i’ve always found the issue of squad rotation pretty interesting tbh. as in getting the game-time balance right to keep every player happy + sharp + in-form etc.
hypothetically, if we were going into 19/20 with the following midfield/forward personnel + approximate start distribution (not accounting for injuries), i feel we would have the balance about right:
CM: fernandinho, 26 starts; rodri, 12 starts
CAM: de bruyne, 26 starts; gundogan, 12 starts
CAM: bernardo, 16 starts; silva, 16 starts; foden, 6 starts
RW: sterling, 26 starts; bernardo, 12 starts
LW: sane, 26 starts; jesus, 12 starts
ST: aguero, 26 starts; jesus, 12 starts
i quite like mahrez as a person. clearly very talented player. doesn’t change the fact that he was an utterly disastrous signing. one which has ultimately risked doing the club far more harm than good.
i looked up our players’ league minutes for 18/19; mahrez chalked up c. 1300 mins, sane c. 1900 mins. now imagine if we hadn’t signed mahrez, and those 1300 mins were up for grabs. i would suggest 700 could have gone to sane (giving him roughly the same game time as sterling/bernardo, + bit more than he got last season), with rest going to gundogan/foden/jesus.
no chance mahrez deserved those 700 mins more than sane. mahrez is a classic big fish small pond type (bit like sanchez, zaha, fraser), at his best surrounded by workhorses (okazaki, drinkwater, albrighton, simpson etc) whose selfless legwork allows him to sprinkle the fairy dust. ie he’s a very poor fit for guardiola’s system. would be amazed if he has a world class season ahead of him.
and that’s exactly what sane is going to become (if he isn’t already). world class. collectively, sane, bernardo, de bruyne and sterling can give us a world class attacking midfield for the next 6-8 years. and if we do sell sane, i genuinely can’t think of a single player we could realistically replace him with who’d be an upgrade in terms of current ability/potential (sole exception being mbappe, who’s better at ST anyway).
if we do sell then, it would amount to the club knowingly downgrading on one of its best players, largely because it spent a season sacrificing his game time in order to accommodate a dud signing. he’d be on less money at bayern, playing alongside inferior teammates (lewandowski and kimmich aside), in an inferior league, under a vastly inferior manager. all logic points to the issue being one of guaranteed first team football; if guardiola’s plan is to go into 19/20 with sterling starting on the left, and bernardo/mahrez rotating on the right – huge mistake imho – then pursuing first team football elsewhere would (sadly) be right decision for sane to make.
fwiw, my guess is thankfully he will stay (mainly because bayern are bit rubbish), and fight his way back into guardiola’s first team plans. meaning there’s a strong possibility we see that dream long-term scenario materialise of sane – bernardo – de bruyne – sterling, four players all regularly challenging for pfa poty, and possibly the greatest attacking midfield english football has ever seen.
remember also mbappe’s contract runs out in 2022 and he’s made it clear he’s not renewing; bring him in to replace aguero next summer, and everyone else might as well just give up for the next decade.