COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Elbow beards]

And BTW, to anyone under 40, fit and healthy thinking "Well I will be OK", bear in mind this. The official figures have your chances of dying at 0.2% - two people in 1,000. However, this has been calculated as a percentage of ALL cases, including those for which there is no outcome yet. Not the proportion of those who have recovered. And some of the active cases will also die. So the 0.2% is woefully understated since very few cases yet have outcomes. Furthermore, if you do get seriously ill, your chances of survival are good, provided you have access to the proper intensive care and ventilator equipment. If the NHS doesn't have any (and on current course, it won't), then you're fucked. So again, the 0.2% is woefully low. My guess it will be 5x that at least. We are going to see lots of fit and healthy young people dying over this, IMO needlessly.

That's just pure scare mongering, with no evidence to back up your claims.

 

[PragueBlue]

Don't hold your breath

I suspect the weather will slow it down to some degreee. I was looking at Thailand which was on about the same level as the UK. They haven't really taken many measures and it is now miles behind the UK with less than 100 cases and one death.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Of course those figures don't anywhere near represent the amount of people who have it. There will be hundreds of thousands in Italy I suspect and tens of thousands here.

The number of cases will no doubt never be known and probably isn't relevant to government planning. I suspect they will have a target in mind related to how much the NHS is being stretched before bringing in new measures such as school closures.

I don't disagree that is what they are probably thinking but this is like trying to turn a supertanker. You don't wait until you are 20 feet from the dock before cutting the engines. As it stands, the NHS is going to be overwelmed in 1 to 2 weeks max. How long do they want to leave it???

 

[domalino]

That's just pure scare mongering, with no evidence to back up your claims.

You could reply that to every single post he makes in this thread.

 

[SebastianBlue]

In the uk that is exactly what is happening though,the medical officer keeps telling us that,i am not sure you can argue with that

I am not disputing those are the main impacted cohorts, Karen — it is of course true and I’ve never said otherwise. And it’s the health officials job to tell us of what is happening, so I have no problem with that, either.

I am trying to illustrate why the general populace continually saying “it’s just killing the elderly and sick” is problematic as it acts to diminish the relative importance of that impact and lessen the urgency to mitigate it.

It’s in the same realm as young people saying it’s nothing to worry about because it’ll just be a cold for them.

 

[Chippy_boy]

That's just pure scare mongering, with no evidence to back up your claims.

Sorry to disappoint you but it is not.

 

[BobKowalski]

Infection rate tracker

 

[PragueBlue]

I don't disagree that is what they are probably thinking but this is like trying to turn a supertanker. You don't wait until you are 20 feet from the dock before cutting the engines. As it stands, the NHS is going to be overwelmed in 1 to 2 weeks max. How long do they want to leave it???

I have no idea at what % of NHS capacity is the time to close schools/borders etc of course but I assume they do and I hope they have got it correct.

 

[Chippy_boy]

You could reply that to every single post he makes in this thread.

Oh like me saying there would be 1,000 people dead in Italy by 12/3 you mean? A week before it happened and there were only a fraction of those numbers? Oh, right then.

Some of you lot are in fucking cloud cuckoo land thinking this is nothing to be too concerned about. I said 2 weeks ago this is the biggest crisis since WW2 and was told to "wipe my fanny". Well I hope to God I was wrong, but from where it's heading right now, I don't think I was.

 

[lazerblue]

I suspect the weather will slow it down to some degreee. I was looking at Thailand which was on about the same level as the UK. They haven't really taken many measures and it is now miles behind the UK with less than 100 cases and one death.

I was in Spain last week 26°

 

[PragueBlue]

Infection rate tracker

It does look like weather slows it down. Unfortunately we're a bit buggered on that front as well.

 

[Claytop]

And BTW, to anyone under 40, fit and healthy thinking "Well I will be OK", bear in mind this. The official figures have your chances of dying at 0.2% - two people in 1,000. However, this has been calculated as a percentage of ALL cases, including those for which there is no outcome yet. Not the proportion of those who have recovered. And some of the active cases will also die. So the 0.2% is woefully understated since very few cases yet have outcomes. Furthermore, if you do get seriously ill, your chances of survival are good, provided you have access to the proper intensive care and ventilator equipment. If the NHS doesn't have any (and on current course, it won't), then you're fucked. So again, the 0.2% is woefully low. My guess it will be 5x that at least. We are going to see lots of fit and healthy young people dying over this, IMO needlessly.

