Another new Brexit thread

[Vic]

Retaining NI in a NI backstop was initially proposed by the EU in 2017 and is their preferred option. Dublin would also be happy. Not happy will be the DUP and Unionists in NI. For any solution to work it will need Unionist and Nationalist consent. Dual consent is at the heart of the GFA.

No consent in NI to leaving at all.

 

[hgblue]

I appreciate the rest of the article has legitimacy and Lexit is a perfectly reasonable position to take if you wish to truly become a socialist state. I don’t want that but it’s a legitimate argument.

I just find the whole argument against the LibDem revoke position to be painful and short sighted. A general election and a majority is the biggest mandate you can get. If they win and revoke then the public has voted for that to happen and for them to do so, it’ll be a bigger share of the vote than any other possibility regarding Brexit.

Similarly if the Tories win a majority with a policy of leaving without a deal if necessary you’ll be supportive of that outcome? Because a Tory majority is far more likely than a Lib Den one so be careful what you wish for.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

We can get rid of Dipperland? Dippers kicked out of PL? Suddenly the polls swing 95/5 in favour of No Deal.

What makes them think we'd want them?
And stop with the 'Eire'.

 

[inbetween]

Similarly if the Tories win a majority with a policy of leaving without a deal if necessary you’ll be supportive of that outcome? Because a Tory majority is far more likely than a Lib Den one so be careful what you wish for.

Of course they won't, they didn't respect the first referendum result so why respect the second?

Similarly, why will leave voters respect any result to remain? Farage et al will continue to fight tooth and nail which will mean we never see a majority government for decades.

The day we have a second referendum is the day all confidence and respect for our political system will be destroyed forever.

 

[lancs blue]

The day we have a second referendum is the day all confidence and respect for our political system will be destroyed forever.

The way Johnson's behaving you won't have to wait for a second referendum for that to happen.

 

[Ban-jani]

Similarly if the Tories win a majority with a policy of leaving without a deal if necessary you’ll be supportive of that outcome? Because a Tory majority is far more likely than a Lib Den one so be careful what you wish for.

Well it’s now illegal for Johnson to leave with no deal without asking parliament to vote so that’s not a question I can answer.

In general, I may disagree with a manifesto or particular policy and I’ll always speak out against said policy but if a party wins a majority then they should absolutely enact their policies, I’d expect them to, wouldn’t you?

So long as they are legal.

 

[hgblue]

Well it’s now illegal for Johnson to leave with no deal without asking parliament to vote so that’s not a question I can answer.

In general, I may disagree with a manifesto or particular policy and I’ll always speak out against said policy but if a party wins a majority then they should absolutely enact their policies, I’d expect them to, wouldn’t you?

So long as they are legal.

It stands to reason that if the Tories win the next election they will reverse the law that makes leaving the EU without a deal illegal. So if they do that you will be supportive of leaving the EU without a deal?

 

[west didsblue]

Of course they won't, they didn't respect the first referendum result so why respect the second?

Similarly, why will leave voters respect any result to remain? Farage et al will continue to fight tooth and nail which will mean we never see a majority government for decades.

The day we have a second referendum is the day all confidence and respect for our political system will be destroyed forever.

Because a 2nd referendum now that the population has a much better grasp of the issues would be much worse than a government lying and cheating its way to an outcome that would be disastrous for the country, that is wanted by the right wing press and an assortment of ultra rich disaster capitalists (including the proprietors of said news outlets). And I'm talking about No Deal, not Brexit in general.

 

[blueparrot]

Similarly if the Tories win a majority with a policy of leaving without a deal if necessary you’ll be supportive of that outcome? Because a Tory majority is far more likely than a Lib Den one so be careful what you wish for.

Very much doubt any party will win a working majority so it becomes which part can get the backing of the most MP s. Doubt that would be the tories either as they are casting their net in a smaller pool.

 

[hgblue]

Very much doubt any party will win a working majority so it becomes which part can get the backing of the most MP s. Doubt that would be the tories either as they are casting their net in a smaller pool.

The last opinion poll I saw has the Tories 15% ahead, and that’s without a pact with the Brexit Party....

 

[Ban-jani]

It stands to reason that if the Tories win the next election they will reverse the law that makes leaving the EU without a deal illegal. So if they do that you will be supportive of leaving the EU without a deal?

I certainly won’t be supportive of the actual policy but yes I’ll have to accept it if they put it in their manifesto and enact it.

It’ll certainly be democratic if they do too.

 

[hgblue]

I certainly won’t be supportive of the actual policy but yes I’ll have to accept it if they put it in their manifesto and enact it.

It’ll certainly be democratic if they do too.

Agreed, the best argument those who are opposed to no deal have is that there is no specific mandate for it, and the cool thing about the Lib Dem policy of revoke and a GE win being a mandate for this, is that this argument will be used as a mandate for no deal if the Tories win a GE with this policy in their manifesto. As long as Remainers understand this then they can’t complain if this happens...

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

What makes them think we'd want them?
And stop with the 'Eire'.

Wasn't me, I know it's got quite a lot of sensitivity around it.

