Another new Brexit thread

[Ric]

Rory Stewart just tweeted in effect ‘bring it on’. David Gauke is another.

Wonder what Theresa May will do?

Call it a hunch, but I suspect she’ll meekly do nothing. Keeping the Conservative party together has always trumped the national good for her, and most Tory MPs.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Of course they will ignore their own departmental advice - they plan to ignore any laws that they don't like #deathcult

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-c...-dover-in-event-of-no-deal-departure-11800263

 

[mcfc1632]

Ah - there it is. The UK being undermined "from within".

Yoi know, we've had all the faux outrage from Leavers about pretending you're all being called thick racists, yet implying Remainers are traitors is fair comment.

Give over - some faux outrage right there

Two simple facts...…

1. Yes - if this forum is anything to go by - Remainers have been OTT in the gratuitous way they label and insult Leavers

2. What has been happening at Westminster over the last 3 years has absolutely undermined the UK's negotiating position with the EU

Two simple facts that cannot be squirmed away from

 

[mcfc1632]

In Edwards Heath view when he took us into the then common market part of the joining was always about closer political integration, you can find him saying it on you tube. It was always going to be more than a simple trading bloc. That politically it has not been such a success is another story, but it was always part of joining.

I am not saying that Edward Heaths conclusion was right or wrong, I am simply stating a fact.

With respect - so what?

I know Heath was of that mind

That does not mean that the UK population was - quite the opposite

 

[andyhinch]

Billy Braggs “Ideologies clashing” is worth a listen, sums things rather well.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Clarke is an obvious one as well.
Hammond is nearing 64, and I can imagine him deciding that 22 years is enough as an MP.

I reckon Clarke is pretty bomb-proof anyway.
He's hugely popular in his constituency, even among voters of different political persuasions; he's a great constituency MP and synonymous with the area, plus it's not like his views on the EU are a state secret.

That said, I suspect he might still toe the party line.

I think you might be right about Hammond, who is (not surprisingly) independently wealthy iirc, and bereft of any residual political ambition, I'll hazard.

Plus he'll have sat through numerous cabinet meetings watching the madness unfurl before his eyes and had to bite his tongue; that will have fuelled his recalcitrance and imbued a sense of "fuck it" in him, I'm sure.

I reckon there will be at least half a dozen who will simply say to themselves, for a variety of reasons, 'if I lose my seat, I lose my seat', especially given how unpopular Johnson is among a significant number of the PCP and particularly if feel they're toast anyway.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Call it a hunch, but I suspect she’ll meekly do nothing. Keeping the Conservative party together has always trumped the national good for her, and most Tory MPs.

May will do fuck all. She is a spineless ****.

 

[mcfc1632]

It would remove the suspicion from Leavers that Remainers are in fact trying to scupper Boris Johnson’s chances of securing an improved deal, and allow the PM to negotiate with the leverage he feels he needs. Unless, of course, Remainers are in fact trying to scupper Boris Johnson’s chances of getting an improved deal because they don’t want to leave.

That is exactly what they are seeking - some honesty would be good

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

That is exactly what they are seeking - some honesty would be good

Through the prism of the indivudual @hgblue named twice in his post, that response is fucking hilarious.

 

[Rascal]

With respect - so what?

I know Heath was of that mind

That does not mean that the UK population was - quite the opposite

At the time they were as they voted for it. I am not saying they are now, I am just saying times change and what was voted for back then is what they got.

 

[Vic]

Here's a theory. In a context of a very small number of landowners owning huge tracts of Britain, Brexiter Dyson is buying up tenanted farming land in East Anglia. He's expecting many tenant farmers to go to the wall after Brexit and though land values will plummet, future use will be unencumbered by sitting tenants.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Here's a theory. In a context of a very small number of landowners owning huge tracts of Britain, Brexiter Dyson is buying up tenanted farming land in East Anglia. He's expecting many tenant farmers to go to the wall after Brexit and though land values will plummet, future use will be unencumbered by sitting tenants.

Dyson is a sub-human scumbag.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I reckon Clarke is pretty bomb-proof anyway.
He's hugely popular in his constituency, even among voters of different political persuasions; he's a great constituency MP and synonymous with the area, plus it's not like his views on the EU are a state secret.

That said, I suspect he might still toe the party line.

I think you might be right about Hammond, who is (not surprisingly) independently wealthy iirc, and bereft of any residual political ambition, I'll hazard.

Plus he'll have sat through numerous cabinet meetings watching the madness unfurl before his eyes and had to bite his tongue; that will have fuelled his recalcitrance and imbued a sense of "fuck it" in him, I'm sure.

I reckon there will be at least half a dozen who will simply say to themselves, for a variety of reasons, 'if I lose my seat, I lose my seat', especially given how unpopular Johnson is among a significant number of the PCP and particularly if feel they're toast anyway.

Clarke's retiring at the next election too, isn't he?
I don't think the government losing in anything is a given, as some others (Hoey for example) will be voting on their side.

 

[Vic]

From "I can't support No Deal because Leave promised we'd still be in a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border"* in June to being against prorogation to saying he meant a different sort of prorogation to being unable to say if the government would obey the law, Gove is one sad little man.

* Why didn't Marr remind him of that? I would have...

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Here's a theory. In a context of a very small number of landowners owning huge tracts of Britain, Brexiter Dyson is buying up tenanted farming land in East Anglia. He's expecting many tenant farmers to go to the wall after Brexit and though land values will plummet, future use will be unencumbered by sitting tenants.

