You forget, the people have heard this no mark crying for an election for years, now he's been offered one he's bottled it. Yes, he's come up with some long winded excuse but this will go right over people's heads and he will come across as a bit of a twat again. If he wants to wait until after October 31st, he will be blamed not Boris, because anyone with a brain can see that Boris has tried his utmost to deliver on his promises and Remainers in Parliament have scuppered leaving without a deal and removed his leverage to get an improved deal. The whole thing makes me piss my sides because sooner or later a reckoning is coming and Leavers have watched on in disbelief as their vote to Leave has been trashed. Well the use of a Parliamentary majority to get what you want works both ways and I hope you're still banging on about Parliamentary sovereignty if there's a Leave majority with a mandate for no deal after the next election.
The really funny thing is that if you guys get you're own way and we end up Remaining after voting to Leave, Britain will continue to send Eurosceptic MEPs to Brussels, our membership will be hugely controversial and toxic, and sooner or later there will be another crisis, whether political or economic and the Leavers who's vote to Leave has been ignored will still be around to say I told you so.
Sorry - you are IMO simply speaking from your EU POV
There has been a significant anti-EU sentiment in the UK for decades
It has been that strong that both the Conservative and a Labour parties won majorities for promising to hold a referendum - but then reneged once in power
Separate majorities North and South. Even in the current climate it's polling around 50% up North and I'd rather we didn't hang our hat on a 51% result up there.
Yes.
Leavers got the vote
Leavers won the vote
Remainers ran the process with utter incompetence to ensure that the vote could not be implemented.
Remain dominated and self-serving HoC has used all manner of duplicity in their efforts to ensure that the will of the people is undermined
Leavers quite rightly know which duplicitous bastards to blame.
I did not miss it - see post above which sets him rightYou conveniently missed the bit where the MPs who want to remain have done everything in their power to overturn the result. Strange that. Or are you disputing that is what has happened.
Which No-deal supporter is going to vote for Corbyn after the bill has passed? Johnson will still get all of those votes because he's a no-deal candidate and will promise them some sort of work around or the hardest possible brexit when he's got a majority.
Thanks mate - it seems something that could lead to some sensible and thoughtful debate which would be a refreshing changeI will, I haven’t had time.
He won’t but he’s likely to scoop up some of the remain vote now whilst the Brexit Party will take votes off Johnson if he fails to deliver Brexit.
Plus the Tories are in chaos currently.
Corbyn winning is him making marginal gains whilst the Tories implode.
Sorry -tut tut, quoting my name without the @. I couldn't give a toss what Brexit options are on a confirmatory referendum as long as Remain is. You know my strongly held views about the validity of the first referendum, I have banged on about it enough. Good luck with finding a single Brexit option that would carry the country. You have had three years to do that and singularly failed. BTW, love the 'democracy deniers' straight out of Boris's play book.
Not a convention mate. Only politeness. :-)Sorry -
a) I did no know that was a convention - certainly if you care to do a search on mcfc1632 you will find many posts using my name without an @ - most of then cheap and snide comments and
b) I think that I have included you in those comments in other posts - so I was hardly doing something 'behind your back'
Cheap shot between you and your BFF?They’ll buy whatever the Tories and the Telegraph will tell them.
A large number of remainer MPs have voted for Brexit several times.
A large number of leave MPs have voted against it. The arch opposers to Brexit are now running the Government.
Why are they immune from the responsibility of failing to deliver Brexit, but the remainers are guilty ?
Right now there is yet another of these cunts on TV, explaining how it's 'now' impossible to negotiate Brexit deal because 'no deal' is off the table. Yet Boris Johnson said he had 'solutions' to the problems.
Why not take these solutions to the EU & get a deal, right now ? There is an amendment in the bill, specifying that the whole purpose of it, is to use the extra time to get a deal to leave the EU.
Oh no, say the ERG, it's impossible now.
So there was ONE plan, to try & force the EU to back down.
No 'solutions'. Boris the **** was lying again about thst & those same people, who have done NOTHING so far, to negotiate a Brexit deal, are again breaking their promises & doing fuck all, to facilitate us leaving.
David Davies, in the days after the vote did NOTHING. He didn't even bother turning up half the time.
During that period, the EU were getting their shit together, what was the ERG doing to help bring about Brexit? FUCK ALL.
Since day one, this has been about creating chaos & grabbing power & it's still about that. Now they are most concerned about an election, not Brexit.
Why the fuck are people who voted leave, not holding THEM accountable ?
