People won’t change their habits to any meaningful extent, as they are driven by convenience and/or expediency.
I don’t believe the 7:30 / 7:45 suggestion you advance would offer any meaningful solutions, and as I’ve already suggested, public safety could be imperilled if train operators are permitted to enter into a broadly unfettered free market, thus significantly undermining the efficacy of the model you espouse.
The structural, systemic reasons are manifest, for reasons which I believe I’ve already adequately set out.
I don’t claim to have any particular advanced state of knowledge, other than I’m a frequent train traveller with work combined with my common sense and broader experience of the commercial world, much like yourself. I get the train to London from Birmingham about three times a month, sometimes more. There are three separate providers on three separate routes and whilst the service isn’t appalling, I don’t feel I have adequate choice as a consumer, it’s too expensive, much of the rolling stock is unsatisfactory and the trains finish far too early back from London (as they do from Manchester). I don’t believe opening each of those lines to competition would improve the situation and possibly make it worse, and possibly less safe, and most certainly the present arrangement doesn’t adequately function as I would expect an effective competitive market to operate - with the features of poor service, inadequate supplies and prices being too high all conspicuously featuring. Out of the three, Virgin is the best, but it can be insanely expensive to the extent where it’s sometimes better for me to drive to Luton Airport Parkway and get the train in from there, which is absurd and cannot be in the national interest, which the type of train service we are subject to should always ultimately serve.