Another new Brexit thread

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mcfc1632 said:
Option A: you work with your geographical close partners and the major export market that you are oh sooooooo dependent on to establish a situation where all can thrive...…..

or

Option b): you choose an outcome that will utterly fuck the economy of your nation for generations to come......

Proper tough call

The moment those are the options will be the moment all the 'faux bollocks' will stop
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Are you talking about the Irish or Britian wanting to leave the EU?
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
I think it’s pretty clear now it doesn’t matter what the deal is or could have been. Labour and the other parties won’t vote for anything.

It will play into the conservatives hands as they can just say they want to stop Brexit

I will say it’s good to see the uk standing up to the eu and actually trying to negotiate unlike Theresa may. It’s up to the eu now whether they want this deal or no deal
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Well said!!!!
 
bluejon said:
Coming in peace when I say this, but this deal Johnson has given Brussels is a turd. There is no way in hell any country on the planet would agree to an open doorway into their market, which apparently this deal does, with no agreement that would close if customs alignment between the UK and the EU drifted apart. This isn't a serious negotiation, it's being done so people think he's standing up to the EU. He's not, he's being a dick.
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You are missing the 'politics' behind all this...

We have been fucked over for 3 years and need to break out of that shit

Th EU will compromise when faced with the need to do so - and if they don't (they will) then we are still better off
 
mcfc1632 said:
People are sooo entrenched in their positions they have long since lost the ability to think things through
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aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
Are you talking about the Irish or Britian wanting to leave the EU?
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The UK voted by a majority to Leave the EU

The point I am making is that when (if) the bollocks of the sycophants undermining the UK is got rid of then Ireland (with a bad taste and some proper justified frustration) will agree a way forward rather than deliberately choose generations of decline.

The EU - facing their main countries falling immediately into recession - will help their deliberations.
 
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Rascal said:
Quite possibly and I also suspect it has to do with the ongoing Trade disputes with China affecting American supply chains, they do say if America sneezes the world catches the cold. As that dispute escalates investors take refuge in bonds but around a quarter of bonds worldwide are showing negative yields. Probably a consequence of Quantitative easing after the 2008 crash that resulted from their being too many libraries in Wolverhampton as Alexi Sayle said :)

Because interest rates are already so low, there is no room for fiscal stimulus. As far as I understand it we could actually do with a rise in inflation, but central governments hate that because it hits savings and increases already growing inequality.

It could be bumpy, i hope not because if we leave the EU whilst we are in a recession it could make things worse obviously and not just for us but for the EU too. Everybody suffers.
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How do you solve the personal debt issue at the same time as stabilising failing national economies?

Most people are “mortgaged” up to the hilt in property, credit cards and car leasing.

Raising interest rates would bankrupt a fair portion of the population.
 
mcfc1632 said:
The UK voted by a majority to Leave the EU

The point I am making is that when (if) the bollocks of the sycophants undermining the UK is got rid off then Ireland (with a bad taste and some proper justified frustration) will agree a way forward rather than deliberately choose generations of decline.

The EU - facing their main countries falling immediately into recession - will help their deliberations.
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Sorry mate I'm genuinely not being ignorant I'm not sure what your point is, the way you're phrasing it makes your comment quite difficult to read.
Are you saying that Ireland disagreeing with UK is undermining us?
 
mcfc1632 said:
Be good to get back to our questions of yesterday - which of course have been informed by the news today, but in answer to this post...…..

You say "And this is where your original plan falls down at the 'goodwill' proviso, that you stipulated. You only have to look at how long it took to put the GFA together....."

Sorry - but (respectfully) you are missing the main point I am/was making - I was saying that things can be resolved with goodwill from the 3 parties - and I am sure that this is true.

Of course it is also true that goodwill is in the bin at the moment - but that can easily change.

There is no way that any of the parties will come to some 'accord' at the moment

Sensibly, the EU and Ireland will wait to see if the sycophants at Westminster can complete the undermining of the UK - if that (likely) happens they do not have to do anything and can stand proud and look consistent. So why would they do anything other than wait and hope for the sycophants to be successful?

