Another new Brexit thread

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Genuine and capable?

There was no mention of no deal. Given that the legal way to leave was under Article 50 which gave two years to do a deal, the presumption must be that Leave involved a deal (and it's been asked before - give us a quote from any prominent Leaver that there would not be a deal).

I take your point, but you are making some pretty key assumptions about the motivations of brexit voters. I agree though that the assumption of a deal may have been a decisive factor in leave winning the referendum.

 

[aguero93:20]

What are you worried about?
There will still be clean drinking water and a plentiful supply of Mars Bars after a no deal Brexit according to Bonson.
Gammons cheered him to the rafters apparently after he made this announcement.
PS Oh and planes will still fly.

Not here they won't, or anywhere we have a veto.

 

[aguero93:20]

Not sure it is clever or sensible really. It seems both sides of the,argument regard the existing deal as unacceptable at present, therefore it's a fair assumption that there needs to be a renegotiation. The threat of no deal and the 39 billion are possibly the only leverage that can be used to draw the EU back into negotiations. Without that they will of course refuse to renegotiate what is an excellent deal for the EU as it stands. I'm not a great proponent of a no deal brexit, and actually very much doubt Boris is, as he's probably just playing to the gallery in the tory leadership elections. To legislatively remove no deal/perogation at this stage is manifestly stupid, although I could see the sense in it if it genuinely looked like Boris was going to do it. As it stands this just increases the likelihood of a deal very like the existing one being pushed through, which as we know seems to uniquely combine the very worst aspects of remain and brexit.

No open border, no deal. You lot need to accept that. Once you do, we can talk.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Once it's done one way or the other, (my belief is that we will stay in), then it will immediately go back to how it was before. No one really cares about being in or out of the EU. The referendum was a protest vote where people were basically saying they were fed up of being poor and were taken in by it all being the EU's fault.

Of course there is a sizeable minority who hate all things European and will continue to want us out at any cost, but the timing of the referendum with the rise of echo chambers on social media created a perfect storm of popularism that made leave actually win.

No one expected it. Nobody was prepared. Politicians have spent 3 years trying to make it work without it destroying the economy and the UK.

They've failed. Now we have Johnson next in line to have a go. He'll fail too as there isn't a better future short or long term outside of the single market.

All that remains to be seen is how they orchestrate it.

I agree that we will stay in and that it was an ill-timed protest vote. I suspect Boris will make some typically Boris u-turns and kick the can further than ever down the road, perhaps setting a date for another referendum well into the future. The solution to all of this will be to create a more pressing national issue to force brexit off the top of the agenda for both leavers and Remainers alike. I believe this will be either an economic collapse, a pandemic, or most likely war or conflict. There exist opportunities to stimulate this within the current global context.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

No open border, no deal. You lot need to accept that. Once you do, we can talk.

Its more to do with what 'you lot' will accept as it's your country.

 

[aguero93:20]

Ha, I’m sure the DUP that are currently propping up the government would be fine with this!

The DUP will be behind revoking soon, otherwise there'll be a GE and they'll all lose their seats to the UUP, as they've acted against their electorates opinions for the last 3 years and they're very much persona non grata atm.

 

[aguero93:20]

Its more to do with what 'you lot' will accept as it's your country.

Not all of it, thanks to you. We've still got half a million citizens in the north though and if you fuck them then you've got nothing you could actually use as leverage, we'll see you fucked. It is what it is and it'll be well beyond rational.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The DUP will be behind revoking soon, otherwise there'll be a GE and they'll all lose their seats to the UUP, as they've acted against their electorates opinions for the last 3 years and they're very much persona non grata atm.

Good news. I personally find it hard to find anything to like about the Dup. They seem a bit shouty and angry.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Not all of it, thanks to you. We've still got half a million citizens in the north though and if you fuck them then you've got nothing you could actually use as leverage, we'll see you fucked. It is what it is and it'll be well beyond rational.

That's a bit fucking ungrateful. We did a nice job of partitioning your country and have a long history of success in this respect from Persia to the kashmir ;-)

 

[Ban-jani]

A happy co-incidence.
Difficult but discussed intelligently on Politics Live today 5 minutes in https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0006vtp/politics-live-18072019

That’s already been shot down by other MP’s.

It doesn’t allow health and safety checks and therefore cannot happen.

If a vehicle meets UK health and Safety but not EU then where is the check going to take place?

