide

• YouGov found 23% of people who backed the EU want the referendum respected

• It means barely one in five are opposed to the result and want Brexit blocked

Do you still think that I was making it up?

 

[stonerblue]

I have read up on all this - including this article through the night before you posted it. For me though you would have been better starting a thread for it. It is a significant development / vulnerability across the globe which has many ramifications.

I can see the risks and I am not at all sure not only what the answer is - but where is even the start of the road that could lead to the answer/solution.

The problem I would suggest you may have/cause by posting it on this thread is that there will be some that do not read it - there will be others that think that they have read it but are not really able to absorb it - and there will be others that do see the truly global significance etc.

The problem is that on this thread the global significance is likely to get dumbed down to some excuse / blame of why the 23/06 vote went the way it did.

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Edit to say:

As I say - it would better being a separate thread rather than deflect this one. You say it is not about Brexit, but having posted it on a Brexit thread..................

So on that basis - having seen that some on here are indeed using it in a Brexit manner, by view:

Of course this is what the 'impartial' Guardian is hoping people take away from the final message;

"The EU referendum was a battle of dishonesty. It was won by the side with the means to distribute the most plausible lies."

So there we had it - the entire UK government machine to run Project Fear - able to choose the time of the campaign - able to ensure that the time given to the campaign was the shortest possible - able to muzzle key speakers until the start of the campaign and backed up my the EU.

against

Some very few people with very little budget and few resources and very little time - but heh - they had a bus.

FFS - "...........It was won by the side with the means to distribute the most plausible lies."

Yeah - Only if you are that desperate to think that the side with the means was the Leave side.

oh dear.

 

[stonerblue]

Brexit means Brexit.

At what point will the remainer's who invented the terms, hard and soft in an attempt to still get what they wanted pack it the fuck in and accept we are leaving, end of?

Its laughable as they use the term "hard" to bash anyone with.

Theresa May ‘tells ministers to prepare for HARD BREXIT in MAJOR warning to Brussels’