 

[blueparrot]

The last opinion poll I saw has the Tories 15% ahead, and that’s without a pact with the Brexit Party....

doesn't translate into seats, there will be no pact and the BP will cost the tories more than Labour. They will almost certainly be 10 - 13 seats down in Scotland before they even start.
Last thing I saw was Conservative party's own poling predicting they would lose seats and get about 295.

 

[mcfc1632]

I'm really trying hard not to say anything derogatory here.

I was replying to a post re the BACKSTOP & how the EU may be willing to drop it 'now' if negotiations succeed.

Note the name: BACKSTOP.

If no arrangement can be negotiated (note the word NEGOTIATED) which solves the Irish border problem, then, as you repeatedly keep saying, we would, under the current agreement, which can't get through the HOC, be in a BACKSTOP situation, which we are not willing to agree, so it isn't happening.

IF HOWEVER, THERE IS AN ACCEPTED AGREEMENT ON THE IRISH BORDER, THERE IS NO LONGER A BACKSTOP. If such an agreement happens today or tomorrow, the backstop will no longer exist.

That has always been the position: AGREEMENT= NO BACKSTOP. IT IS ONLY THERE, IF AN AGREEMENT CANNOT BE REACHED.

If Bozo puts the border in the Irish sea: NO BACKSTOP.

I feel honoured that you may the effort not to be derogatory

I understand all that you said but you really are missing the main points re the UNFETTERED backstop

Once locked in - we will not exit it for years - and during that time we will be totally shafted by the EU

We will not get an agreement to exit

Good grief - I will leave it there

 

[Ban-jani]

Agreed, the best argument those who are opposed to no deal have is that there is no specific mandate for it, and the cool thing about the Lib Dem policy of revoke and a GE win being a mandate for this, is that this argument will be used as a mandate for no deal if the Tories win a GE with this policy in their manifesto. As long as Remainers understand this then they can’t complain if this happens...

It depends entirely on what goes in the manifesto I think. If they outline no deal or their policy to default to no deal if an agreement isn’t reached by a certain date and they gain a majority, nobody can complain if that happens.

If it’s vague and doesn’t state anything about no deal, then it’s a farce if they then force it through.

 

[Ban-jani]

I feel honoured that you may the effort not to be derogatory

I understand all that you said but you really are missing the main points re the UNFETTERED backstop

Once locked in - we will not exit it for years - and during that time we will be totally shafted by the EU

We will not get an agreement to exit

Good grief - I will leave it there

I’ve been thinking about the backstop over the weekend. Would you consider taking the backstop if the power of releasing us from it was taken away from the EU and given to a third party? Possibly an independent panel in the UN or potentially signed over to the US to make the final call?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The last opinion poll I saw has the Tories 15% ahead, and that’s without a pact with the Brexit Party....

That pact would probably guarantee them a combined majority but it would rip them (the tories) in 2.

Only a minority of the current tory MPs genuinely support BoJo and his approach. The majority don't want brexit and hoped for a remain win, they backed May in the hope that some compromise could be done without resorting to a brexit nutter leader. Given recent events many of them will actively hate BoJo and if he does a deal with Farage that will boil over - I would expect further resignations or as a minimum massive internal strife. Who knows what the mix of Tory MPs will be post election. But you have to assume many incumbents will get through and they will not turn in to hardcore brexiteers or BoJo loyalists overnight. Many have fallen in line now as an election looms but the threat of expulsion will be a lot weaker once a new 5 year parliament term begins.

BoJo + Farage could win a 50 seat majority and then fail to get a no deal through.

 

[FlemishDuck]

True, but as some are saying in the TC thread their flight prices to Vegas, for example, were way cheaper than their competitors such as Virgin. I've just posted an example above of an incredibly cheap holiday I booked with them a few years back. Perhaps if they'd put their prices up a bit while remaining competitive, they might not have gotten in such a mess.

Youre argument was ok, atleast it didn't mind looking at it in more detail than to make a superficial impression.

Did you quack that while submerged?

QUACK QUACK

If you think you can get at me with duck related insinuations ill have to dissapoint you, i took this name withought remorse. :p

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I feel honoured that you may the effort not to be derogatory

I understand all that you said but you really are missing the main points re the UNFETTERED backstop

Once locked in - we will not exit it for years - and during that time we will be totally shafted by the EU

We will not get an agreement to exit

Good grief - I will leave it there

I hear what you're saying mcfc1632 and you have said it often enough. It is an opinion that I saw echoed in the CH4 program last night; Tories at War.
To me the bit in blue above however is the part that gives away the insincerity of the British government's position. They have negotiated all along saying there are answers
and believe these would be easily put in place, while at the same time saying that we need the backstop taken out (the one we asked for) as it will tie us up for God knows how long. Undermines our sovereignty.
As the program also showed, the faction that are trying to take over the Tory Party would actually prefer No Deal. They are not negotiating anything in good faith.
There is a very sinister game being played out in your government and everyone knows it. That's why I can never quite understand your point of view of insisting No Deal is on the table.
I understand the strategy, I just don't accept that point of view, as being a credible way of sorting the actual problem out.

It's all games and power struggles in Westminster and beyond. See who their paymasters are, who is really orchestrating proceedings.
It has little or nothing to do with the lives of people living in a border county in Ireland.