bluethrunthru
Well-Known Member
Mayday's lead was never +20 points across all polls, it was only one and only fleetingly. It was never "20 ++". And neither is Johnson's lead a consistent +16 either, only 1 poll has him that far ahead, most have him much less than that.
However, the big difference between 2017 and now is not the numbers, it's that NONE of the dynamics are the same. For example,
- In 2017, Theresa May proved to be dull as dishwater, void of any charisma, an utterly useless campainer and basically inept in every conceivable way. Boris it tangibly not that.
- May thought she'd walk it and was ludicrously complacent, resulting to a terrible manifesto including a mandate to use the equity in peoples' homes to pay for their care costs, robbing children of their inheritance. That went well! Incidentally, Labour are now proposing to tax that same equity, robbing children of much of their inheritance. That will be similarly "popular". Labour (Brown) and the Tories under Cameron have battled for years to effectively take most peoples' homes out of inheritance tax, and this is incredibly popular, so good luck anyone who wants to take that away.
- Everyone seriously underestimated Corbyn. He was also quite new in that he hadn't had that much public exposure before. Neither is true this time. The Tories will not underestimate his campaigning ability, and also the public know him, and don't like him, as the polls have shown. He's the most unpopular opposition leader since records began.
The take this morning in the news seems to be that a snap election more often than not doesn't favour the incumbent and the big threat to Johnson is the Lib Dems leeching votes away from the Tories.