There’s probably tens of thousands of people if not more who have/had it and it’s not going to be accounted for in % like that.

Honestly the numbers mean nothing now, we know it’s going to be widespread. The only number important now unfortunately is the total deaths one.

We won’t see lots of fit and healthy people dying from this.

I don’t think there’s been 1 death of anyone under 40 in Italy for example.

 

[PragueBlue]

I was in Spain last week 26°

Malaysia, Singapore etc are all increasing at much slower rates. Obviously needs more than 26 unfortunately for us.

 

[kaz7]

Ministers had previously resisted calls to ban large-scale gatherings even though some major sporting events including the London Marathon and all Premier League matches have already been postponed

A Whitehall source said: "Ministers are working with the chief scientific adviser and chief medical officer on our plan to stop various types of public event, including mass gatherings, beginning next week

"We will publish this legislation next week

The UK's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance had previously said while it is "eye-catching" to order the cancellation of mass gatherings and sporting events, the chances of contracting the disease by attending such occasions are slim.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson had faced criticism from some experts as well as former health secretary Jeremy Hunt who questioned the decision not to cancel large gatherings

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ten-more-die-after-positive-diagnosis-11957525

They really ballsed up this part of the plan,now it has been taken out if their hands by the sporting bodies themselves they are wasting time bringing in legistation to be able to ban what is not taking place anymore
Remember if they had their way we would all be going to every sporting event still

 

[Elbow beards]

Sorry to disappoint you but it is not.

On what basis do you calculate its 5x worse? Or did you just make that up? You say the death rate is a percentage of all ongoing cases, but you fail to mention all the unknown cases that had it and survived, which will naturally reduce the percentage.

 

[cptaidan88]

There’s probably tens of thousands of people if not more who have/had it and it’s not going to be accounted for in % like that.

Honestly the numbers mean nothing now, we know it’s going to be widespread. The only number important now unfortunately is the total deaths one.

We won’t see lots of fit and healthy people dying from this.

I don’t think there’s been 1 death of anyone under 40 in Italy for example.

2 39 year olds died in Italy yesterday. One had underlying respiratory issues, one had diabetes.

 

[BobKowalski]

the short term business case for the government's strategy is unanswerable at least then ;)

Assuming there was an economic angle, and let’s face it there is always an economic angle, then yes. But as a nation we didn’t follow the Govts strategy so I reckon the economy is heading for the toilet quicker than the Govt bargained for.

 

[PragueBlue]

Ministers had previously resisted calls to ban large-scale gatherings even though some major sporting events including the London Marathon and all Premier League matches have already been postponed

A Whitehall source said: "Ministers are working with the chief scientific adviser and chief medical officer on our plan to stop various types of public event, including mass gatherings, beginning next week

"We will publish this legislation next week

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-ten-more-die-after-positive-diagnosis-11957525

They really ballsed up this part of the plan,now it has been taken out if their hands by the sporting bodies themselves they are wasting time bringing in legistation to be able to ban what is not taking place anymore
Remember if they had their way we would all be going to every sporting event still

Plenty of events are still taking place though. Concerts, rugby, non-league football etc

 

[blue44]

I suspect the weather will slow it down to some degreee. I was looking at Thailand which was on about the same level as the UK. They haven't really taken many measures and it is now miles behind the UK with less than 100 cases and one death.

hahahahahahahah
good one fella
my wife is thai and works here in our NHS,she watches all thai you tubes and tv station religiously ,she dosen't trust the thai government same as i dont trust ours
quarantines incoming any day for most europeans there including UK nationals
the thai's would say or do anything to protect themselves,from a 1 on 1 fight in a bar to national security

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Hundreds of members of the scientific community have sent two open letters to the British government, voicing their concerns about the response to the coronavirus outbreak.

One comes from 198 academics in the field of maths and science, calling for urgent measures of social distancing across the UK.

It says: “Going for ‘herd immunity’ at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary.”

Another letter has been signed by 164 behavioural scientists. It raises concerns about the idea of “behavioural fatigue” – the idea that if the public are instructed to take preventative measures too early, they’ll eventually revert back to prior behaviour.

The letter suggests that this has been a cornerstone of British government policy on coronavirus and sheds doubt on the evidence behind this.

“While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about ‘behavioural fatigue’ or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances,” it says.

“If ‘behavioural fatigue’ truly represents a key factor in the government’s decision to delay high-visibility interventions, we urge the government to share an adequate evidence base in support of that decision. If one is lacking, we urge the government to reconsider these decisions,” it ends.