COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[St.Pauli support]

They said they predict the mortality rate will be 1% or lower. For younger healthy people it will be a lot lower than that and for older vulnerable people it will be a lot higher

However they also predict up to 80% of us will get it and if 1% of those die we’re looking at over 1/2 million people dying !!

Not if you keep the curve flat and the NHS is able to build up capacities to keep severe cases alive.

It seems to me the English NHS needs to win more time to get prepared,
to have more tests and ICUs available.

But also, didn't Boris say in that funny Q&A twitter video they want to go over herd immunity and 'take it on the chin'?
That's a risky thing, but maybe it reflects the current capacities of your system involved in that crisis, the very specific English situation that is different from country to country, also about socioculture or religion.

It's a very complex situation from medical, economy, school, sports mobility. It's nearly impossible to take the best decision
and the truth is, we will only know hindsight, who did overact and who waited too long.

Keep calm and act responsible towards yourself as well as to any other person.

 

[joe123]

Yeah, they are using behavioural science to justify inaction. No social distancing measures because we’ll get bored and lonely. The world must be laughing at us.

Couldn't believe that one. You'll get bored so it's not worth it yet. Fucking hell.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

The bloke in the press conference (not Boris) suggested that having thousands of people in a football stadium is actually less dangerous than having that same number of people all gathering in smaller groups elsewhere.

the problem is is the 50,000 people getting to the stadium , they pack into trains, trams and buses to get to the game and the pubs before the game His analysis is flawed.

people may get it if they are in an enclosed space like a pub he says , fair enough, but 50,000 people do not teleport to the etihad each week !!!

 

[simon23]

Rep of Ireland closed all its schools this afternoon....just attended meeting at my school....no closure yet but strong feeling it will happen soon and school staff are preparing for it by organising how to get work to kids at home and also mark/assess it all online...etc

 

[Indaparkside]

Really impressed by how much your government seems to trust all its citizens to follow their advice and act for the collective interest. Here we have to make it law and actually close things, otherwise people simply ignore it.


Erm, at least the CFR might go down. Yeah, I'll focus on that.


And how would you propose to punish Chinese people?

Meant the government is there any food inspectors really don’t know
But it seems they eat any and everything without any body inspecting this

 

[Uffa]

Yeah, they are using behavioural science to justify inaction. No social distancing measures because we’ll get bored and lonely. The world must be laughing at us.

Not laughing, just curious.

 

[SWP's back]

Boris will have the very best in this country on this type of thing advising him, so whats to say they wont be right? I know id trust the countries top scientists over anyone on here, despite some clearly thinking they know more.

Good, then listen to the first minute and 15 seconds.

• Comparisons to Flu are wrong as this is more dangerous due to lack of nationwide immunity.
• Worst public health crisis in a generation.
• Number of cases will rise sharply.
• More people are going to die

having said that, whilst he’s being advised by experts, so are an awful lot of other countries who ARE recommending social distancing and banning large public events.

Boris knows how dangerous and serious this is, but he’s not going as far as many countries, for whatever reasons.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Rep of Ireland closed all its schools this afternoon....just attended meeting at my school....no closure yet but strong feeling it will happen soon and school staff are preparing for it by organising how to get work to kids at home and also mark/assess it all online...etc

absolutely they will, but they are drip feeding the response. They are not doing everything at once. I reckon they will hope to get near Easter and then extend it.
The worry is closing schools means parents who may be on the front line fighting this like nurses, hospital porters etc have problems getting into work when we really need them

 

[abu13]

Not to sure about this update, on one hand I still don't feel we are doing enough but on the other the explinations offered seem reasoned.

I suppose the one take away for me is i have more trust in following the science rather than a politicians gut feel.

The other clear take away that i suspect people are issing is that we are looking at maybe 6 months before we get back to where we are today.

 

[The_Mo]

for 90 mins,t he rest of the time they are packed into public transport,touching a million surfaces on the way and breathing straight into other peoples faces,nowhere to go if someone sneezes at you,then there is the pub,they say self quantine and stand a metre away from people but let that continue for fans of 20 clubs every couple of days,is it just me ......?
As i got it from the wembley trip send him to me and i will laugh and kick him in the bollocks

Have you caught it? Hope you get well soon.

 

[Uffa]

Meant the government is there any food inspectors really don’t know
But it seems they eat any and everything without any body inspecting this

I certainly hope their government will get a grip on the wet markets after this, probably pressured by WHO and public reputation.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

callous.

