Another new Brexit thread

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Ardwick Green Blue said:
It will come down to a point where both sides have to decide if what is on offer fits with their vital interests.
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I agree with this, but I would say that the EU have been fairly open about what's on offer. They may well make concessions here and there, but have been pretty consistent about what retaining full access to the single market means. I'd agree May and Johnson were hindered in not having a leaver majority in the commons but for me the biggest problem was going into the whole thing with a load of adversarial bluster that just made us look silly. The 'perfidious albion' nonsense was absolutely not the right way to go with people who are supposedly our 'European friends'. Johnson has the majority now to marginalise the likes of the ERG and take a more cordial approach - get some trade-offs involving freedom of movement and the ECJ that he can sell at home and we might not end up coming out of it too badly. What these actually might entail I'd imagine are beyond mine and the average person's expertise, but I suspect Johnson doesn't really care as long as he can be seen to get it done. I think the bigger issue facing him is a year or two down the line when people realise that being in or out of the EU isn't what was making their lives so shitty.
 
mcfc1632 said:
All valid stuff - I have made some comments against each of your different points

Because I have just done a 'top of the head' response so it is probably a bit wordy - it is better kept within the scope of your post so that only those that want to read it need bother
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In the private sector, a full business case would be done prior to meaningful negotiations. It would normally be done on the basis of an ITT response from one or a number of service providers. My point was, in most cases there is a fall back of status quo if the business case is destroyed for whatever reason. That doesn’t apply with Brexit. There is no status quo safety net to turn to.

Turning to one of your key points. That Johnson has the means and political will to go for no deal if his realistic and ideal scenarios are rejected or simply if he runs out of time. Yes. I agree he has. And I agree that it is a bargaining lever as the EU will not wish it. How strong a leaver is open to discussion. Do I think that the EU would break one of their fundamental red lines, no I really don’t and that for me is critical as the most advantageous outcomes with the EU will come wrapped with consequences that are unacceptable and we will be back to the same impasse. That’s why I think a no deal conclusion is a very real and likely possibility at the end of 2020. Some would argue that is his ideal scenario anyway.

I talked about the competence of the U.K. negotiation team and I recognise the framework you describe which would work if implemented by really competent people. Not just a core team + support, but every single one of their sponsors which would cover the entire cabinet and would require full support from media (that would be the easy bit). Not a word out of place, not a single wrong term, every step choreographed to achieve the best outcome. Rebuilding the relationship with the EU would have to be part of that so no more macho dick waving from Gove or Robb. I just cant imagine it. To go from the utterly inept to the frankly world class is a step too far for me to think credible. Surely a more likely outcome is more of the same inept shouting by Johnson and co whilst working hard to mitigate the worst impacts of a no deal scenario at the end of 2020.
 
joe123 said:
I agree with this, but I would say that the EU have been fairly open about what's on offer. They may well make concessions here and there, but have been pretty consistent about what retaining full access to the single market means. I'd agree May and Johnson were hindered in not having a leaver majority in the commons but for me the biggest problem was going into the whole thing with a load of adversarial bluster that just made us look silly. The 'perfidious albion' nonsense was absolutely not the right way to go with people who are supposedly our 'European friends'. Johnson has the majority now to marginalise the likes of the ERG and take a more cordial approach - get some trade-offs involving freedom of movement and the ECJ that he can sell at home and we might not end up coming out of it too badly. What these actually might entail I'd imagine are beyond mine and the average person's expertise, but I suspect Johnson doesn't really care as long as he can be seen to get it done. I think the bigger issue facing him is a year or two down the line when people realise that being in or out of the EU isn't what was making their lives so shitty.
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I promise not to laugh too loud when the Eu tie any trade deal to a level playing field and the implementation of the Anti Tax avoidance directive.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
I promise not to laugh too loud when the Eu tie any trade deal to a level playing field and the implementation of the Anti Tax avoidance directive.
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The EU can demand anything they want as can the UK. Then at some point both sides decide if what’s on offer is acceptable to them or not. That’s generally how negotiations work.

Interestingly, Ireland was one of several EU member states which voted against the tax avoidance measure recently as it appears that without the current tax haven status for global tech giants its economy would collapse. It’s a far bigger deal to them than any repercussions from Brexit.

