100,000 at least would be my guess.What's your evidence for that statement. I gave you the mortality figures from China. What do YOU think they will be ? I think less than 26,000? Comon prey tell ?
To be honest, the human population globally needs to seriously re think it's approach to food and what we are consuming. I don't eat meat, but surely it's not a surprise to people that factory farming is a breading ground for disease?
https://ecohustler.com/nature/5-way...jDJ06E3h9a6rMo4qr5jsM836A_5V-YVKDrpUEZeCPaZ4U
If they're really able to identify the whole chain then it makes sense. Over here for example one of the problems was that we didn't know who the index patient was and, after the first one, cases started popping out quickly.On radio 4 there was a guy on saying that doing something to early as daft as it seems can have worse consequences than doing it at the right time. Apparently there are not huge numbers of cases where they cannot locate the source or reason of the transmission. Until there are we won't move into the quarantine/lockdown phase.
Looks like he arrived at his photo shoot after riding in a bike with no helmet.Lol that guy's hair though.
How many times does a deadly disease have to come out of that country before the weirdos in the rural areas stop eating the shit they do though?
I agree with the sentiment around what we’re doing as a species and rethinking our meat consumption, not dropping it keeping standards high but those lot will eat stuff no one else would dream of and I’m sorry but their government needs to come down on them like a ton of bricks.
Fine, shall we start a thread with your numbers in the headline and mine which is less than 25,000 and lets see whos closest and right in 6mths time.100,000 at least would be my guess.
Let me turn the question on its head: The spread of this is increasing like wildfire, uncontrolled across the whole country. What gives you the the confidence that it will just fizzle out? If you have some new theory which might give us all hope, I am all ears.
I fail to see how 10m are NOT going to catch this and even 1% mortality rate (WHO says 3.4%) means 100,000 people in the UK dead.
I don't disagree, the fact that China is still one of the only countries with no "animal rights laws" is a fucking disgrace.
I don't disagree, the fact that China is still one of the only countries with no "animal rights laws" is a fucking disgrace.
I am assuming that we'll take drastic action and therefore it won't be so bad. Without drastic action, perhaps 500,000 would die. It's simple maths, R0 of anywhere like 2, means 40m+ infected and look at the mortality rates.Fine, shall we start a thread with your numbers in the headline and mine which is less than 25,000 and lets see whos closest and right in 6mths time.
I do notice that despite you only just saying it was 10times more deadly and more infectious than normal flu you have gone for only 4 times more deaths than what the normal flu caused in 89/90. Surely you should be expecting at least 250,000 ?
Are you downplaying your own predictions already?
They better find a vaccine quick smart as it will be with us ‘for perpetuity’.I am assuming that we'll take drastic action and therefore it won't be so bad. Without drastic action, perhaps 500,000 would die. It's simple maths, R0 of anywhere like 2, means 40m+ infected and look at the mortality rates.
Your "confidence" is essentially based upon nothing whatsoever other than "I don't believe it", or reference to China, which took measures we will never be able to take. Even the governments modest projections are that 1/5th of the UK workforce may be off sick at its peak. That's 6m people (60,000 dead) for a start. And that's just at the peak. What about all those infected and who die before the peak and after the peak?
If we constrain it to 100,000 dead we will probably look back and say "we got away with it".
Is that what this boils down to,who is right on how many die,how bloody sad.Fine, shall we start a thread with your numbers in the headline and mine which is less than 25,000 and lets see whos closest and right in 6mths time.
I do notice that despite you only just saying it was 10times more deadly and more infectious than normal flu you have gone for only 4 times more deaths than what the normal flu caused in 89/90. Surely you should be expecting at least 250,000 ?
Are you downplaying your own predictions already?
The WHO needs a hard look at itself, 'never give up'..... Just give us information, not philosophical horse shit...
They’d probably eat those to...How many times does a deadly disease have to come out of that country before the weirdos in the rural areas stop eating the shit they do though?
I agree with the sentiment around what we’re doing as a species and rethinking our meat consumption, not dropping it keeping standards high but those lot will eat stuff no one else would dream of and I’m sorry but their government needs to come down on them like a ton of bricks.
But it is 10 times as deadly you said. Aren't the Chinese taking all drastic measures. I don't understand your logic . If it's 10 times as deadly then you should stick by that multiple. Not throw an even higher figure of 500,000 out and then immediately downplay your original of 100000 because when put on the spot you suddenly think it won't be as deadly in this country ? You don't seem to have that much confidence in your figures? Can I remind you we were always talking about deaths in this country.I am assuming that we'll take drastic action and therefore it won't be so bad. Without drastic action, perhaps 500,000 would die. It's simple maths, R0 of anywhere like 2, means 40m+ infected and look at the mortality rates.
Your "confidence" is essentially based upon nothing whatsoever other than "I don't believe it", or reference to China, which took measures we will never be able to take. Even the governments modest projections are that 1/5th of the UK workforce may be off sick at its peak. That's 6m people (60,000 dead) for a start. And that's just at the peak. What about all those infected and who die before the peak and after the peak?
If we constrain it to 100,000 dead we will probably look back and say "we got away with it".
The reason for the China figures is the lockdown of 100 million people. If they had just ignored it the death toll would be in the millions. It’s a pointless comparison.What's your evidence for that statement. I gave you the mortality figures from China. What do YOU think they will be ? I think less than 26,000? Comon prey tell ?