If the sycophants are not successful and the EU then face a genuine threat of no-deal they will (most likely) agree a fettering of the backstop (that can be explained as not offering compromise - indeed we always had this on the table!!! etc.) and we will enter into a transition period in which things can be settled without the heat of constant public glare - and therefore accommodations can be made.

It is just negotiating and we need to make the EU get off their 'perch' and face some real choices. If we do - the outcome is pretty obvious IMO.​
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Not sure I did miss your point mcfc, there is plenty of goodwill between Britain and Ireland but the GFA was not founded on or written with goodwill.
It is a scrupulously devised legal document and International treaty that I cannot see our government risking on goodwill from what we all know is a political manoeuvre coming from Johnson.

I think you understand my viewpoint on this as well as I understand the strategy that you see playing out.
I see it. I get it. But it is a political game geared towards winning a GE.

I would really like to believe that Boris Johnson wants a deal and this is purely the strategy of having a credible no deal on the table.
I would like to believe this because the alternative is that he genuinely wants a no deal.

The trouble I see is that this strategy requires a credible deal alongside the no deal option.
If what he was offering was the start of a negotiation I would be more optimistic but it would still require an extension if he was genuinely interested in ironing out a legally binding forensically scrutinized agreement. He has purposely run down the clock. It is part of the game.
That isn’t going down well over here.

It has put the cat amongst the pigeons though in your parliament. Because this is all about blame.
Currently Boris is on a win win situation, as if this deal is rejected he blames EU, if it’s accepted but Labour vote it down, Labour are to blame.

It’s all a GE game and if he gets his majority because the opposition are to blame for an extension The Irish Government and a large portion of the NI people do not trust that he won’t just decide, right that’s it we’re out without a deal.

MCFC that is not goodwill.

Also, if he was serious about letting NI decide their future in 4 years time, why is he only talking to the DUP.
They don’t even represent the whole of the Unionist community.
Is it coincidence that they are the only ones who actually support Brexit and supported the Tories in Westminster.
Is it any coincidence that they are the only major party in The North that would willfully ignore or undermine the existing GFA.
A 4 year timeline that greatly depends on a veto from them is not very encouraging.

I think this will go to an extension unless The Tories actually have something else up their sleeve.
Then a GE.
I’ll leave this place to argue about who’ll win because I’ll be honest, I really don’t know enough about how the constituencies fall in the UK.

I would hope if nothing else, The DUP get a good kicking up North and also if Boris does win a majority, that he does genuinely want a credible deal, that would take quite a while lay down legally.
I fear that would not be the case however.
 
mcfc1632 said:
Do you ever (recently) think before posting?

Calm down with this need to (in your mind) make some cheap point - it just makes you look silly and confirms the opinion that you have regressed to 'pack quality' posting
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Cheap point?
Does Stormont constitution give either unionists or nationalists a veto even where there's a majority?
 
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mcfc1632 said:
That is your opinion - I respect your right to hold it (if only such commonsense was reciprocated)

But you are utterly wrong in how things will work out should we be able to make a genuine departure from the EU - IMO

Why are the EU so very very desperate to retain us in the EU do you think?
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Because Brexit does no-one any good.
 
bluejon said:
Anyone with a half decent understanding of economics knows that long term forecasting, especially on something as complicated and chaotic as brexit, is completely pointless as the unknowns stacking up over time make it impossible to calculate anything even remotely close to an accurate prediction.
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mcfc1632 said:
Wow - fucking spot on!!!!

And Neville liked your post

Do you think that he understood that the truth of what you say totally unravels the doom and gloom bollocks that Remainers have been insisting are facts for years?
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You've described as "spot on" a post that makes a nonsense of your own certainty that the UK (what's left of it) will be better off in the long term. So all this crap over something "impossible to calculate"?

