Another new Brexit thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
cibaman said:
I wish I shared your confidence. But if Johnson were to galvanise the leave vote at a GE, Labour were to fight one with a particularly incoherent Brexit policy, I dont think its out of the question for Johnson to win a majority. And the incoming Tory parliamentary party would likely be even more pro no deal than the current one.
Click to expand...

I very much doubt it, tories are polling at record lows and the bxp will split the leave vote, hung parliament is nailed on.
 
mcfc1632 said:
As you say in your other posts - just needs good faith - which takes us back to Hollande's quote
Click to expand...

If you’d taken the time to read my reply, you’d know that to be false.

Checking number plates using technology only gets you so far. It does nothing for health and safety checks for example, which will need to be checked that they meet EU/UK regs on the border.

The above post and article he references is dead, other Tory MP’s have rubbished the idea.

Good faith doesn’t even come into it, saying “try harder” doesn’t get around border regulations.

The options are remain, Customs Union, WA or border in the sea which means NI is no longer really part of the UK, which will collapse the government and send us to a GE anyway.
 
aguero93:20 said:
We were fed nothing but it so we ate it.
Click to expand...
C4rp2q6.png

time to switch to muesli maybe
 
mcfc1632 said:
A repeated dishonesty I see posted us that there were 3 Sods leading the negotiations

As you say the negotiations were removed from them - led by Robbins under the utterly incompetent May's direction

Remainers - at least you would hope - actually know this, but prefer the convenient narrative
Click to expand...


If you haven't yet seen it..... watch Panorama .... we were described as 'headless chickens' .... not a clue what the Tory 'negotiating' (and I use the word lightly) were doing.
 
Gaudion M said:
I very much doubt it, tories are polling at record lows and the bxp will split the leave vote, hung parliament is nailed on.
Click to expand...

I expect a no deal Johnson will take back the vast majority of those tories who have switched to Farage. Those tories who stay with Farage are likely to be the Colonel Blimps who are mainly concentrated in seats where the tories have huge majorities. If Labour fight the election completely split on Brexit they could lose remain voters to the Lib dems and leave voters to the brexit party. Which might tip the balance in Labour/Tory marginals

I could see the share of the vote being something like:

Tories 35%
Labour 29%
Lib Dems 18%
Brexit/UKIP 8%
Greens 3%
SNP3%
Others 4%

Not sure how that would translate into seats won.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I take your point. I'm not sure anyone actually involved with negotiations did at any point threaten either no deal though. It just seemed to be folk trying to either pressure acceptance of mays deal, or Remainers using it as a bogeyman at home. I accept no deal is bad, but I don't think the deal is any better.
Click to expand...
Yes we did. I think it was Raab that threatened it with little or no impact. It was covered in the ‘Inside Brexit’ doc.
 
cibaman said:
I expect a no deal Johnson will take back the vast majority of those tories who have switched to Farage. Those tories who stay with Farage are likely to be the Colonel Blimps who are mainly concentrated in seats where the tories have huge majorities. If Labour fight the election completely split on Brexit they could lose remain voters to the Lib dems and leave voters to the brexit party. Which might tip the balance in Labour/Tory marginals

I could see the share of the vote being something like:

Tories 35%
Labour 29%
Lib Dems 18%
Brexit/UKIP 8%
Greens 3%
SNP3%
Others 4%

Not sure how that would translate into seats won.
Click to expand...

I dont see it that way - support for a hard brexit is ~35%. That is the base that the BXP and Boris will be going after but it is very much concentrated in the leave heartlands - many typically labour areas, if they dont work together they will not win many of these seats.

The more affluent tory heartlands are strong remain and the LibDems will take a lot of tory seats. Similarly with Labour where unless they back remain 100% they will lose the big innercity seats that are strong remain to lib dems.

The big assumption is what alliances form, I'm assuming that the greens, Libs, Change form an alliance but the BXP and tories wont. That way you have 4 stong runners that will take ~20% vote share each and that is why I think there will be a hung parliament.
 
mcfc1632 said:
Nope - that first part is just patently, utterly and demstrably wrong
Click to expand...

Yes. Well apart from your earlier post which stated

‘No deal presents major problems and will cause difficulties for years to come...’

I’m ok with you dismissing your own posts as wrong, after all everyone else does, but it can’t do much for your self esteem.
 
BobKowalski said:
Yes. Well apart from your earlier post which stated

‘No deal presents major problems and will cause difficulties for years to come...’

I’m ok with you dismissing your own posts as wrong, after all everyone else does, but it can’t do much for your self esteem.
Click to expand...

Has Project Fear become Project Confused?
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
Whilst I agree partially, it's becoming more and more apparent that the only thing that Brexit delivers is us leaving the EU. The rest of what was sold was a lie.

I wonder at what point that the majority will deem it too much of a lie for the balance to tip in the media to remain. I don't think it's too far away.
Click to expand...
Well - that was the real claim - and will do for me and many others

The rest requires quality leadership - which Brexit, of itself, cannot achieve and which the last 3 years has demonstrated that the UK sadly lacks

The shite level of leadership demonstrated by May is not the fault of Brexit
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
No one has even thought it necessary to discuss one of the major stories of the day. Probably just project fear. It's not even the worst case scenario.

No-deal Brexit could cause £30bn economic hit, watchdog says https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889
Click to expand...
I genuinely feel £30bn - even if true, which given the past accuracy is subject to doubt - would be a price worth paying if we got genuinely free of the EU
 
aguero93:20 said:
This is the thing though, it hasn't. It's been weaponised by the UK as their only bargaining tool. And by doing so you've well overplayed your hand. You want a war? You're going to get one. Bring it on.
Click to expand...
Seems not only clearly wrong, but also a somewhat extreme and unnecessary sentiment to post.
 
mcfc1632 said:
I genuinely feel £30bn - even if true, which given the past accuracy is subject to doubt - would be a price worth paying if we got genuinely free of the EU
Click to expand...
Except it’s a £30bn increase in the deficit for one year compared to leaving with a deal that’s predicted by the independent OBR, not a £30bn cost to the economy overall. And that figure increases in subsequent years putting the country in roughly £200bn more debt than it would be over the next 5 years.
Even that isn’t the actual cost to the economy which is estimated at between 2% and 8% of GDP, so that’s an overall economy worth between £50bn and £200bn less than it would have been.
And that’s the leverage the threat of No Deal gives us in our negotiations. Fucking brilliant.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
If you haven't yet seen it..... watch Panorama .... we were described as 'headless chickens' .... not a clue what the Tory 'negotiating' (and I use the word lightly) were doing.
Click to expand...
Don't need to watch any programme.

I have posted nothing but contempt for the UK's negotiating team and the approach they have taken over these 3 years
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top