Or maybe he's just dumping money in the safest long term place there is - land. Still a sign that he expects rough times ahead, but maybe hes not actually planning to become the darth vader of farming? If he were there are probably larger, cheaper tracts of land elsewhere.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Clarke's retiring at the next election too, isn't he?
I don't think the government losing in anything is a given, as some others (Hoey for example) will be voting on their side.

You might be right about Clarke tbf and yes there will be some northern Labour MPs, and Hoey, to act as some form of counterweight.

 

[Rascal]

Interesting. We will see if they value their place on the gravy train more than their pro-eu convictions.

That is an interesting point that mate.

I have long traced back the situation we find ourselves into to the Daily Telegraphs expose of the Parliamentary expenses scandal. It really eroded trust in our politicians and the gravy train analogy became commonplace. I believe the Brexit vote was as a result of this as many voters looked to give the establishment a "kicking" for these perceived ills. I don't think the Telegraph were being underhand in releasing that expose, but you do have to question the motives behind it. It was the perfect time to erode that trust if you had certain viewpoints. I am not claiming it is a conspiracy or anything but we are where we are and the trust in our politicians is probably at an all time low. That worries me from a democracy point of view and reputations lost are hard to regain as you have just posted about the value of the gravy train. It is ever decreasing circles of trust and if we don't trust our politicians, we end up not trusting in democracy and I think you don't have to be the brightest to realise where that ends.

 

[mcfc1632]

The WA is a ‘lose’ for the EU as it is a step to removing the U.K. from the EU trading bloc and it is a ‘lose’ for the U.K. for the same reason. The WA deals with three issues one of which, the NI border, is a primary concern for one member state. The EU are not wild about the backstop and view it as a concession to the U.K. If the U.K. can’t live with the backstop then, as Johnson accepts, it is up to the U.K. to come up with an alternative that meets the approval of Brussels and more importantly Dublin.

Everything else is tucked away for us to enjoy a decade or two of future negotiations with the EU.

You pour scorn on May’s comms, messaging and overall strategy of confrontation and shouting at the EU to give us what we want whilst being ground down by the reality of what was available and your take away is not that we embarked on a doomed strategy of confrontation and shouting loudly but that we bent to reality and should have held out for more cake...in a document that only deals with three issues one of which is seen as existential to the island of Ireland and is now deemed non negotiable because Dublin no longer ‘trusts’ Britain to stick by its international commitments under the GFA.

And that lack of trust by Dublin and by the other leaders of the E27 is the final nail in the coffin. We either accept the WA, tarted up with a ribbon and a slap of paint if it helps, or we crash out.

There is nothing of substance left to negotiate. Johnson pledged to not talk to the EU until they dropped the backstop a stance that was met with approval on here, including yours, and yet three weeks later he is hotfooting around to Paris and Berlin with zero movement on the backstop. No one batted an eyelid at this U turn and yet you are still doubling down, or clinging too, this no deal strategy as if it was viable. You think the EU is going to move to accommodate a Govt that no longer has a majority to pass water let alone legislation and when everything it does drives a further wedge between the executive and Parliament?

No one, no matter who you are, is offering compromises to the side that advertises its weaknesses by shutting down Parliament and strengthening domestic opposition.

I expected more for you Bob - that is the most ill-thought trough/inaccurate post that I can remember seeing from you

The reason is clear though - you see everything through the prism of the EU is the supreme being and the UK must be stopped from leaving the EU - we must be secured as a ongoing contributor of funds and a taker of rules form the deity that the EU is in your eyes.

You like to talk about rules - so you should have instead started from the point of A50 - which is what is being enacted here:

"...…..the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. "

The rules do not say that

"...…..the Union shall negotiate in a manner that is opportunistic and seeks to bring forward an agreement that leads to the abandonment of the withdrawal notice. "​

The decision to leave the EU was taken by the UK populace

The process of leaving the EU is the enactment of one of the EU's own procedures - A50.

There is no, or at least, unless the EU is acting in bad faith (spoiler - it is), there should not be any validity to:

"The WA is a ‘lose’ for the EU as it is a step to removing the U.K. from the EU trading bloc...…"

That is the comment of someone that simply cannot tolerate the thought of the UK leaving the EU - utterly nonsense in the context of a deal being negotiated under the EU's A50 because that outcome is already decided.

In the context that it is a deal established as part of a process to implement A50 as a response to a sovereign state choosing to leave the EU - it is in fact a massive win for the EU. It keeps the UK taking rules they have no say in during the ongoing implementation period and will, thanks to an unfettered backstop, ensure that the period that the UK continues to be a rule taker (with no say) will last until the EU considers there is no need to retain the UK in vassal state status.

The WA is a massively bad deal for the UK for the same reasons

It was worth putting you right on this point - the rest of your post is, IMO, simply irrelevant fluff. This is understandable because you often display, particularly in this post, your myopia on this subject. You cannot it seems consider anything that is outside the prism of - the UK must stay in the EU because the EU is almighty.

As I said - I expected more from you. Others on here do not have the capability to consider things objectively and outside the scope of their own narrow bias and preferred outcomes - I thought that you had. Disappointing.

 

[urban genie]

From "I can't support No Deal because Leave promised we'd still be in a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border"* in June to being against prorogation to saying he meant a different sort of prorogation to being unable to say if the government would obey the law, Gove is one sad little man.

* Why didn't Marr remind him of that? I would have...

Because marr is terribly weak an interrogator especially when doing it to the party he votes for

 

[mcfc1632]

Don’t you know you’re responding to someone who’s read more than the introduction to negotiating pamphlet. He’s read the chapter written by the Holy Grail Black Knight.

At least BobK is a poster that I had felt was capable of some objective analysis and was worth making a detailed response to