Last season, Pep set up the side to not lose. I don’t think anything will have changed for this year. I expect Stones and Otamendi as CBs and Fernandinho sitting in front of them, with Gundogan alongside him with a temporary license to get forward if possible.
I’ve seen quite a few people putting a back 3/5 in, with Walker playing right side in a 3 (Cancelo and Mendy playing wing backs). I think the easier set up is Fernandinho sliding in and out of a 3/5 as needed, with Bernardo/Mahrez, Gundogan, KDB and Sterling collapsing into a 5-4-1 defensively, with Aguero as the outlet.
Clearly, the damage Liverpool impose on other teams is the inside movement of their front 3 as their FBs get down the line. What is somewhat unique is that even when the LB bombs on, the RB also bombs on as a late arriving RW at the far post, and vice versa. This can dramatically overload a team, as most of them employ an increasingly narrow defence as they backpedal towards their own goal, and simply don’t have enough defenders to cope...especially with the lazy wingers on defence most teams “enjoy.”
As Pep pointed out in the Amazon documentary last season, the channels between the CBs and FBs is where they liked to penetrate, but that is so last season. Today, they prefer to bring their frontline inside and overload the box, allowing their FBs to get down the line and whip in a ball for someone (anyone) to get on the end of it. With this set up, they have 3 in the box between the lines (18 yd box) sniffing out a touch, plus a late arriving back post FB looking to either knock a ball back into the box or have a crack at goal (a la Walker the other day), and another 3 midfielders surrounding the edge of the box.
In short, the Liverpool 4-3-3 becomes a 2-3-5 and simply overloads teams and literally stops them getting out. United did this for years in the last 15 minutes of games when they were either level or behind. City, on the other hand, like to play the same 4-3-3, but we transition into a 2-5-3 on the attack, because we need a little space to play the cuter, more exacting football that creates “the perfect opening.” Against some teams, this has proven to be our undoing. Whereas Liverpool attempt to use “shock and awe,” we usually try to use “surgical precision,” until we run out of patience and simply start pumping balls into the box for our 5’8” average strike force!
Liverpool are a team that doesn’t suit us. They harry too much. They bomb forward in possession. They press the box from dead balls. They are City...albeit with less finesse but more power. They attempt to use their strength and speed to blunt finesse like ours and simply overpower most teams. We have shown ourselves to be susceptible to that and need to be at our best to overcome it against Liverpool. When the opponent is good at it...even teams who are well down the League...we have struggled a bit, because their scrappy, less talented players are willing to put in a hard shift. We faced this against Norwich, and Wolves are ALWAYS set up this way, which is why they have managed to relatively successfully blunt us multiple times now.
Like almost everyone else, I look forward to this game with anxious anticipation. For me, which City shows up, and which Liverpool shows up, determines the outcome. If both teams are at their best, City win. Alas, it is eons since City played their best, or anywhere close, at Klanfield, although our more defensive set up last season was successful in blunting them, while giving us the opportunity to win the game at the last minute. That penalty miss eventually caused the season to unfold differently than it should have done, with an eventual 1 point gap instead of the potential 4 point gap that would have made the Brighton game a coronation celebration from start to finish.
This season the match is the proverbial six-pointer at a time in the season where both teams have games coming fast and furious. 9 points gives Liverpool a serious cushion, some of which they may need between now and the end of January. However, 3 points puts the cat amongst the pigeons, and would be a statement that could not be ignored by anyone. Liverpool have created a fortress at Klanfield, and are unbeaten anywhere so far this season. Having City turn that upside down on their home patch would be exactly what we need...and the PL needs... to put this season back on a knife edge.
Hopefully, PGMOL thinks so, too, because we all feel like it is inevitable the ref (Oliver!) will have significant say on the outcome...especially in and around the box! I expect the cards to be flying from the outset to help him keep a lid on it, but he may set himself up for a big decision or two later in the game. As I said, it is almost inevitable he will have an effect on the game, which is too bad.
This game is almost as important as the Etihad fixture last season...maybe more so???
You have to love this game.
COME ON, CITY!!!