 

[blueeeee]

I wonder why boris’ scientific advisors are following a different route to most other countries scientific advisors?

 

[simon23]

absolutely they will, but they are drip feeding the response. They are not doing everything at once. I reckon they will hope to get near Easter and then extend it.
The worry is closing schools means parents who may be on the front line fighting this like nurses, hospital porters etc have problems getting into work when we really need them

Spot on...the knock on affect of closing schools hor some people would/ will be huge esp if its any longee than that few weeks

 

[cibaman]

the problem is is the 50,000 people getting to the stadium , they pack into trains, trams and buses to get to the game and the pubs before the game His analysis is flawed.

people may get it if they are in an enclosed space like a pub he says , fair enough, but 50,000 people do not teleport to the etihad each week !!!

You do wonder if they’ve actually studied the way that fans get to matches, visit pubs, congregate in stadium bars etc before they arrived at their conclusions

 

[PragueBlue]

for 90 mins,t he rest of the time they are packed into public transport,touching a million surfaces on the way and breathing straight into other peoples faces,nowhere to go if someone sneezes at you,then there is the pub,they say self quantine and stand a metre away from people but let that continue for fans of 20 clubs every couple of days,is it just me ......?
As i got it from the wembley trip send him to me and i will laugh and kick him in the bollocks

Cancel the games it is unlikely those hundreds of thousands of people are just going to stay home. Some will be in pub, some in cinemas/supermarkets etc. I assume they have taken this into consideration.

I would much rather have them cancel it but that is more to piss the dippers off.

 

[domalino]

Good, then listen to the first minute and 15 seconds.

• Comparisons to Flu are wrong as this is more dangerous due to lack of nationwide immunity.
• Worst public health crisis in a generation.
• Number of cases will rise sharply.
• More people are going to die

having said that, whilst he’s being advised by experts, so are an awful lot of other countries who ARE recommending social distancing and banning large public events.

Boris knows how dangerous and serious this is, but he’s not going as far as many countries, for whatever reasons.

Having a different response to Italy or Spain does not necessarily mean a worse response.

People on here are saying the rest of the world will laugh at us for not being strict enough but it's not our government which ignored an outbreak in Lombardy for weeks until it was too late because none of the initial patients had been to China.

Ze German government have not banned football or other large gatherings or blocked all flights or gone into completely lock down either. Some federal states have but Merkel & co. Haven't.

 

[urban genie]

It really is, they’re not coming to this conclusion because they can’t be arsed.

Who said they can't be arsed?

They are obviously arsed, but seem less than willing to trust the public to do as they are told.

We will see, as my work has been pretty quiet this week as peole are not coming in and I know people with a high risk fucking off the match tomorrow as it ain't worth the risk.

People will put their lives above being bored a few weeks and a total lockdown isn't necessary, the irish and german aproach seems perfectly right.

On the people will gather if they cannot go to a game and watch it at home.
Well postpone the seasons then.




Chris Whitty was heavily involved with the Ebola outbreak and the UKs response, at the time he recommended that viruses that have a rapid and unusual way of spreading fastly are better contained by community isolation and closing off mass spread through large numbers.

Also he advised community support, training and involving the public in reducing the spread through isolating patients and trianing the public to deal with the health risks.

Suprised he is not using this method for this as this has been described as more serious than ebola infection wise.

 

[SWP's back]

I’m not sure it as based on epidemic science as they are making it sound (to delay the social distancing measures). From this press conference, the sole reason for not taking more decisive action yet is that they don’t trust the nation to fulfil the requirements of a lockdown for very long. That’s not at all to do with epidemiology, it’s more to do with behavioural science. They just think we’ll get bored and quit doing it. Simple as that. So they are waiting for the shit to hit the fan and will then take the measures. Risky. Let’s see how it goes.

Well put.

 

[BobKowalski]

for 90 mins,t he rest of the time they are packed into public transport,touching a million surfaces on the way and breathing straight into other peoples faces,nowhere to go if someone sneezes at you,they say self quantine and stand a metre away from people but let that continue for fans of 20 clubs every couple of days,is it just me ......

Travel to and from the game, meeting in pubs, mingling and mixing all the time. The Govt’s argument doesn’t stack up.

Perhaps the goal is risk management so right now not enough of us have the virus so we need more to have it until it reaches point x then we clamp down to delay the inevitable migration through the rest of the population whilst keeping it from overwhelming the system. It’s a vector calculation with an admission there will be casualties.

Not saying this is the case it’s just the way it comes across to me.