The ERG can be relied upon to put expedience ahead of principle if they think Brexit is at really at risk, but I agree with you that the parliamentary Remain majority will seize the likely opportunity to revoke or at worst force a second referendum.There is still no way I see it happening. If you play every sceario through it doesnt work.
1, No Deal - HoC steps in and brimngs down Gov forces extension and GE.
2, Deal - The EU will not shift on the need for a backstop or something that does the exact same - the ERG are to entrenched to vote for any deal. Boris fails and back to 1.
The only thing that i see that breaks the cycle is boris using a 2nd ref as a threat against the ERG - vote for this or its a 2nd ref. He knows that he looses any snap election so this would have some appeal. He can campaign for no deal while secretley hoping remain wins and he gets to see out the rest of the term as PM without having to deal with brexit.
Wise words on here have clearly stated that:We should have begun preparing for no deal the day after the referendum result. The EU are many things but they’re not stupid. They knew May was talking bollocks. They won’t move unless or until they believe no deal is a genuine possibility.
The Government cannot "force" an extension, the EU must first agree to one.
Yes indeed, the closeness in the polls simply demanded that as part of basic managementTbf the no deal scenario should have been prepared before the referendum. I seem to recall the planning centered around a remain vote.
Nope - that first part is just patently, utterly and demonstrably wrongHow? To prepare for a no deal scenario properly would take a decade and cost billions to turn our integrated EU economy into one that could stand alone. And then we vote Remain? Makes no sense.
Leave only worked if nothing changes which was pretty much the entire basis of the Leave campaign. Problem is that ‘nothing changes’ is purile horseshit. Three years later the bill is in and the U.K. hasn’t got the funds to cover it’s reckless bet. Which I guess is why the Tories have called for Captain Kipper to rescue the situation. It’s fucking hilarious.
RawkThe Government cannot "force" an extension, the EU must first agree to one.
My word you are calm and considered - bravoThere is probably a reasonable level of preparedness somewhere in between what you describe and not preparing at all which is what happened.
The Government cannot "force" an extension, the EU must first agree to one.
I wouldn't entirely rule out 1 leading to leaving this year.
Again spot onI see preparation for deal, no deal, and indeed remain as a basic responsibility of the civil service / govt prior, during and after the vote. I'm sure most of us in our daily work and domestic lives have to do contingency planning - it's a big part of adulthood. I respect your point regarding the difficulty of no deal and the leave campaign, but you seem to be making an assumption regarding brexit that all or a majority voters were motivated by a deal. There was no mention of any deal on the ballot paper.
I don't think solutions come into it, just what is likely to happen given the parlous state we're in.Revoking won’t solve anything. Nor will a 2nd Ref as if Remain wins the campaign to Leave would start immediately. Rory Stewart gave a good interview on LBC a while ago about this
We need compromise and that usually means the worst bad and something everyone can live with. Short of the DUP, I think now, most could live with the Backstop particularly no reasonable alternative is on the table - sign the current WA and let’s put this whole episode down to experience
The EU will always act to prevent a no deal / crash out scenario. They can not be seen to be exploiting their stronger position as that will feed the alt right agenda. They will ensure that if this goes wrong it will be 100% down to our actions and not theres. Extensions could run for years on this basis as they will offer and leave us to accept or not.
The vote yesterday gave an indication of the oposition to no deal and that is before numerous ministers resign, i suspect even May will eventually rebel and vote against the government on this if it comes to it. Boris has no real majority - as i have said before at least 50 tory MPs actively despise him. He will be effectively powerless from day 1 - the only question is how much rope they give him.
If I was not on the phone I would post that Gif on an audience clappingI think you mean that you only recognise one view as extreme, which is of course your right. I personally think that unless you explore both extremes of a polarised binary debate then it's not possible to define a balanced view - but I accept this may be a bias in my own perception. I'm instinctively wary of anyone who claims to be completely 'right' in what is clearly a complex argument. It's amazing how many folk on either side of the argument claim to have an unarguably correct view and define those that don't agree as idiots,extremists, deluded - pick whatever insult you like.
Yes there is that of course.....Unless you want to stop brexit entirely of course, in which case it makes perfect sense to torpedo the UK negotiating position and strangle the process in parliamentary red tape.
We were fed nothing but it so we ate it.Bellicosity for breakfast?
It's a shame you only managed two appearances for us, but your belated comeback on here is going well.Good news. I personally find it hard to find anything to like about the Dup. They seem a bit shouty and angry.
Political.Are you talking political or actual fella? I’m guessing you mean the first.
A repeated dishonesty I see posted is that there were 3 SoSs leading the negotiationsAbsolutely. I'm one of the few people it seems that doesn't know everything there is to know about this. Maybe I'm ignorant, maybe honest, maybe a little of both. I actually think Davis is one of the more genuine and capable brexiteers and it's a shame he went.
Sounds like a punishment deal to meAs Herr Selmayr likes to put it - "The UK losing Northern Ireland is the price of Brexit." Not one we should be prepared to pay.