COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Chippy_boy said:
wtf are you talking about? I haven't downplayed anything.

And you don't need to remind me of anything. I am talking about UK figures.

It's at least 10 times as deadly and unchecked 40m or 50m people could get it. That would mean 400,000 to 500,000 dead, in the UK at least and more if the mortality rate stays higher than 1%, as it is at the moment.

I hope we may be able to limit the spread of infection to perhaps 10m and therefore only 100,000 dead, in the UK.

Clear?
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Its not really clear no.

If the chinese have kept it under 100,000 (so far obviously) out of their 1.5bn population, what makes you think 10m here will catch it ? Its bordering on the ridiculous suggesting that number, clearly we will do something more drastic long before that scenario.
 
Indaparkside said:
Apart from a few posters who are
Sane this thread has just gone into scaremongering by a few dickheads, nobody knows what’s going to happen they could find a vaccine in the next few months 5 deaths is hardly groundbreaking out of 350 confirmed cases never mind people who haven’t got tested who have got better at home on their own. I think some of you should get a life or better still fuck off your phones for a few months
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I am sorry but you clearly have no clue Have a read up, listen to some experts and wash your hands whilst you're at it.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Sure every single death is a tradegy that we should do all we can to avoid. But how many people do we actually think are going to die in the UK due to this virus ? Less than China ie about 3500 ? More what about 10,000 or 20,000 or even higher 25,000? That would be catastrophic wouldn't it?

Well 26,000 additional UK deaths alone were caused by the 89/90 winter flu bug. I bet the majority on here can't even remember that awful winter flu, I certainly can't. But thats the perspective people need, common sense yes but combined with perspective! Shame the media convieniently forget to report comparative figures like this. Instead choosing to focus on people panic buying pasta, toilet rolls and stoking further panic.
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Well according to the Dr whose interview has been re-posted six times from Channel 4, this virus will infect three times as many as the worst flu season and had a fatality rate at least 10x worse. So you can treble 26,000 and then times it by ten. If it reaches full community spread and nothing is done about it.
 
Chippy_boy said:
You're dreaming mate. Cloud cuckoo land.

This virus is

(a) Much more infectious than any kind of flu
(b) AT LEAST 10x more deadly
(c) We have ZERO resistance to it. No-one has any resistance (unlike flu).

If the 89/90 winter flu bug claimed 26,000 lives, all we predict is that this is going to claim way more than that.
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It’s getting silly now that this has to be repeated.

And not only your figures above, that’s just the UK, now imagine it writ large over a global population of 7bn.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I am sorry but you clearly have no clue Have a read up, listen to some experts and wash your hands whilst you're at it.
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Its pretty clear chippy that you think it will be 4x more deadly than the worst flu outbreak 30 yrs ago. Or is it 20times more deadly if we use your 500000 number???
 
Indaparkside said:
How the fuck do you know the whole world is working on it
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Everyone has a vaccine,that was sorted quite quickly but it has go through the normal testing and regulations,it will take over a year at least to do that,threre are no short cuts,nobody will sign off on any new drug if the correct safety trials are not adhered to,if say china has one ready to go in 6 mths then it won't be safe
 
karen7 said:
Everyone has a vaccine,that was sorted quite quickly but it has go through the normal testing and regulations,it will take over a year at least to do that,threre are no short cuts,nobody will sign off on any new drug if the correct safety trials are not adhered to,if say china has one ready to go in 6 mths then it won't be safe
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Your getting better with a lot of underlying health issues am I right and very glad of it to may I add. The majority who die will be in the normal age group for seasonal flu
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
No sorry that's not clear at all. I said I asked you how many people you thought would die in the UK after you said it was 10 times more deadly and more contagious than flu. By my maths that means you clearly thought that at least 10times more people would die than the flu virus 30 years ago, ie 250000. But then you strangely backtracked and said it would be 100000 deaths, after throwing a random 500000 into your response. So either you don't think it is as deadly in the uk as you first stated in or you can't do simple maths. My guess is it's the first one and you actually don't believe it will be 10times as deadly in the UK. Anyway have a good evening.
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I don't think you understand the word "deadly".

It means how many people die, compared to survive. For flu it's about 0.1%. For COVID-19 it is at least 1%. The WHO say 3.4% but we hope it may not be so bad.

So none of my maths are wrong, inconsistent, misleading or backtracked.

You asked me how many I thought would die from this (in the UK) and I said 100,000. I still say 100,000.

I hope "only" 10m will get it and "only" 100,000 will die.

I am not going to explain it for a third time.
 
cleavers said:
Its not really clear no.

If the chinese have kept it under 100,000 (so far obviously) out of their 1.5bn population, what makes you think 10m here will catch it ? Its bordering on the ridiculous suggesting that number, clearly we will do something more drastic long before that scenario.
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If we lock down all 65 million of our population like China did with 100m of theirs it will be less than the China number. Do you think we’re going to do that?
 
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