COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Spike in Covid-19 cases in Malaysia in the last 2 days (250+). PM announces restriction on movement and closure of offices and business till end of March.
 
vmsuhail said:
Spike in Covid-19 cases in Malaysia in the last 2 days (250+). PM announces restriction on movement and closure of offices and business till end of March.
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yeah. they were doing pretty good in last two weeks but I noticed yesterday they had a big spike.
 
UK has one of the worst death percentage. Only China, italy and iran have more. Spain is about leveled. And deaths trend is not great at all, if it continues like this, it might leave only italy in front.
 
St.Pauli support said:
Precisely when you are aware that you have an underfunded NHS, especially weak in intensive care,
it's even more logical to act quick and strict to flatten the curve. What's the point?
The strategy discussion shouldn't even exist.

The strategical idea should be to not overwhelm the NHS in the near future
and to win time to:

- ramp up capacities for equipment of all sorts
- aquire more prepared medical staff
- change daily routines of the entire nation to permannetly practice hygiene and necessary social distance (not isolation)

in order to be better prepared for the next wave that will inevitably arrive come December.
In the meantime we will go on developing a vaccine.

We have to go on/off with suppression as we need some relief inbetween, summer should at least help a bit.

Returning to lockdown later could work well, as humans adapt to situations, the learning curve will go up,
creative solutions arise and we will have seen ugly results of the first wave.

There is another aspect:

Those 250,000 or whatever deaths is the assessment for the whole pandemic (that means over let's say 3 years)
is derived from cases and mortality rate.
I have the impression some on here think those figures could be reached til summer.

As I said in an earlier post: we have to change anyway, as we have many more other fundamental problems on this planet
covering the question "how shall we live". We will find solutions - as we have to.
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Just for clarity, here is likely the most relevant passage to your post from the 16 March Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Modelling Report.

“Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.”

It’s important to note that the report generally uses a 2 year timescale for all projections and that the 250,000 deaths referenced is based on the “most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly)” in which “all patients were able to be treated”, so it is actually a very optimistic prediction for a mitigation strategy, rather than the suppression strategy we are shifting toward.

I also thought this bit of hedging in the report was relevant to your post. Speaking as a professional in the field, this is a data scientist’s way of saying “it’s our best guess but no one has ever ****ing done this before so don’t blame us if this goes tits up.”

“Our analysis informs the evaluation of both the nature of the measures required to suppress COVID- 19 and the likely duration that these measures will need to be in place. Results in this paper have informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in the last weeks. However, we emphasise that is not at all certain that suppression will succeed long term; no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.”

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
 
domalino said:
@SWP's back

We have that data for hospitalisations by age now.
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Going off last year's population figures I posted earlier, over 70's would account for 43.4% of hospitalisations without isolation.

Meanwhile Children represent 0.05% of hospitalisations despite being almost 1/4 of the population.
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Looking at that and the modelling that was released yesterday and their own comments regarding ICU beds. I can’t see any scenario that doesn’t involve tens of thousands dying in the next year for want of ICU beds not being available.

I’ve already had my mother quarantined for the past 5 weeks and I’ve told her to expect that to continue well into the summer. Her Alexa arrived yesterday though so on top of the usual FaceTime, she can now “drop in” on me and my sister at any time and she’s still going for a little walk every morning. The hardest thing is going to be combatting loneliness for a large part of the population.

It’s all very very strange isn’t it.
 
Wonder how many people will be off work today, thousands were off yesterday, it'll probably triple that today given the advice yesterday.

There must be so many households with 1 person under the weather meaning the whole family has to stay in.

This is why testing kits are so important, people who aren't well need access to a test kit.
 
St.Pauli support said:
Those 250,000 or whatever deaths is the assessment for the whole pandemic (that means over let's say 3 years)
is derived from cases and mortality rate.
I have the impression some on here think those figures could be reached til summer.
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They were based on a two year period AND having 8x the ICU capacity we currently have.

As such, it’s very much a low balled number.
 
Marvin said:
Stupid question alert:

Why can't we as a society decide to bypass the Phase II, III and IV parts of the live trial and just trial the vaccine in life and death cases with agreement of the families. Is that unethical?
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Apparently there have been cases eg dengue fever where they have produced a vaccine which seemed would be effective in that they caused the body to produce antibodies. But when they were fully tested it was found that the vaccine made the disease worse.
 
