But not an EXTRA 500,000 deaths, i.e. 1million.
It’s highly highly unlikely you’d catch ‘it’ again. Most people would likely develop at least short-term immunity to the specific coronavirus that causes COVID-19. However, you would still be susceptible to a different coronavirus infection. Or, this particular virus could mutate, just like the influenza virus does each year. Often these mutations change the virus enough to make you susceptible, because your immune system thinks it is an infection that it has never seen before. So, if cancelling everything and shutting everything down for 4/5 months is the answer, we could well be doing it next year and the year after.Apologies if its been covered as this thread moves quite quickly but in regards to "Herd immunity" last week they were saying if you contract it and recover you are not immune and can catch it again, so what has changed that we now think we will be ok if 60% of the population get it? Also if we already have two strains you'd imagine it could mutate again and even if you become immune to one strain would you necessarily be immune to the others?
Until there’s a vaccine, no.But then there’s no chance to build herd immunity?
But you don’t seem to understand that when 9 experts are saying one thing, and the other 1 saying is saying another (for the uk) that it’s perfectly reasonable to question why that is and whether that’s correct.
Doing so does necessitate anyone believing they know better than the UK CMO.
Right that's me out of this if people aren't reading the thread properly. I'm trying to explain official numbers and you have just assumed something completely unrelated to the matter. I ain't got the patience any more.Deary me, is this what you are now clinging to? "Many of the 500,000 would have died anyway"?
Of course we don't know how many extra it is. What we do know is that 8,000 die per year from flu, so 500,000 dying is one year from a new flu-like virus would be quite a big deal.
Until there’s a vaccine, no.
So what?
We can then vaccinate people.
When a vaccine arrives then that surely builds any immunity thats needed.
That’s if there is one and even if there is it’s ages away from distribution.
I don't know. I guess thats something they will try and predict. How long they can hold this off until a vaccine is available. Herd immunity from what i can tell basically says a vaccine is irrelevent, we will just let people get it naturally and the consequences of that are mass casualties.Correct but when’s that going to come?
Could be worse....
My apologies. I mistook you from one of the deniers. My mistake.Right that's me out of this if people aren't reading the thread properly. I'm trying to explain official numbers and you have just assumed something completely unrelated to the matter. I ain't got the patience any more.
It's next year, not 10 years off. If the country has to make sacrifices this year so we can do everything possible to stop tens of hundreds of thousands of people dying needlessly whilst we wait for a vaccine, them IMO that's what we should have decided to do. It doesn't need to be an on/off switch either, with the likes of welding doors shut. but it would start with simple things like cancelling all sporting events which draw large crowds.
A woman from WHO just yesterday morning said they believe the mortality rate to be anywhere between 1% and 2%. About 5 hours later our CMO said 1% or less. Is there any reason to believe the UK figure over their figure?In fairness, the Chief Medical Officer said their worst case scenario model was that 80% of the population would get it.
He also said it appears to have just less than 1% mortality rate.
A journalist asked him the potential deaths if those figures come to pass.
He said he didn’t want to quote that figure as it would become a headline that would alarm people, but it was a simple calculation anyone could do.
If 80% of the British public got it and around 1% of them died, it would be roughly 500,000 deaths. A similar figure to WW2.
It's next year, not 10 years off. If the country has to make sacrifices this year so we can do everything possible to stop tens of hundreds of thousands of people dying needlessly whilst we wait for a vaccine, them IMO that's what we should have decided to do. It doesn't need to be an on/off switch either, with the likes of welding doors shut. but it would start with simple things like cancelling all sporting events which draw large crowds.
No more than many are doing on here.So he thought undermining the country's major health authority would be a brilliant idea.