COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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March 3:
Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]

People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."
 
Main man in England on public health England on breakfast tv this morning all channels. Chief medical officer very calm advice facts

much more likely than not we will have to deal with an epidemic in the uk

pretty sure the mortality rate is 1%

lot more serious for the elderly and the focus of the nhs will initially be treating these vulnerable people.

wash your hands for 20 seconds best way of preventing spread.

children don’t seem to be as affected by this virus.

if you think you have it self isolate in the same would if you had a cold of flu

masks not much use in controlling.

compared the death rate to flu in the uk for perspective , 8000 deaths ( I know some won’t like that ]

although the head of the WHO has just said it’s 3.4% on the headlines. No wonder people are confused to fuck.
 
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Mass hysteria by every news outlet. You'd think 10 million people had it instead of 50 odd. Worse than the global warming brigade
 
Manchester_lalala said:
Thick ignorant bastard mate. Probably the same scruffy cunts that never wash their hands after going to the toilet, I’ve noticed a shit load of people doing it this week.
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So you stand inside toilets looking for people who do not wash their hands?

Or just by chance you have seen this.....
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
Main man in England on public health England on breakfast tv this morning all channels. Chief medical officer very calm advice facts

much more likely than not we will have to deal with an epidemic in the uk

pretty sure the mortality rate is 1%

lot more serious for the elderly and the focus of the nhs will initially be treating these vulnerable people.

wash your hands for 20 seconds best way of preventing spread.

children don’t seem to be as affected by this virus.

if you think you have it self isolate in the same would if you had a cold of flu

masks not much use in controlling.

compared the death rate to flu in the uk for perspective , 8000 deaths ( I know some won’t like that ]

although the head of the WHO has just said it’s 3.4% on the headlines. No wonder people are confused to fuck.
Click to expand...
I don't think they have a clue about the real mortality rate. I assume the higher number is 3.4% of confirmed cases, i.e. those who have been tested positive. They don't really know how many other people have had it and had mild symptoms or not presented for testing hence the lower estimates of the actual rate.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
Main man in England on public health England on breakfast tv this morning all channels. Chief medical officer very calm advice facts

much more likely than not we will have to deal with an epidemic in the uk

pretty sure the mortality rate is 1%

lot more serious for the elderly and the focus of the nhs will initially be treating these vulnerable people.

wash your hands for 20 seconds best way of preventing spread.

children don’t seem to be as affected by this virus.

if you think you have it self isolate in the same would if you had a cold of flu

masks not much use in controlling.

compared the death rate to flu in the uk for perspective , 8000 deaths ( I know some won’t like that ]

although the head of the WHO has just said it’s 3.4% on the headlines. No wonder people are confused to fuck.
Click to expand...
He’s “pretty sure”?.. the WHO just yesterday have estimated this at 3.4%.
 
Cheer Up Peter Reid said:
I don't think they have a clue about the real mortality rate. I assume the higher number is 3.4% of confirmed cases, i.e. those who have been tested positive. They don't really know how many other people have had it and had mild symptoms or not presented for testing hence the lower estimates of the actual rate.
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yeah I think that was the point he was making with his assessment as not being concrete on the number as some people express mild symptoms so do not report and so are not in the stats.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
He’s “pretty sure”?.. the WHO just yesterday have estimated this at 3.4%.
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that’s confirmed world cases . I think in the uk it’s because they are taking into account those who only have mild conditions and don’t report .

I don’t think the who number is an estimation it’s deaths from confirmed cases so an actual, I think that’s why there is an anomaly.
 
Blue Hefner said:
1% of 80% of the population is still a lot of deaths.
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I thought I read yesterday something about people who are not susceptible to the virus ie the young, are also not likely to significantly spread the disease. If true that should significantly reduce the 80% rate?
 
cibaman said:
I thought I read yesterday something about people who are not susceptible to the virus ie the young, are also not likely to significantly spread the disease. If true that should significantly reduce the 80% rate?
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I think that is 80% of the country will catch it in one form or another I.e from mild symptoms to severe.

Re the young not being able to spread it, I’m not sure that is correct. I thought it could be spread without the spreader having any symptoms I.e even in the incubation period
 
Cheer Up Peter Reid said:
I don't think they have a clue about the real mortality rate. I assume the higher number is 3.4% of confirmed cases, i.e. those who have been tested positive. They don't really know how many other people have had it and had mild symptoms or not presented for testing hence the lower estimates of the actual rate.
Click to expand...

The people who don't declare symptoms can still spread it and if that amount was prominent then we would be seeing a large scale outbreak but that isn't happening.

The rate of new cases in China is stabilising and I'd expect the same to happen in Europe as people become aware and practice the instructions given to avoid it. People are also avoiding travel which is the only reason why it is here at all.

If you put 70 million people in a room then your chances of catching it are based upon whether you shake hands with around 50 of the wrong people, ie 0.00007%.

Wuhan is also ground zero and less than 5% of the population there contracted it and over 80% of those who did have mild symptoms or have fully recovered.

This is not dangerous or even worth thinking about for the vast majority of people. Guidelines should be followed of course but there is no reason to worry or panic.
 
Blue Hefner said:
I think that is 80% of the country will catch it in one form or another I.e from mild symptoms to severe.

Re the young not being able to spread it, I’m not sure that is correct. I thought it could be spread without the spreader having any symptoms I.e even in the incubation period
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Yes and pets can also spread it, even though they can’t catch it. Anything can spread it, even a door handle.
 
Blue Hefner said:
I think that is 80% of the country will catch it in one form or another I.e from mild symptoms to severe.

Re the young not being able to spread it, I’m not sure that is correct. I thought it could be spread without the spreader having any symptoms I.e even in the incubation period
Click to expand...

Yes I don’t think the guy in Brighton had symptoms. Perhaps I misheard or misread the comment
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
Yes and pets can also spread it, even though they can’t catch it. Any things can spread it, even a door handle.
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Apparently potential vaccines are currently being tested on animals. Clearly that might identify nasty side effects. But how do they establish if the vaccines are effective if animals can’t catch it?
 
Ban-jani said:
I seriously cannot understand how it can be contained if people are waking around with it, without knowing they have it.
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It's hard to see how it can be 100% contained but the spread can be significantly slowed down if we all follow simple advice on hand washing and take decisive action once symptoms do appear. That could buy us a lot of time and free up a lot of capacity in hospitals to deal with those who do end up sick.
 
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