LolI did not miss it - see post above which sets him right
I'm scared, quite frankly, of a Tory government with a majority of seats in which two-thirds of voters voted for parties that are not in favour of No Deal. You'd be scared if Labour had a different leader. Simply, a GE to elect a government for five years, to decide one issue that could be decided by another referendum, is a risk.
I'm not quite sure how another referendum would be loaded in the Remain favour. I presume you mean in a referendum with only one Leave option, Remain would win. If May's WA was the Leave option, you'd vote Remain. If No Deal was the Leave option, between a quater and a third of previous Leave voters would vote Remain. And that's back to Leave being to blame for the current mess because some Leavers want out at any cost, and others voted Leave because they believed all the Leave campaigners who said we'd get a great deal.
You are starting to fall into the failings of others on here and mis-read/misquote or twist the words of others (hopefully the former)
I said:
"I am confident that the points I make are factual and the outcome I predict far more likely as heads will win over hearts"
Which clearly says that I am putting forward my views and opinions - though I am confident that I am factual - indeed as I have posted before I know some of the points I make - e.g. the dependence of Scotland on DWP systems are totally factual
You have not made a very good counter at all IMO
That is quite the best post I have seen from you even though the good points made are interspersed with swipes. No matter, logical and well documented. I guess your desire to get a baseline was to cement this argument but its not as easy as that. The latest poll I saw (this week) was 52/48 in favour of 'yes' or leaving the Union. That is before we have left the EU. My view is that a great deal depends on 'no deal'. If Scotland is forced through that and depending on the hits to the Scottish economy of no deal, then that is a material event that will cause those numbers to move. Particularly if the impact is felt for a protracted timescale.
When a Scottish Tory like me can seriously consider leaving the Union because of the actions taken by English politicians, I do believe there has been a shift of mindset from 'why?' to 'why not?' Scots have long memories around political injustice (real or perceived). I dare you to start a pub conversation about Thatcher in Glasgow. So under indyref 2, you will have the die hard nats + a significant group of the population who engage with the question with a far more open mind because of 'no deal brexit'. That is why I have consistently stated that 'no deal' makes it more likely that Scotland will leave the Union, but that it is nowhere near a 'done deal'.
So that covers why it is more likely the Scots will leave, but as you say, there is a strong constraining set of implications that were pretty well exercised in indyref 1 but because of experience with Brexit, will be even more real to the Scottish populace. Our wiring is even more integrated than the UK's is with EU. You should add to your list the not insignificant subjects of currency and the role of a central bank.
The other material aspect you don't mention is the competence of the SNP. I think they have learned their lesson from Indy 1 where massive questions were left unanswered. How well wee Nicky and co shape the proposition and plan and how credible it is is a material aspect which will move numbers one way or another. Having seen the botch made of the Brexit proposition, I think Indy ref2 will be far better thought through. The final material aspect is in the indyref 2 campaign. Who will campaign for 'No'? Boris and co? That would add 10 points to Yes as a starter. If its Jeremy will he have cooked a deal with Nicky? Whatever, I believe that the Yes campaign will be run in an extremely energetic competent manner. The 'No' campaign probably wont be.
So to add to your post:
1. The impact of no deal brexit will determine how far the numbers in favour of 'Yes' move to the positive - my contention is they will move further than the current 52%
2. The complexity and difficulty of the independence proposition will have a negative impact pulling the numbers back
3. That could be mitigated by how competent a job the SNP put to shaping the proposition and implementation plan
4. The campaign will be crucial and material to the outcome.
If we could only keep our discussions on Brexit at this level it would be so much more satisfying :-)
You are replying to my post which in turn was a reply to someone else's post which was either incorrect or hypocriticalOr that it was totally naive to not have a 2nd round outlining the sort of agreement we should leave with and the fact that it was so vague a question, has put us into a constitutional crisis because nobody can agree what leave should look like.
Labour’s message is now clear, they’ll negotiate a deal if they win and will put it before the public.
It cannot get much fairer than that.
Sarcasm as well as impoliteness eh? You also missed the suggestion of a two step referendum. No deal vs Mays deal and then winner vs Remain. Of course that would be loaded towards Remain as well.??? You must have missed the suggestion by the esteemed @Saddleworth2 that suggested that the options should be Remain or May's WA - I would vote Remain in that circumstance - yeah so totally loaded in Remain's favour
If you made the effort to read the content of posts then you would have the answer you seekWhen you say a rigged referendum, do you mean like last time when the winning side broke numerous electoral commission rules?
Or do you mean that there won't be a specific leave option that all Brexiters can support? (because there's no such thing)