Football is fixed blog

[BlueAnorak]

I did. I think I’ve done it up to the end of last season. You’d imagine that over the course of a number of seasons there would be no statistically significant differences between the figures for the individual refs when refereeing specific clubs. So if a club has an average of 2 points per game over 8 seasons, you would expect individual refs to show figures between 1.8 and 2.2 for games involving that clubs. Maybe 1.75 to 2.25. But there are some spectacular statistical anomalies.

Atkinson is generally OK for all the top six but there's a staggering anomaly for Dean and Arsenal. Their average PPG for all PL games from 2010/11 to 2016/17 is 1.93 but under the 27 games reffed by Dean it's 1.11. That's statistically significant and suggests something's wrong. Oliver's even worse although he's done less games (18 to Dean's 27). Jones an Moss on the other hand seem to significantly favour Arsenal.

Mason significantly favours the rags, with 2.73 PPG and Moss returns 2.53 for them compared to their overall average of 1.99.

All the rest are more or less OK and, believe it or not, Taylor is by far the most consistent across the top 6.

Unsurprising.
PGMOL needs to use statistics like this to measure referee performance to abolish bias.

 

[SebastianBlue]

That Dean listing isn't really very convincing. An early issue is strong, the removal from a cup final seems valid but not unknown, a demotion after a bad match or two but much of the rest is either wholly speculative or irrelevant (who cares if Arsenal fans started a petition - it doesn't prove anything).

The video evidence (I saw a longer video a few months ago showing his reactions to good/bad play by his favoured club) is fairly convincing, though.

No referee should be so committed to one team as to have reactions to play—WHILE OFFICIATING THE MATCH—that are the same as we supporters. There’s another more comprehensive list kicking about, too—I am having trouble finding it but I’ll post it here once I do.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

The video evidence (I saw a longer video a few months ago showing his reactions to good/bad play by his favoured club) is fairly convincing, though.

No referee should be so committed to one team as to have reactions to play—WHILE OFFICIATING THE MATCH—that are the same as we supporters. There’s another more comprehensive list kicking about, too—I am having trouble finding it but I’ll post it here once I do.

Fair enough. I just thought the balance of the extracts given would make me go the other way. A standing problem with internet conspiracies is the inclusion of stats abused badly. I didn't know about the gambling one at the start.

I've heard the Dean/Arsenal thing before though. He still lives in the Wirral I thought, and still rarely refs Liverpool or Everton, so that one looks rubbish. 25 PL matches this season - none for either club.

 

[half & half derby scarf]

He still lives in the Wirral I thought, and still rarely refs Liverpool or Everton, so that one looks rubbish. 25 PL matches this season - none for either club.

Don't think you read through it properly then. In addition the point was that the cumulative effect is damning.

 

[cptaidan88]

Unsurprising.
PGMOL needs to use statistics like this to measure referee performance to abolish bias.

Surely that would increase it? Dean apparently fucks over Arsenal a lot so if he and everyone else knew that he would choose to try and even it up in games, including those against City?

 

[aguero93:20]

It would more likely be 5-0 And 5-0. But as Southampton have the better Goals scored record, I think it is unlikely - especially as Southampton will park the bus from becoming to end of this game.

There's a 9 difference in GD, if it's 10 goals scored won't be a factor.

 

[aguero93:20]

Fair enough. I just thought the balance of the extracts given would make me go the other way. A standing problem with internet conspiracies is the inclusion of stats abused badly. I didn't know about the gambling one at the start.

I've heard the Dean/Arsenal thing before though. He still lives in the Wirral I thought, and still rarely refs Liverpool or Everton, so that one looks rubbish. 25 PL matches this season - none for either club.

Moved to North Wales to change local FA mate. We need a European pool of referees with none refereeing in their home league, for 6 figure salaries they can't complain about that.

 

[mat]

http://www.insideworldfootball.com/...al-chapter-spanish-ref-firing-line-cup-final/

At the end of a season of unprecedented turmoil and allegations of corruption that have pointed to matchfixing and match manipulation within the highest administrative levels of the Greek game, the Hellenic Football Federation (HFF) have finally decided to fly in a non-Greek referee for the final match of its season.

Too little too late? Certainly the decision is viewed within Greek football with more than a small amount of cynicism and ridicule, coming after the Greek Super League has completed and the Champions League qualifying places decided.

The Greek cup final, while not meaningless in terms of local honours, will have no impact on the financially-important European clubs qualifying places. With those places decided, so the argument goes, why not have a match that is refereed by an independent?

The call for international referees to take charge of the top tier of the Greek game was infact made by a number of Greek clubs at the start of the season, nervous of the integrity of Greek referees who they felt would be too easily ‘bought’ by the clubs with most influence within the HFF.

The appointment of Spanish ref David Borbalan suggests that the HFF is agreeing with this assessment, but only after the big prizes have been won – none, unsurprisingly, going to those that suggested non-Greek referees back at the season start.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Moved to North Wales to change local FA mate. We need a European pool of referees with none refereeing in their home league, for 6 figure salaries they can't complain about that.

I understood that, and he's associated with Cheshire FA. It still stands that he hasn't reffed Liverpool or Everton this season, so it's not something that holds a lot of water.

I would agree that the ref pool needs expanding - Italy and Germany have around 40 each, England has around 20 at the top level, many of whom do very few matches.

 

[aguero93:20]

I understood that, and he's associated with Cheshire FA. It still stands that he hasn't reffed Liverpool or Everton this season, so it's not something that holds a lot of water.

I would agree that the ref pool needs expanding - Italy and Germany have around 40 each, England has around 20 at the top level, many of whom do very few matches.

It needs globalizing not expanding. Spanish/German refs are more likely to be neutral about a West Ham v Everton game than an English ref.
I'm Irish, dual citizenship in the UK and Ireland, a City supporter. I wouldn't be allowed to referee games by either Manchester club but I'd be allowed to referee Liverpool, Everton, Villa, Leeds, Hull, Arsenal, MK Dons, Spurs, Chelsea, West Ham and AFC Wimbledon games.

I'd quite happily fuck all of them bar Arsenal, the Hammers and Wimbledon. Even trying to be unbiased I'd subconsciously favour those teams.