Edit: from the Irish Times. This isn’t about the recent veto by Ireland but it details its tax haven global ranking.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-is-the-world-s-biggest-corporate-tax-haven-say-academics-1.3528401?mode=amp

Further edit: this details how the Irish economy could collapse if it wasn’t a tax haven

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....e-out-tax-avoiders-havens-eu-reimburse-states
 
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Ifwecouldjust....... said:
I promise not to laugh too loud when the Eu tie any trade deal to a level playing field and the implementation of the Anti Tax avoidance directive.
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Its a bit tragic to be so eager for something bad to happen just so you can be right and 'laugh'. Each to their own though - not my place to tell you how to get your jollies.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
Christ am away for Xmas and new year when I left all was good ,the WA was passed employment was a record high, ftse was up the pound had strengthened business confidence had returned and growth forecasts had improved .

have all the remain experts predictions finally proved correct and it’s all gone to shit back home
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Living off a diet of spam and roadkill at the minute, mate.

Want some? You can have mine, i'm due in the Thunderdome in an hour. "Two men enter..." and all that.
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
Living off a diet of spam and roadkill at the minute, mate.

Want some? You can have mine, i'm due in the Thunderdome in an hour. "Two men enter..." and all that.
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I find you can get used to most hardships. I've stocked up on tins of Aldi baked beans and I've started sleeping on a hard floor to toughen myself up for when the transition period ends.
 
Ardwick Green Blue said:
I find you can get used to most hardships. I've stocked up on tins of Aldi baked beans and I've started sleeping on a hard floor to toughen myself up for when the transition period ends.
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I'm just training my stomach to accept chlorinated chicken and practicing my Pledge of Allegience for when we become the 51st State.
 
Probably worth stocking up on paracetamol before we are forced to buy them from US pharmaceutical companies for £50000 a packet.
 
bluethrunthru said:
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA - Taking back control eh?






James O'Brien
@mrjamesob
·
1h

Lazy exceptionalism meets cold reality. Get used to it.



French company wins licence to monitor British fishing boats
Brexiteers have long hailed the “sea of opportunity” that awaits British fishermen and women after the UK leaves the EU — but now it has emerged that their boats will be monitored by a French company.
thetimes.co.uk
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I honestly don't get what some of you have against foreigners and immigrants. If a French company provides the most cost efficient solution to the control of our waters then so be it. This idea that Brexit means all trade and cooperation will stop is just xenophobia.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I honestly don't get what some of you have against foreigners and immigrants. If a French company provides the most cost efficient solution to the control of our waters then so be it. This idea that Brexit means all trade and cooperation will stop is just xenophobia.
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I have nothing against them - its the idea that all those folk who want Brexit to happen so the British Govt has control over our waters when the Govt they all want to "get it done" is busily doing the opposite - and in not an entirely open and fair way if you read the article I poster afterwards. All those who are so far into it they cannot see what a huge mistake it will be are slowly but surely going to have every single one of the promises they thought was in there removed by the bunch of charlatans who's lies they believed. And when we try and go back to a group we should never be leaving the final lie will be exposed - that we have a better deal than we could possibly have hoped for - when the EU say "you are welcome back but no longer on the terms you were enjoying"
 
bluethrunthru said:
I have nothing against them - its the idea that all those folk who want Brexit to happen so the British Govt has control over our waters when the Govt they all want to "get it done" is busily doing the opposite - and in not an entirely open and fair way if you read the article I poster afterwards. All those who are so far into it they cannot see what a huge mistake it will be are slowly but surely going to have every single one of the promises they thought was in there removed by the bunch of charlatans who's lies they believed. And when we try and go back to a group we should never be leaving the final lie will be exposed - that we have a better deal than we could possibly have hoped for - when the EU say "you are welcome back but no longer on the terms you were enjoying"
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I'm sure you're a perfectly nice chap and everything, but you did start posting this stuff about foreigners (French) taking our jobs/fishing licencing or whatever. I just think we need to stop framing foreigners as 'the enemy ' with sensationalist stuff like this. I didn't have you down as a racist and I understand that Brexit arouses strange passions in otherwise decent folk
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I'm sure you're a perfectly nice chap and everything, but you did start posting this stuff about foreigners (French) taking our jobs/fishing licencing or whatever. I just think we need to stop framing foreigners as 'the enemy ' with sensationalist stuff like this. I didn't have you down as a racist and I understand that Brexit arouses strange passions in otherwise decent folk
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Its about the sell out by the Govt not racism !!!
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I honestly don't get what some of you have against foreigners and immigrants. If a French company provides the most cost efficient solution to the control of our waters then so be it. This idea that Brexit means all trade and cooperation will stop is just xenophobia.
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I'm not sure if you're deliberately missing the point about why it's funny that French firms will be monitoring "our" waters, and a French firm will be printing our black passports.

Seriously, as we're perpetuating every law that derives from EU directives, until we change individual laws to something different, I presume that EU procurement laws still apply - and if we do away with that law, and reduce competition for providing services in the UK, prices for those services will go up. After all, hasn't one of the prime arguments against immigration been that immigration depresses wages? The obvious corollary is that prices will go up.
 
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