Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[Len Rum]

France benefits from the EU agricultural policies, so while there is a lot of anti EU feelings they voted to keep xmas much like a turkey wanting presents would, it was far more a vote of different groups wanting to oppose Le Pen than any real support for a pro EU candidate.

Far more interesting will be the German elections, there is far more anti EU feelings than the mainstream media is reporting, and with the prospect of having to fund more of the EU budget, the fall out of the open door immigration policy, and the exposure of German banks to the Greece situation, there is now the threat to jobs if they lose the UK trade, plus the small matter of the little fat woman being as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

Well it's either Merkel or Schultz in Germany, and Schultz is the more federalist of the two. So the UK had better hope that Angela ( who is favourite) wins.

 

[west didsblue]

Strange post in a way.
I thought you were going to say that because both sides were ( in your view) of equal strength in negotiations ( i.e. EU not stronger than UK) then a good deal would be struck between both sides. But then you went on to say that you expected a lose lose deal. I agree with you on that point , it's just that your argument seemed to suggest the opposite.

I didn't actually say it would be a lose lose deal but ultimately there would be compromises on both sides that neither side would admit to being acceptable at the moment. The radical remainers seem to reckon that the EU hold all the cards and that we will need to give up more than we have to in the negotiations if we were to achieve favourable market access. I voted remain by the way but accept that we're leaving and that we need to get the best deal we can, and at the moment this means we shouldn't be taking much of the EU rhetoric seriously before we even start negotiating in earnest. Similarly the current hard line about a hard Brexit from our side will undoubtedly soften as the negotiations progress.

 

[Vic]

France benefits from the EU agricultural policies, so while there is a lot of anti EU feelings they voted to keep xmas much like a turkey wanting presents would, it was far more a vote of different groups wanting to oppose Le Pen than any real support for a pro EU candidate.

Far more interesting will be the German elections, there is far more anti EU feelings than the mainstream media is reporting, and with the prospect of having to fund more of the EU budget, the fall out of the open door immigration policy, and the exposure of German banks to the Greece situation, there is now the threat to jobs if they lose the UK trade, plus the small matter of the little fat woman being as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

Wow. 60% of Germans want a turd in their swimming pool. Who knew? Dummkopf (I don't like insulting people but it's OK because of the "little fat woman" jibe).

 

[blueonblue]

Lets see how the little fat one does when the voting is for real shall we ?, you should have cottoned on that polls mean nothing by now, and while I take Lens point that the big two parties are the front runners I think FDP/CSU/AfD will take large chunks out of the pair of them.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Lets see how the little fat one does when the voting is for real shall we ?, you should have cottoned on that polls mean nothing by now, and while I take Lens point that the big two parties are the front runners I think FDP/CSU/AfD will take large chunks out of the pair of them.

The only question of significance for Britain is whether the outcome of the German election will make the Germans more or less inclined to indulge us in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations, sadly for us it won't. Germany's top priority is to ensure that Brexit does not weaken the EU, and that means the UK must not be allowed any kind of special arrangements that could undermine it.

On a more immediate level if we balk at the principle of paying money – leaving Germany to pick up the biggest share of the hole then left in the EU budget – then there will be no deal and we can stew in our own juice.

If Schulz beats Merkel in September’s federal elections, the chances of Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal will rise dramatically. Schulz is no lover of what we've done and he would make us pay for the consequences in full.

I wouldn't fret too much about the German election, we're screwed whatever the outcome, but Len is right, in this Brexit Hobson's choice we should be rooting for Merkel.

 

[blueonblue]

The only question of significance for Britain is whether the outcome of the German election will make the Germans more or less inclined to indulge us in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations, sadly for us it won't. Germany's top priority is to ensure that Brexit does not weaken the EU, and that means the UK must not be allowed any kind of special arrangements that could undermine it.

No, its certain politicians top priority, the German people are getting fed up to the back teeth of the EU and know full well their biggest market is the UK, Germany's priority is that britex wont weaken Germany.

 

[The perfect fumble]

No, its certain politicians top priority, the German people are getting fed up to the back teeth of the EU and know full well their biggest market is the UK, Germany's priority is that britex wont weaken Germany.

Even if you're right and I don't believe you are, we won't be negotiating with the German people, we'll be negotiating with her politicians.

There's none so blind as those who will not see.

 

[blueonblue]

Politicians dont produce, sell, or buy anything, businesses do that, they also stump up "Donations" to political parties, meaning the politicians can make all the noise they want, but when it comes down to cash money they do as they are told.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Politicians dont produce, sell, or buy anything, businesses do that, they also stump up "Donations" to political parties, meaning the politicians can make all the noise they want, but when it comes down to cash money they do as they are told.

What is it with leavers? Own this, embrace the impact! After all you voted for it. All this noises off, undertones, fat capitalism will save us from the repercussions of our actions, is nothing but self delusion.

This desperation to find "leading" German economists, French wine producers, Italian cheese makers borders on pathetic.

Look at what's staring you in the face, embrace reality not delusion. All 27 countries signed up likety split to their negotiating position and they have barely budged an inch. Looking for hair line fractures and changing mood music is an act of desperation.

Will there be movement once the negotiations start? Yes, but not on the fundamentals and it's the fundamentals that will screw us.

 

[blueonblue]

Its the fundamentals that you want to ignore, for all the EU bluster some member countries face financial meltdown if they lose the UK markets, even the almighty Germans will balk at taking a complete lose because they are now going to be left as the biggest contributor without the complication of member states not being able to pay up.