SWP's back said:
Looking at that and the modelling that was released yesterday and their own comments regarding ICU beds. I can’t see any scenario that doesn’t involve tens of thousands dying in the next year for want of ICU beds not being available.

I’ve already had my mother quarantined for the past 5 weeks and I’ve told her to expect that to continue well into the summer. Her Alexa arrived yesterday though so on top of the usual FaceTime, she can now “drop in” on me and my sister at any time and she’s still going for a little walk every morning. The hardest thing is going to be combatting loneliness for a large part of the population.

It’s all very very strange isn’t it.
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My gp (village 20km from Valencia) is now closed to the general public. It is being used entirely as an emergency base for people in this area for Covid-19. How many lives are going to be lost indirectly because of this virus as well as directly?

As we've been saying the UK has slept walked into a disaster.
 
Marvin said:
Stupid question alert:

Why can't we as a society decide to bypass the Phase II, III and IV parts of the live trial and just trial the vaccine in life and death cases with agreement of the families. Is that unethical?
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remember any vaccine is no good if you are already ill.
It has to be given to completely healthy people.

want to volunteer?
 
oakiecokie said:
All I`m saying Pablo is that too many people react negatively at the thought of something which is "out of the ordinary" and can`t cope with it/change.As I`ve said in a jokingly fashion on another post I`m certain some people think this the end of humanity.They need to get a grip.
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I’ve got my Mother and Grandad who are people this could possibly have a huge effect on, it could easily kill them... but I’m still cracking jokes, sending jokes to mates, pissing myself at Liverpool and just getting on with things like normal.

If you take things too seriously you’re a boring ****! I cracked a joke in work on Friday and someone moaned at me “this is life and death, it’s not a time for jokes” but she couldn’t have been more wrong, this is the time for jokes!

People shouldn’t be so serious about it all. Two people die every second around the world. There are far worse things doing more damage to humans than COVID-19.

All we need to make sure we do is be more hygienic and socially distance. It’s not a time for mass seriousness and the end of humour!
 
domalino said:
Just to butt in but the ICL projections today are suggesting 7,000-20,000 deaths if we put in place the measures they've already said we will. Not 250,000.

Also it won't be 18 months suppression but 3-5, followed by a few relapses which if the vaccine or antibody comes quickly might not happen.

This is what I mean by saying I'm not as panicked as I was 2 hours ago. The fear and doom-mongerers will always come in first and take the worst figures out of context to scare people, and then the real figures come out a bit later.

That's not to underestimate it, this is a major event in human history, but deaths just went from 500,000 to 20,000 in a few comments. And if we can increase ICU beds which everyone says we can, that will drop even more, and if people like Rolls Royce mobilise and make ventilators like they're trying to that will drop more again.
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You're my fave poster now :)
 
paulchapo said:
That's my take on it too. The immediate future looks grim. If we don't die, no social interaction, for many work or money, holidays, hobbies or pastetimes for a good eighteen months. That isn't sustainable and society will break down.
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paulchapo said:
That isn't going to happen. Look at the chaos in supermarkets after just a few days. You will need troops everywhere as looting will become rife when people's food runs out and stores don't get refilled. Anywhere rumoured to have food will be targeted, then it will be individual houses. Hey kids are stabbing people to death now for looking at them the wrong way, they will have no hesitation once they start going hungry. If it was one or two countries they would get aid but this is affecting every country so it will be everyone for themselves. People are panicking now after a week, imagine 18 months?
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paulchapo said:
It is unprecedented since the end of the second world war. We have a society used to instant gratification and plenty of it on demand. A generation who have never been told no or what to do, by teachers and parents and little respect for authority. A nation used to plenty. They better solve the puzzle and quickly or society is finished.
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Fcukinell mate. Your uplifting words were among the first things I read this morning. Do you take bookings for motivational talks?
 
https://www.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

Researchers at Imperial College London, whose disease modelling fed into the government’s new and more stringent coronavirus strategy announced on Monday, said the move could cut UK deaths from Covid-19 from an estimated 260,000 under the previous policy to “a few thousands or tens of thousands.” But measures might need to be sustained for many months or longer to keep suppressing infection. “We might be living in a very different world for a year or more,” said Neil Ferguson, head of the modelling programme at Imperial’s MRC centre for global infectious disease analysis.
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Modelling a scenario similar to the new measures — including social distancing of the whole population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their families — might bring total deaths down to about 20,000 if they were observed strictly, said Azra Ghani, another member of the Imperial team.
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