It's not spot on anyway. Any fool can calculate what impact a falling pound has done / what tariffs will do and what lack of foreign investment is doing. Economics is not an exact science but it's not like alchemy.
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
Sorry mate I'm genuinely not being ignorant I'm not sure what your point is, the way you're phrasing it makes your comment quite difficult to read.
Are you saying that Ireland disagreeing with UK is undermining us?
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Apologies - I appreciate that sometimes when something is clear in my mind - it might become less so as I try and express it

1. With regards to undermining the UK - my comments are aimed at the EU sycophants at Westminster - certainly not Ireland

2. I have a great deal of sympathy/empathy with Ireland. They did not cause any of this 'mess' - as they would see it - but in the end they will agree to a sensible compromise.

No matter the understandably bitter taste it will leave - they will not opt for the generations long adverse impact that would result form their not doing.

But - at the moment - I can understand Ireland 'seeming to play hard ball' with the pronouncements that the full backstop must be retained. That stance would crumble in the face of a genuine risk of no-deal (IMO)

I hope that helps - let me know if anything else is unclear
 
Vic said:
Because Brexit does no-one any good.
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But that is only your opinion - why must you assume that your opinion is right?

Mine is that the generations to come that benefit from the health of the UK because their parents/grandparents took tough decisions will be forever in our debt (even if they do not thank us - you know what kids are like)
 
Vic said:
You've described as "spot on" a post that makes a nonsense of your own certainty that the UK (what's left of it) will be better off in the long term. So all this crap over something "impossible to calculate"?

It's not spot on anyway. Any fool can calculate what impact a falling pound has done / what tariffs will do and what lack of foreign investment is doing. Economics is not an exact science but it's not like alchemy.
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All I did was say 'spot on' to a post that said:

"Anyone with a half decent understanding of economics knows that long term forecasting, especially on something as complicated and chaotic as brexit, is completely pointless as the unknowns stacking up over time make it impossible to calculate anything even remotely close to an accurate prediction."

Which was a Remainer expressing that all the Remainer doom and gloom is 'suspect'
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
Not sure I did miss your point mcfc, there is plenty of goodwill between Britain and Ireland but the GFA was not founded on or written with goodwill.
It is a scrupulously devised legal document and International treaty that I cannot see our government risking on goodwill from what we all know is a political manoeuvre coming from Johnson.

I think you understand my viewpoint on this as well as I understand the strategy that you see playing out.
I see it. I get it. But it is a political game geared towards winning a GE.

I would really like to believe that Boris Johnson wants a deal and this is purely the strategy of having a credible no deal on the table.
I would like to believe this because the alternative is that he genuinely wants a no deal.

The trouble I see is that this strategy requires a credible deal alongside the no deal option.
If what he was offering was the start of a negotiation I would be more optimistic but it would still require an extension if he was genuinely interested in ironing out a legally binding forensically scrutinized agreement. He has purposely run down the clock. It is part of the game.
That isn’t going down well over here.

It has put the cat amongst the pigeons though in your parliament. Because this is all about blame.
Currently Boris is on a win win situation, as if this deal is rejected he blames EU, if it’s accepted but Labour vote it down, Labour are to blame.

It’s all a GE game and if he gets his majority because the opposition are to blame for an extension The Irish Government and a large portion of the NI people do not trust that he won’t just decide, right that’s it we’re out without a deal.

MCFC that is not goodwill.

Also, if he was serious about letting NI decide their future in 4 years time, why is he only talking to the DUP.
They don’t even represent the whole of the Unionist community.
Is it coincidence that they are the only ones who actually support Brexit and supported the Tories in Westminster.
Is it any coincidence that they are the only major party in The North that would willfully ignore or undermine the existing GFA.
A 4 year timeline that greatly depends on a veto from them is not very encouraging.

I think this will go to an extension unless The Tories actually have something else up their sleeve.
Then a GE.
I’ll leave this place to argue about who’ll win because I’ll be honest, I really don’t know enough about how the constituencies fall in the UK.

I would hope if nothing else, The DUP get a good kicking up North and also if Boris does win a majority, that he does genuinely want a credible deal, that would take quite a while lay down legally.
I fear that would not be the case however.
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Got some work to do, but will reply to this later
 
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