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

A £30bn hit to the economy is a small price to pay for blue passports, being allowed to use Sterling again (control of our money), and freedom from imaginary EU regulations made up by Boris Fucking Johnson.

Will the ration books be in the same colour blue as the passports?

 

[aguero93:20]

That's a bit fucking ungrateful. We did a nice job of partitioning your country and have a long history of success in this respect from Persia to the kashmir ;-)

Yeah, you got some private school kids to draw lines across maps they'd never visited.

 

[aguero93:20]

Good news. I personally find it hard to find anything to like about the Dup. They seem a bit shouty and angry.

The no party. Brexit might be the death of them and thank God if so.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

No open border, no deal. You lot need to accept that. Once you do, we can talk.

The solution is simple ..... Customs Union and Single Market



But ......... Conservatives and their ideology eh?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

No open border, no deal. You lot need to accept that. Once you do, we can talk.

Occam was an Irishman.

 

[mcfc1632]

If we accept that, then anyone that moves to prevent brexit on the basis of the 'deal' are manifestly lying and are simply trying to stop brexit. I'd have more time for this if it was honestly stated, but it seems a case of the very same folk who get upset by arcane laws like perogation are happy enough when other technical legal points serve their purpose. That would be fine if those same folk didn't ask us to trust/believe them and characterise others as deceitful.

I admire the manner in which you explain the right of matters in a calm and unemotional fashion

There is clear accuracy in what you post

 

[mcfc1632]

I meant both sides of the argument here in the UK, not UK vs EU. You may well be correct about the deal as I don't know the details of the negotiations. The fact that you characterise stuff as shit or stupid makes me wonder if you are no better informed than me though and you are just trying to present opinion as fact. This is an issue for both extremes of the debate.

Don't be misled about the state of the negotiations

The current WA is a utterly dreadful deal for the UK

Whilst from a Brexit supporting group - I think that this is a useful and calm explanation of some of the reasons why the UK cannot possible sign this WA.

https://brexitcentral.com/northern-irish-backstop-makes-draft-withdrawal-agreement-unpalatable/

It is quite a short but useful read and the section most helpful is:

"But this backstop may never come into effect, surely. And the EU assures us it is temporary (but they won’t re-open the text to commit to that) while we sort out our future relationship. In fact no: the backstop as drafted is effectively permanent and it determines everything about the future relationship.

That is because the Withdrawal Agreement is explicit that the Irish Protocol stays fully in place “unless and until” it is replaced. Replacement is contemplated of course, in the form of a new trading relationship between the EU and the UK, but that new relationship will require assent from all EU member states, including Ireland.

So imagine if Ireland said, as is very likely, that they wanted the special economic status that Northern Ireland has in the backstop rolled over into the new trading relationship. Without that they’d veto the future trade deal. The UK could say no, and do without a formal trade deal. But then the backstop would remain in force, because it wouldn’t have been replaced. So if we agree to the demand, Northern Ireland retains its special status. And if we say no, Northern Ireland retains its special status. It’s the perfect EU snooker. Who would sign that?"

The border issue has been deliberately weaponised by he EU and should we be stupid enough to sign the WA it will be used and abused for many years to come - beyond the border issue - to achieve many EU aims that are seriously detrimental to the UK.

People that suggest that the UK should sign it or that it is best deal that can be achieved either, IMO, do not understand the detail, or do not put the UK's interests as a priority beyond their hatred of Brexit.

 

[cibaman]

Scotland will break away from the Union before you’ll ever see a 32 county Ireland.
IMO even with a majority vote both sides of the border there would be trouble up North.
I don’t see there being a majority up north though anyway.
The dual citizenship and the aspirations of all to be either is the beauty of the working relationship in the GFA. I’d hate to see anything fnck with that in my remaining lifetime.

Hasn't the ROI government said they wouldn't want unification to take place unless there's a significant majority in favour in NI? They've seen how divisive it is to take such a momentous decision on the basis of a slim majority. Also I don't think they want a border poll to be dominated by brexit.

 

[cibaman]

There is absolutely no good reason that Northern Ireland should be different from any other part of a UK outside the EU. The land border issues with the Republic do not threaten the GFA and can be resolved with perseverance and good faith by all parties without compromising the legal integrity of the EU.

I agree. It just can't be achieved within the the timescales that are acceptable to the ERG

 

[aguero93:20]

Occam was an Irishman.

Good for him. He can go and fuck off though.