Another new Brexit thread

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Manc in London said:
It's going to be an interesting election. Some experts suggesting a hung Parliament. Some say that will take us back to an impasse. Maybe some MPs will grow up and realise they need to form a consensus.
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So far the only thing I have read or heard today that I set any store by is from Sir John Curtice who predicted with whats in play in this GE there will be the first time in living memory that there will be 100+ MP's returned that are not Tory or Labour - and it all hangs on that if he is right - who can coalesce with whom.
 
Manc in London said:
It's going to be an interesting election. Some experts suggesting a hung Parliament. Some say that will take us back to an impasse. Maybe some MPs will grow up and realise they need to form a consensus.
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blueinsa said:
No doubt but the gamble is they are up against Corbyn.

It's a no brainer.
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And in that the Conservatives have a problem ..... because in the event of a hung parliament who do they form an alliance with?

SNP - Remain
Lib Dems - Remain
Greens - Remain
DUP - Thrown under a bus
TIG - wont be around.
Sinn Fein - don't take their seats however it was Sinn Fein's proposal about keeping Northern Ireland as a special designated area within the Eu and closely linked to Eire that was finally adopted by the Tories.So it may be in their interest to join up .. but i doubt they will.

The only one that would partner with them is the Brexit Party ... single issue no long term manifesto.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
For the sake of remaining in the EU , Labour and Lib Dems should team up.
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This - but they wont. Lib Dems typocally do well by fighting in more progressive tory areas. They tend to pitch themselves at that end of teh spectrum so slagging Labour is a longstanding vote winner for them. Don't expect anything other than hearing about how inept Corbyn is.

They will be the natural home for former Tory voters who dont like brexit. And Labour voters who can't vote for Corbyn. That is a massive chunk of the electorate to go at. But in a FPTP system it is very hard to judge how well they will do. They would be my first choice but I will be voting tactically for remain so I will wait and see.
 
bluethrunthru said:
Mayday went to the polls in 2017 with a 20 ++ point lead - Johnson has @16 point lead. That went well. Then the SNP are predicted to wipe out the Tories in Scotland after Davidson sacked them off. Then there is the BP effect. Johnson is taking a real gamble here.
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Mayday's lead was never +20 points across all polls, it was only one and only fleetingly. It was never "20 ++". And neither is Johnson's lead a consistent +16 either, only 1 poll has him that far ahead, most have him much less than that.

However, the big difference between 2017 and now is not the numbers, it's that NONE of the dynamics are the same. For example,

  • In 2017, Theresa May proved to be dull as dishwater, void of any charisma, an utterly useless campainer and basically inept in every conceivable way. Boris it tangibly not that.
  • May thought she'd walk it and was ludicrously complacent, resulting to a terrible manifesto including a mandate to use the equity in peoples' homes to pay for their care costs, robbing children of their inheritance. That went well! Incidentally, Labour are now proposing to tax that same equity, robbing children of much of their inheritance. That will be similarly "popular". Labour (Brown) and the Tories under Cameron have battled for years to effectively take most peoples' homes out of inheritance tax, and this is incredibly popular, so good luck anyone who wants to take that away.
  • Everyone seriously underestimated Corbyn. He was also quite new in that he hadn't had that much public exposure before. Neither is true this time. The Tories will not underestimate his campaigning ability, and also the public know him, and don't like him, as the polls have shown. He's the most unpopular opposition leader since records began.
 
Rascal said:
No ifs, no buts, dying in ditches etc

What time tomorrow do we leave?
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Its a pisser but i have also asked that question of Corbyn, a lifetime anti EU campaigner and voter and someone who has suddenly whipped his party to ensure we dont leave, not out of some Damascus moment re the EU and out of spite imo as a leave voter.

Corbyns own ditch is weeks away and my guess is he wont emerge from it.
 
blueinsa said:
Its a pisser but i have also asked that question of Corbyn, a lifetime anti EU campaigner and voter and someone who has suddenly whipped his party to ensure we dont leave, not out of some Damascus moment re the EU and out of spite imo as a leave voter.

Corbyns own ditch is weeks away and my guess is he wont emerge from it.
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He's a peevish puppet.
 
As in every ballot, the same percentage will vote as they always do, which makes the totally disenfranchised as "king-makers", if they say fuckit then a hung parliament is very likely. That's a "Known unknown". Random polls clung to by all sides hoping to boost their chances, might make a trivial difference....but no knockout blow. As the referendum proved beyond all shadow of doubt, the influence of the massed ranks of the media is the biggest factor at play in the world of the uncommitted. The racism card won the referendum, just as the pension bombshell lost May her majority.
Austerity, and it's continuation/acceleration will be airbrushed away, the travesty of universal credit( or poverty to be more accurate) will be portrayed as a great success for it's victims, it already is in the msm. A reprise of the brexit illusion of "unicorns/sunny up-lands and no foreigners " is jockeying with " Trump to the rescue" as the core market headliners for the brexitory party strategists . The less Labour say the better, let murdoch and friends carry on making up lies, some voters have wised-up , not nearly enough but every little helps in the fight for democracy( actual democracy not a kangaroo version like the referendum fiasco when only one side took the stand, and lied lied and lied again)
 
blueinsa said:
Yes.

Care to tell us where the NHS currently buys all its equipment and drugs from?
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Missing the point. The NHS have to buy their drugs and equipment from somewhere, the question is at what cost. Lots of speculation and “a source told us” in that programme but it does appear that the price of a trade deal with the yanks could be a massive increase in our drugs bill. But then you probably knew that and chose not to engage with the point.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
And in that the Conservatives have a problem ..... because in the event of a hung parliament who do they form an alliance with?

SNP - Remain
Lib Dems - Remain
Greens - Remain
DUP - Thrown under a bus
TIG - wont be around.
Sinn Fein - don't take their seats however it was Sinn Fein's proposal about keeping Northern Ireland as a special designated area within the Eu and closely linked to Eire that was finally adopted by the Tories.So it may be in their interest to join up .. but i doubt they will.

The only one that would partner with them is the Brexit Party ... single issue no long term manifesto.
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The BXP sounds ideal for them then.
 
journolud said:
the question is at what cost.
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So lets say for shits and giggles American companies can produce savings?

Still bad or a good thing?

What is so inherently wrong all of a sudden with American companies?

Are people guilty of letting their anti Donald bias pollute our their thoughts when it comes to America, our biggest ally and export market by country?
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
And in that the Conservatives have a problem ..... because in the event of a hung parliament who do they form an alliance with?

SNP - Remain
Lib Dems - Remain
Greens - Remain
DUP - Thrown under a bus
TIG - wont be around.
Sinn Fein - don't take their seats however it was Sinn Fein's proposal about keeping Northern Ireland as a special designated area within the Eu and closely linked to Eire that was finally adopted by the Tories.So it may be in their interest to join up .. but i doubt they will.

The only one that would partner with them is the Brexit Party ... single issue no long term manifesto.
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It would be the ultimate irony if the Conservatives went into a confidence and supply arrangement with Sinn Fein, but they are the only party that would be anywhere near supporting the Johnson Withdrawal Agreement unamended as it is a clear step towards a united Ireland.
Won't happen though.

What would be more likely would be the SNP helping them if they can get a referendum in return, but only if the EU had signalled to them they could join the EU fairly quickly in the event of independence. Even that is unlikely because if they are quite likely to get their indyref anyway as a quid pro quo for a lot less than a full confidence and supply agreement.

BXP will be nowhere. They were a flash in the pan and have already nearly disappeared as Johnson has stolen their clothes.
 
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