Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[the god Gerry Gow]

I give it a month at most.
There is not a snowball in hells chance of any form of Brexit happening.

 

[CitizenTID]

Tories can't even manage smooth negotiation with 10 MPs ffs.

 

[sir baconface]

In May 2016 Farage said that a narrow 52-48% win for Remain side would be “unfinished business” and would prompt him to fight for a second referendum. So why can't we have a second vote once details of the deal are announced?

Two answers spring to mind:
a) Farage was speaking on behalf of a party that currently has no MPs.
b) The party touting this policy in their election manifesto was LibDem. They won 12 seats.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Tories can't even manage smooth negotiation with 10 MPs ffs.

bodes well doesn't it?

However as many assured me on Bluemoon this was going to be a walk over and the EU need us more than we need them so we should piss it inside a year shouldn't we?

 

[BobKowalski]

bodes well doesn't it?

However as many assured me on Bluemoon this was going to be a walk over and the EU need us more than we need them so we should piss it inside a year shouldn't we?

A year? 6 months mate. Once we play the German carmakers card it will be all over. Bunting, street parties and much rejoicing will fall upon this land. Can't wait personally.

 

[bluethrunthru]

A year? 6 months mate. Once we play the German carmakers card it will be all over. Bunting, street parties and much rejoicing will fall upon this land. Can't wait personally.

wow - I'll have a pint of what you are on..............

 

[The perfect fumble]

The pivotal moment will be when the divorce bill is leaked, there'll be a collective "Fuck Me!" Maybe a couple of major employers upping stumps, or threatening to. We'll see then whether the Tories can hold their nerve, especially if the polls start to really move and food prices keep rising against a backdrop of stagnant wages.

My money is still on us leaving, but if Merkel were to offer a temporary seven year limit on immigration, that was muted not too long ago, who knows.

 

[Vic]

Hammond says the people voted for Brexit, they didn't vote to be poorer. That's a sort of cake and eat it in reverse, isn't it?

As the Brexit vote is already making us poorer, that is what the people voted for. The big question is "Did they know?" and then if they did, "Did they mean it?" Did they vote to leave even though it would make us poorer, or did they really not believe "project fear"? The real culprits in this are the people who called the warnings "project fear" - especially those like Boris who knew the fears were real but opted to get behind Leave for his own political career prospects. Then there's May who actually said it would be bad, but didn't say it publicly, then went Uber-Remain for her own political career prospects. (I think Boris just remembered his debating society days when you had to argue a case when you really believed the opposite.)

What do you now call Remoaners who, having been told to suck it up, didn't, and now are seeing some fruits from their persistence? Remoanermainers? Or just right?

 

[bluethrunthru]

The conservatives have spent 40 years fighting each other over Europe. Some of them got their referendum and have dragged us all into their squabble which continues but instead of the Tory party being the only thing affected by the fall out now its all of us FFS

 

[goalmole]

The pivotal moment will be when the divorce bill is leaked, there'll be a collective "Fuck Me!" Maybe a couple of major employers upping stumps, or threatening to. We'll see then whether the Tories can hold their nerve, especially if the polls start to really move and food prices keep rising against a backdrop of stagnant wages.

My money is still on us leaving, but if Merkel were to offer a temporary seven year limit on immigration, that was muted not too long ago, who knows.

Do they even want us to stay anymore. For decades we have been a drag on their ambitions of closer integration and the Brexit vote was the culmination of that. No, No, No, and all that. Would they really want to keep us and return to the status quo ante or do they see this as an opportunity to finally rid themselves of us once and for all and the only thing they are negotiating for is to rub our noses in it and make an example of us.
I'd love to know what is really in the minds of the EU.

 

[BobKowalski]

wow - I'll have a pint of what you are on..............

Brexiteer Ale. Guaranteed to rot the brain and ensure you see the future through a blue and red haze...

 

[bluethrunthru]

Brexiteer Ale. Guaranteed to rot the brain and ensure you see the future through a blue and red haze...

sadly for you mate the other 27 countries are on mineral water and won't just agree to anything as long as some German car makers are ok...........we have to agree to pay them ££££££££'s before anything else

 

[The perfect fumble]

Do they even want us to stay anymore. For decades we have been a drag on their ambitions of closer integration and the Brexit vote was the culmination of that. No, No, No, and all that. Would they really want to keep us and return to the status quo ante or do they see this as an opportunity to finally rid themselves of us once and for all and the only thing they are negotiating for is to rub our noses in it and make an example of us.
I'd love to know what is really in the minds of the EU.

We're getting ahead of ourselves. In the unlikely event we lose our Brexit nerve at the last minute and climb back in, we won't be the same animal. A brush with harsh reality will wipe away a lot of that jingoistic bollocks.

I'm a remainer, but I firmly believe we're leaving, just not in the way a lot leavers envisaged.

PS: that letter signed by 50 Labour MPs urging us to stay in the single market could be very useful for Labour. Corbyn will probably not comment on it, he will continue to state we're leaving to keep the leavers who've deserted UKIP and voted Labour onside, but if the mood music in the country were to change, he could quite legitimately start talking about it with the Blairites, use it as a vehicle to build bridges with them, at least that would be the public face of it and if things significantly started turning in that direction he could use it as a mechanism to do a U turn.

