How many trophies will we win?

9
CityInWashingtonState said:
Our squad is better.

But we've more injuries.

Our run-in in the P/L is tougher and we've more games to play.

We're competing in more competitions (FA Cup) and may experience injuries to key players in the FA Cup final or in the P/L fixture that Liverpool has over us - in other words, our key players will face two more games to remain injury free than Liverpool's.
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So... I think we'll probably win the P/L - but its' very close.

It's more likely for me by far that we'll win the FA Cup.

As for the C/L - we should beat Spurs - but our next opponent will be stronger still. And then we face a likely even stronger opponent in the final.
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For me - the quadruple is extremely unlikely.

I think we're likely to win the FA Cup.

I hope we win the P/L - our run-in is tough and we've an extra game which we likely need to win.

The C/L is remote. Against any opponent remaining - I think I'd favor us - but to win 5 matches against 3 very strong opponents meanwhile competing for the P/L and FA cup and having already experienced injuries to key players... I think that among the remaining sides we're favorites to win the C/L - but I rate our chances at doing so maybe 35 to 50% or so given the circumstances.
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Some good points but 1 win in 5 may do it for the CL as long as it's the final, but I know what you mean. I've got a horrid image of the scouse shite getting their grubby hands on the PL though. This has been exacerbated by watching a film on Fri night and the end credits were weirdly accompanied by "Walk on". This was just after I looked at the Sou v Liv result. Bizzare but that really happened.
 
simon23 said:
I think the champs league is very unlikely and i dont think we will win the league either due to injuries and the dippers managing to scrape throguh in the last few games...i can only see Chelski having a reasonable chance of taking points off them and I can see us dropping points vs palace and possibly utd/leicester (who always give us a problem)
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We are coasting through games the dippers are scrapping through, by my reckoning that makes them more likely to drop points.
 
Roachy said:
9

Some good points but 1 win in 5 may do it for the CL as long as it's the final, but I know what you mean. I've got a horrid image of the scouse shite getting their grubby hands on the PL though. This has been exacerbated by watching a film on Fri night and the end credits were weirdly accompanied by "Walk on". This was just after I looked at the Sou v Liv result. Bizzare but that really happened.
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Yep...
The Scouse are too close for comfort in the P/L.

Bottom line though... here's the thing.

I think that we'll win the F/A cup with a likelihood of say 75+%.

I think that we'll win the P/L with a likelihood of 55+%.

The P/L is very tough due to our run-in and other competitions that we're in - as a huge City fan, coloring my opinion - I'm going to say that we've a 55% chance at winning the P/L - remember, we don't face Liverpool so, unless we win all remaining games - Liverpool could win the title simply by wining all their remaining fixtures.

I think that we'll win the C/L with a likelihood of 55% - optimistically given the competitions we're now faced with.
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So, our chances... very optimistically - of winning the quadruple are .75*.55*.55 = roughly 23%.

In spite of the fact that I think that we're favorites to win any single one of our remaining competitions.

Pep is absoultelyh correct - the quadurple is very unlikely.
 
If it hadn't been for the Crystal Palace, Everton, Tottenham and Fulham goalkeepers gifting Liverpool wins we would have been on the verge of the treble already.
 
br88 said:
If it hadn't been for the Crystal Palace, Everton, Tottenham and Fulham goalkeepers gifting Liverpool wins we would have been on the verge of the treble already.
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Or us throwing away leads against palace, Leicester or Newcastle,even draws would have done the job ...
 
CityInWashingtonState said:
Yep...
The Scouse are too close for comfort in the P/L.

Bottom line though... here's the thing.

I think that we'll win the F/A cup with a likelihood of say 75+%.

I think that we'll win the P/L with a likelihood of 55+%.

The P/L is very tough due to our run-in and other competitions that we're in - as a huge City fan, coloring my opinion - I'm going to say that we've a 55% chance at winning the P/L - remember, we don't face Liverpool so, unless we win all remaining games - Liverpool could win the title simply by wining all their remaining fixtures.

I think that we'll win the C/L with a likelihood of 55% - optimistically given the competitions we're now faced with.
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So, our chances... very optimistically - of winning the quadruple are .75*.55*.55 = roughly 23%.

In spite of the fact that I think that we're favorites to win any single one of our remaining competitions.

Pep is absoultelyh correct - the quadurple is very unlikely.
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You really think there’s a 55% chance of us winning the Champions League!? You best put your life savings on it then because the markets must be giving a lot of value in your eyes! By your estimation of our chances we should be about 4/5 to win it (5 divided by 9 is close to 55%). Odds on!

The bookies see it at around 29% chance, but they’ve got to make their money, so that’s still higher than reality. We wouldn’t even be 55% likely to win the final, unless there’s a shock team that makes it there, never mind winning the QF, SF and Final.
 
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This is new ....podcast from minute 11 onwards.....some joker says , if city win the quadruple - it will be likely Pep will leave as he can't achieve anything more. No sources , just a "feeling "

This is of course from the BBC .
 
Tricky_Trev said:
You really think there’s a 55% chance of us winning the Champions League!? You best put your life savings on it then because the markets must be giving a lot of value in your eyes! By your estimation of our chances we should be about 4/5 to win it (5 divided by 9 is close to 55%). Odds on!

The bookies see it at around 29% chance, but they’ve got to make their money, so that’s still higher than reality. We wouldn’t even be 55% likely to win the final, unless there’s a shock team that makes it there, never mind winning the QF, SF and Final.
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He's off with the individual percentages, but the overall percentage isn't too far away from what the bookies reckon.
 
razman said:


This is new ....podcast from minute 11 onwards.....some joker says , if city win the quadruple - it will be likely Pep will leave as he can't achieve anything more. No sources , just a "feeling "

This is of course from the BBC .
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If we did win the quad, which would actually be a quin anyway, I wouldn’t care what Pep did tbh!
 
razman said:
This is new ....podcast from minute 11 onwards.....some joker says , if city win the quadruple - it will be likely Pep will leave as he can't achieve anything more. No sources , just a "feeling "

This is of course from the BBC .
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I'm surprised he didn't say Pep will stick around to prove we are a great team by winning back to back quadruples.
 
Former City midfielder Michael Brown speculated on the BBC Football Daily podcast from yesterday that he believes Pep will leave if City win the quadruple.

So, in a hypothetical scenario in which this is true (which isn't too outlandish), would you rather:

1. City win the quadruple and Pep leaves.
2. City don't win the quadruple and Pep stays.
 
#PepOut

Someone needs to point out to Brown that Guardiola cleaned the board in 2008/09 and stayed on.
 
Win the quadruple.

Pep can go after that and City can be shite for the rest of my life. I will dine off that like a Liverpool fan dines off Istanbul.

Pep would likely stay on anyway. Back to back CL titles and three league titles in a row will be huge incentives for him. He wants to be the best and until he does something like that there are other managers who have technically done better.

For me I would happily sack off the CL for a domestic treble but luckily we have a manager that wants them all! League title is main aim. FA Cup 2nd and CL 3rd in my priorities.
 
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