Another new Brexit thread

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aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
I just can't see it sorry. The only thing I could maybe see is conservatives winning but not being able to secure a majority, and there was some sort of rainbow coalition between lab, lib, SNP and maybe a few minority parties with the sole intention of achieving a second referendum.
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If the conservatives don't secure a majority, lets say they get the same seats they have now including the rebels, I think that leaves them 10 short of a majority. The question then is where do they go to form a government, the DUP aren't going to back Johnson after he stabbed them in the back ? According to some reports some cabinet ministers expect to lose seats in Scotland , London and the south west, could be 20 seats there the question then is can they gain 20 elsewhere especially if the BP party campaign against them which they will as the tories won't stand on a no deal platform.
 
blueparrot said:
If the conservatives don't secure a majority, lets say they get the same seats they have now including the rebels, I think that leaves them 10 short of a majority. The question then is where do they go to form a government, the DUP aren't going to back Johnson after he stabbed them in the back ? According to some reports some cabinet ministers expect to lose seats in Scotland , London and the south west, could be 20 seats there the question then is can they gain 20 elsewhere especially if the BP party campaign against them which they will as the tories won't stand on a no deal platform.
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I think they will gain quite a few seats up north (People have short memories). Like you say the question is how many seats will they lose
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
Tories are fucked ....... hard ..... they have sipped at the poisoned chalice of brexit ,,, they have punished the poor and the disabled .... the WASPI women ... they have stolen the pensions off the dead ... removed the futures of our children


For what ..... tax cuts for corperations and the rich
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At least they haven't stolen your ......
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
I think they will gain quite a few seats up north (People have short memories). Like you say the question is how many seats will they lose
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It's really about the maths. One poll has them +16 points ahead, other more like 8 to 10. If they maintain anything like that they will end up with 350 seats plus and a decent majority. Remember their starting point is about 50 seats ahead of Labour. And that was peak Corbyn.

Unless Johnson "does a May", Labour are fucked.
 
Chippy_boy said:
It's really about the maths. One poll has them +16 points ahead, other more like 8 to 10. If they maintain anything like that they will end up with 350 seats plus and a decent majority. Remember their starting point is about 50 seats ahead of Labour. And that was peak Corbyn.

Unless Johnson "does a May", Labour are fucked.
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50 seats? That'll be nullified by the snp.
 
Chippy_boy said:
It's really about the maths. One poll has them +16 points ahead, other more like 8 to 10. If they maintain anything like that they will end up with 350 seats plus and a decent majority. Remember their starting point is about 50 seats ahead of Labour. And that was peak Corbyn.

Unless Johnson "does a May", Labour are fucked.
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Always difficult to be too sure with polls, a lot can change during campaign time etc.
Labours most realistic hope of success is preventing the conservatives being able to achieve a majority government.
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
Always difficult to be too sure with polls, a lot can change during campaign time etc.
Labours most realistic hope of success is preventing the conservatives being able to achieve a majority government.
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Mayday went to the polls in 2017 with a 20 ++ point lead - Johnson has @16 point lead. That went well. Then the SNP are predicted to wipe out the Tories in Scotland after Davidson sacked them off. Then there is the BP effect. Johnson is taking a real gamble here.
 
bluethrunthru said:
Mayday went to the polls in 2017 with a 20 ++ point lead - Johnson has @16 point lead. That went well. Then the SNP are predicted to wipe out the Tories in Scotland after Davidson sacked them off. Then there is the BP effect. Johnson is taking a real gamble here.
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And there are a lot more Tory/LD marginals than Labour/LD.

And they've lost the Dup and pissed off Farage.

If the snp win 50 seats in Scotland that will effectively be 50 seats for Labour in return for a second ref.

I genuinely don't see any way that they get a majority and they don't have anyone to back them up this time. Boris, McVey and IDS will be big targets for Labour.
 
bluethrunthru said:
Mayday went to the polls in 2017 with a 20 ++ point lead - Johnson has @16 point lead. That went well. Then the SNP are predicted to wipe out the Tories in Scotland after Davidson sacked them off. Then there is the BP effect. Johnson is taking a real gamble here.
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No doubt but the gamble is they are up against Corbyn.

It's a no brainer.
 
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bluethrunthru said:
Mayday went to the polls in 2017 with a 20 ++ point lead - Johnson has @16 point lead. That went well. Then the SNP are predicted to wipe out the Tories in Scotland after Davidson sacked them off. Then there is the BP effect. Johnson is taking a real gamble here.
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It's going to be an interesting election. Some experts suggesting a hung Parliament. Some say that will take us back to an impasse. Maybe some MPs will grow up and realise they need to form a consensus.
 
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