Those German economists, French wine producers, and Italian cheese makers know full well that without the UK as a customer they face serious trouble, just where are they going to flog their wares exactly ?, we run a trade deficit with the EU, so for you to preach this one sided gloom and doom is utter nonsense.

 

[mcfc1632]

I have been saying for months that it is only when the UK not only has a viable walk-away option but the EU become clear that there exists the political will to use it, that the EU will change their arrogant stance. I think that they are starting that journey.

Davis today:

In an interview with the Sunday Times, Mr Davis accused Eurocrats of having 'axes to grind' and suggested other member states were posturing.

He insisted the UK was prepared to walk out if the other 27 member states did not moderate their demands.

'We don't need to just look like we can walk away, we need to be able to walk away. Under the circumstances, if that was necessary, we would be in a position to do it.'

So, it seems that the government holds the same view as I have been putting forward on the UK's need for having a viable walk-away option to temper the excesses of the EU demands. I am certainly not suggesting that makes me 'clever' - you don't not need to be clever to understand this simple fact - just not plain stupid.

Just as well really as the EU are on the brink of finalising their settlement demand:

The divorce demand is now expected to include money they claim is still owed by Britain from the period 2007 to 2013.

There could also be pressure for the UK to hand every EU citizen who has lived in the UK full rights to live and work here and claim benefits.

But Mr Davis rejected that idea out of hand, saying: 'How on earth would you manage such an exercise?'

 

[The perfect fumble]

I have been putting forward on the UK's need for having a viable walk-away option to temper the excesses of the EU demands. I am certainly not suggesting that makes me 'clever' '

At last! Something we can both agree on.

 

[mcfc1632]

Its the fundamentals that you want to ignore, for all the EU bluster some member countries face financial meltdown if they lose the UK markets, even the almighty Germans will balk at taking a complete lose because they are now going to be left as the biggest contributor without the complication of member states not being able to pay up.

Those German economists, French wine producers, and Italian cheese makers know full well that without the UK as a customer they face serious trouble, just where are they going to flog their wares exactly ?, we run a trade deficit with the EU, so for you to preach this one sided gloom and doom is utter nonsense.

You are right - but some just close their eyes and ears - and in some extreme cases even their minds

There is a tremendous amount of angst within Ireland about the impact of Brexit and the lobbying of the Irish government to secure 'special terms' in the negotiations. Comments are being made about access to special EU funding to compensate for the impact.

How will that work? Surely every sector within each of those countries that have significant trade with the UK are also going to want such support - who is going to pay for it if we do not offer up 100bn

 

[mcfc1632]

At last! Something we can both agree on.

I do not claim to be clever - as I said:

"I am certainly not suggesting that makes me 'clever' - you don't not need to be clever to understand this simple fact - just not plain stupid."

Now are you going to ever answer that negotiating question or are you still claiming that you do not know to what I am referring - shall I repeat it for you

Then you can demonstrate to us all just how clever you are

 

[The perfect fumble]

I do not claim to be clever - as I said:

"I am certainly not suggesting that makes me 'clever' - you don't not need to be clever to understand this simple fact - just not plain stupid."

Now are you going to ever answer that negotiating question or are you still claiming that you do not know to what I am referring - shall I repeat it for you

Then you can demonstrate to us all just how clever you are

Yes.

Definition of viable in English:

Viable: Capable of working successfully.

There are a number of scenarios that might emerge from our Brexit negotiations, they range from painful to dreadful.

A walk-away option falls way outside of the above and descends in to catastrophic. Therefore there is no viable walk-away option, because such an option does not encompass the central definition of viable.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

Yes.

Definition of viable in English:

Viable: Capable of working successfully.

There are a number of scenarios that might emerge from our Brexit negotiations, they range from painful to dreadful.

A walk-away option falls way outside of the above and descends in to catastrophic. Therefore there is no viable walk-away option, because such an option does not encompass the central definition of viable.

In your view.

 

[The perfect fumble]

In your view.

No. If you ever bothered to read you'll find there are no "successful" walk away solutions.

There are "no pain, no gain" fantasists urging us to walk away with a two fingered salute, but even they don't pretend there'll be no pain (pain is the go to word for Europhobes for utterly awful).

 

[JULES]

Yes.

Definition of viable in English:

Viable: Capable of working successfully.

There are a number of scenarios that might emerge from our Brexit negotiations, they range from painful to dreadful.

A walk-away option falls way outside of the above and descends in to catastrophic. Therefore there is no viable walk-away option, because such an option does not encompass the central definition of viable.

what a pile of shit

 

[The perfect fumble]

what a pile of shit

Shit hot analysis.

 

[blueonblue]

A walk-away option falls way outside of the above and descends in to catastrophic. Therefore there is no viable walk-away option, because such an option does not encompass the central definition of viable.

Utter tosh !, lets take your doom to the ultimate extreme, there will be absolutely no trade whatever with any EU country.

Result - we lose a deficit trading arrangement, we are no longer paying a very large kick back to a parasite organisation with delusions of world domination, the goods we no longer buy from them will be replaced by either home grown or from countries that want to trade freely, the goods we sold to them will be available for purchase here or sold to countries that want trade.

There is nothing we HAVE to buy from an EU country, we are one of the biggest economies on the planet not some third world backwater with a begging bowl, we are a global player and have been for a f*cking long time.