If the public mood does not change he can always say, because it will be true, that he's never changed his position on it.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

So I see Labour are already abandoning their failed manifesto.


You can remove the word hard as we all know remaining in the Single Market means remaining in the EU.

i agree. labour ran on leaving the single market and ending FOM, if they go against that they have just lied to the public. there in a mess with their brexit position.

 

[BobKowalski]

Do they even want us to stay anymore. For decades we have been a drag on their ambitions of closer integration and the Brexit vote was the culmination of that. No, No, No, and all that. Would they really want to keep us and return to the status quo ante or do they see this as an opportunity to finally rid themselves of us once and for all and the only thing they are negotiating for is to rub our noses in it and make an example of us.
I'd love to know what is really in the minds of the EU.

Right now I think the EU is half inclined to get shot of us. 6 months of our crack negotiating team smearing themselves in their own faeces and they will be blockading the ports and the Channel Tunnel.

On a more serious note the way I see it going is we get a divorce deal which everyone signs off with the Irish border and trade relationship unresolved. Consequently we get a three year transitional deal which maintains the current trading relationship - single market, customs union the works - whilst we 'work out a trading deal going forward' which is never going to happen because we are never going to agree amongst ourselves let alone with 27 other countries. Politically we will be neutered within the EU and everyone carries on like it never happened with the 'transitional deal' nodded through every three years.

And this is my optimistic take.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

This is somethign that's repeated a lot.

I do think there are some who want the thing to be a fiasco in order to point and laugh at the Leave side.
However, I do not think they want that to happen at the expense of the UK going down the pan - assuming that there is no change of heart over Brexit happening, it strikes me as purely a philosophical idea.

yep its not all remainers, but its obvious are fair few want the economy to 'go down the pan ' and the talks to fail. I've seen it on here loads, almost wishful thinking. imo.

 

[bluethrunthru]

yep its not all remainers, but its obvious are fair few want the economy to 'go down the pan ' and the talks to fail. I've seen it on here loads, almost wishful thinking. imo.

far from it - as a Remainer I want the economy to succeed I just feel that the best chance of continued success was from within the EU where - as a member - we should have fought hard to reform from within.

Now we are going to get the worst of all worlds in my view. The governments fucking about for 12 months before launching A50 then instead of getting on with it they fucked about with a disasterous election and they have royally pissed the EU off. UK banks and insurers are eyeing up new premises abroad to move some if not all of their head office functions into the EU which will diminish the amount of work and therefore jobs and tax take in the UK and the car manufacturers now getting cold feet on the whole thing anyway.

On the back of that we aren't anywhere near being able to negotiate any possible deals with the rest of the world any time soon meaning we could be out of the EU with few if any trade deals to replace them in 18 months time.

Thats the Brexit reality mate - not the Remainers doing and not what any of us wanted but a future being gifted us and our kids all so some people can boast we can make all our own laws - whoopeee fucking doooo

 

[goalmole]

yep its not all remainers, but its obvious are fair few want the economy to 'go down the pan ' and the talks to fail. I've seen it on here loads, almost wishful thinking. imo.

I can't speak for all remainers, just for myself. I don't think anybody wants the economy to go down the pan just to prove that we were right all along. However, the fear is that if Brexit is taken to it's conclusion then that is what is likely to happen. Everything that has happened so far, the Pound, inflation, political turmoil and disarray, lack of vision and a coherent strategy, has reinforced our fears that the whole Brexit project is being fueled by ideological zeal with the economy and welfare of society coming a very poor and distant second.

 

[goalmole]

far from it - as a Remainer I want the economy to succeed I just feel that the best chance of continued success was from within the EU where - as a member - we should have fought hard to reform from within.

Now we are going to get the worst of all worlds in my view. The governments fucking about for 12 months before launching A50 then instead of getting on with it they fucked about with a disasterous election and they have royally pissed the EU off. UK banks and insurers are eyeing up new premises abroad to move some if not all of their head office functions into the EU which will diminish the amount of work and therefore jobs and tax take in the UK and the car manufacturers now getting cold feet on the whole thing anyway.

On the back of that we aren't anywhere near being able to negotiate any possible deals with the rest of the world any time soon meaning we could be out of the EU with few if any trade deals to replace them in 18 months time.

Thats the Brexit reality mate - not the Remainers doing and not what any of us wanted but a future being gifted us and our kids all so some people can boast we can make all our own laws - whoopeee fucking doooo

The car manufacturers have always been clear about the fact that they are only here because of the EU. Knowing this to be a fact, the most surreal image of the referendum was voters in Sunderland cheering the leave vote winning in their constituency. What did or do they think is going to happen to the car, and other, plants that have been set up in this country by foreign manufacturers to supply the European market.

 

[Bill]

i agree. labour ran on leaving the single market and ending FOM, if they go against that they have just lied to the public. there in a mess with their brexit position.

They ALWAYS lie to the public.