Another new Brexit thread

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meltonblue said:
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/

Agree with a lot in that blog.
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A bit repetitive, but some things need repeating. Too much good stuff to quote chunks but here's one gem...

"No amount of repetition of ‘this will all be terribly easy’ ever makes it true. It is not unpatriotic or ‘declinist’ to point out that a process of ‘differential disentanglement’ – which is actually what Brexit is – will be hard, complex and lengthy. How, seriously, after more than three years can so much of our political elite still be in denial on this?"

I'd include the political elite on this thread!
 
Take back control - no unelected leaders





@abcpoppins
·
15h

Brexit Party has no membership You cannot join it You can only be a supporter It has no NEC Few policies it has are decided in secret It exists to take back control from “unaccountable EU” But has an unelected, self-appointed leader as its head


 
Vic said:
No, but Brexit disappears from the news. Most rifts close.

If we do Leave, it's years more of Brexit and the rifts deepen.
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No it won't and it will just move on to trade deals and who promised what and now it isn't happening - the impact on certain industries - friends and family losing jobs and blaming other friends and family for the way they voted - this is running and running mate
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
He is serious, don't bother
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Half the country will be utterly furious if we don't leave, a portion of the population who have been vocal on the matter for the last 40 years. How can anyone seriously think they are going to roll over and have their tummy tickled? They (quite understandably) will be more vocal than ever.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Osborne gilding the lily has been hugely damaging for the cause of the argument for remain, long term.

It has become a stick with which to beat logic.
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which is to ignore the actions the BoE took to mitigate the impact of the vote and recognising that Osborne's warnings were a worst case scenario............thats the point I am making all along - when its experts that say something against the idea of sunny uplands post -Brexit they are dismissed - if its a report or a trade body setting out the worst case scenario effects of No Deal its project fear ........ its either stupidity or will full avoidance but either way as I say its popcorn point and laugh for me when those folk lose jobs, homes whatever - harsh but its the only way anyone will learn the lesson without having their noses rubbed in their own mess.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Half the country will be utterly furious if we don't leave, a portion of the population who have been vocal on the matter for the last 40 years. How can anyone seriously think they are going to roll over and have their tummy tickled? They (quite understandably) will be more vocal than ever.
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There is an arrogance and conceit on both sides that think if they get their way everything will be fine. It's this that will probably ensure it isn't. :-(
 
Pingu the Penguin said:
Actually I see we can have a GE2019 as early as 10 October if Boris decides he wants one after Parly has its say over the next few days so crashing out may not be needed in any event. A single issue GE now seems to me to be the only option left. And whichever way it goes we all have to fall in line
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You can't have a single issue GE.

And as in the EU elections you could have more people voting for Remain parties than Leave but Leave parties end up with most MPs (or vice versa though that's less likely). And you can't deCorbynise the choice in a GE.

Though it would be difficult for Labour not to agree to a GE, I can see why, if Johnson chooses to tear up his own majority, they might want to let him swing on his own bravado. He wasn't exactly as upbeat about positivity and belief at the podium this evening. He looked more like he did when he realised Leave had won.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
There is an arrogance and conceit on both sides that think if they get their way everything will be fine. It's this that will probably ensure it isn't. :-(
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Indeed.

I'm not for divide and conquer.

For as much as I'll want to remain we are now beyond the point of no return.

Just make sure we get some sort of a deal.
 
bluethrunthru said:
which is to ignore the actions the BoE took to mitigate the impact of the vote and recognising that Osborne's warnings were a worst case scenario............thats the point I am making all along - when its experts that say something against the idea of sunny uplands post -Brexit they are dismissed - if its a report or a trade body setting out the worst case scenario effects of No Deal its project fear ........ its either stupidity or will full avoidance but either way as I say its popcorn point and laugh for me when those folk lose jobs, homes whatever - harsh but its the only way anyone will learn the lesson without having their noses rubbed in their own mess.
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What part of what I've posted don't you agree with?
 
Vic said:
You can't have a single issue GE.

And as in the EU elections you could have more people voting for Remain parties than Leave but Leave parties end up with most MPs (or vice versa though that's less likely). And you can't deCorbynise the choice in a GE.

Though it would be difficult for Labour not to agree to a GE, I can see why, if Johnson chooses to tear up his own majority, they might want to let him swing on his own bravado. He wasn't exactly as upbeat about positivity and belief at the podium this evening. He looked more like he did when he realised Leave had won.
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He's certainly taking a gamble with a GE. I'm guessing he thinks divisions within the other partys and the remain/no deal camp are bigger than the divisions within his own?
 
Pingu the Penguin said:
But the EU wouldn't do that, would they? Presumably they want us to stay and an offer of a fast tracked return post GE (might only take weeks - IF the party wining the election was pro-EU membership) would be the best way out of the current impasse for all concerned?

Major EU talking heads have reiterrated their support to the British people and I'm sure they'd do this. If they wouldn't guarantee return on same terms post early GE that would be a massive u turn for them and would undoubtedly guarantee just one result.
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How is it a u-turn to turn from doing what the EU constitution says?
 
Proy said:
Indeed.

I'm not for divide and conquer.

For as much as I'll want to remain we are now beyond the point of no return.

Just make sure we get some sort of a deal.
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No comfort to either yourself or leavers I'm sure, but I suspect we'll end up with a very slightly modified version of mays deal that allows both the EU and BJ to save face.
 
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