COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Chippy_boy said:
Not sharp enough Gordon. People are still confused about who should be going out and who shouldn't. I unfortunately heard Piers Morgan (a mistake, I know) saying the same thing this morning.

The government is still not *requiring* people to stay at home unless with valid exceptions. They are not *requiring* pubs to shut, restaurants to close etc. All this does is prolongs things and for no benefit.
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This will all change by the weekend imo.
 
Marvin said:
That thought crosses my mind every day.

Think of the stuff that soldiers have injected into their bodies in advance of the Iraq war when it was suggested that Saddam had biological weapons.

As societies we implemented legislation governing vaccine production and trials. We could undo them if we wanted. This is a choice we make. I am pretty certain that governments do what they want. For example, the Manhattan Project, secretly and without the knowledge of its citizens, dosed sick patients with plutonium so that they could study its effects on the human body. For years the patients thought they were receiving vital medicine but no they were being poisoned. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Plutonium_Files
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BECAUSE VACCINES ARE NO GOOD ONCE YOU ARE INFECTED.
how many times does it need saying.
 
Marvin said:
That thought crosses my mind every day.

Think of the stuff that soldiers have injected into their bodies in advance of the Iraq war when it was suggested that Saddam had biological weapons.

As societies we implemented legislation governing vaccine production and trials. We could undo them if we wanted. This is a choice we make. I am pretty certain that governments do what they want. For example, the Manhattan Project, secretly and without the knowledge of its citizens, dosed sick patients with plutonium so that they could study its effects on the human body. For years the patients thought they were receiving vital medicine but no they were being poisoned. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Plutonium_Files
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As others have posted in reply to Gray, a vaccine isn't a cure, you can't give it to already sick people. If I recall correctly, the flu vaccine needs more or less 2 weeks since injection to make your immune system resistant to a possible virus attack.
As such, apart from volunteers, who would you test it on? People who are more at risk, aka elders or seriously ill? Testing a completely experimental substance on the most frail of people doesn't look like such a bright idea to me.
That's why the first human trials that have begun in the US are on healthy 45 year-olds.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Not sharp enough Gordon. People are still confused about who should be going out and who shouldn't. I unfortunately heard Piers Morgan (a mistake, I know) saying the same thing this morning.

The government is still not *requiring* people to stay at home unless with valid exceptions. They are not *requiring* pubs to shut, restaurants to close etc. All this does is prolongs things and for no benefit.
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doesn’t it help the young to get infected with this virus and be immune to it. I can see why they are drip feeding full lock down
 
BlueHammer85 said:
doesn’t it help the young to get infected with this virus and be immune to it. I can see why they are drip feeding full lock down
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That's one part to it, in all probability. It means in future that a significant percentage may be immune (I say 'may' because it's not certain how long any immunity would last).

The downside is that a parent->child->child2->parent2 chain is potentially set up, which makes it spread more and for longer as the chains connect.
 
Roads were noticeably quieter this morning, little miss Gaz's class at school only has 13 children in instead of the normal 31 today, I'd be absolutely amazed if the schools arent shut by weekend and full lockdown very soon after that.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
In Asda now. Ques for miles. Trolleys ridiculously full. How long can this be sustained ?
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Should get back to something resembling normal after a few days.
If your supply chains are safe, you can have the supermarkets restocked every day.
If people see that the shelves are being repeatedly restocked things will settle down. That message should be repeated over and over on airwaves/media to get it through to people.
The message was being pumped at us day after day over here, reassuring people that out supply chains are safe and we have enough food to feed 40 million people in stock.
As well as the fact that your actions affect others, mainly the most vulnerable....
People stock piling are wasting their money, etc.
 
Marvin said:
Have PHE decided on suppression or mitigation?

This is important because barring a significant mutation this defines where we are going with this.

Definitions:

R: The average number of secondary cases each case generates.
Suppression: Reduce R to below 1.
Mitigation: Reduce R but maintain above 1.

The option to take depends on vaccine production and ant-viral treatments. The latest news in that regards seems encouraging so the correct public health response should be to suppress this virus with every single measure available. We are not doing that. The isolation measures are voluntary. Schools remain open. How can they remain open? That's crazy because although it may not have a visible effect on children it spreads the virus through families and renders measures which parents make during their days almost useless. Keeping schools open whilst socially isolating risk groups would be a hallmark strategy for a mitigation effort.

I understand there are some drawbacks to closing schools such as losing key personnel but the bottom line is 'R'. That has to go down to below 1.

Why aren't we testing people with symptoms? The answer is because we do not have testing resources, and we do not have an incentive to do so because there is no forensic system in place to take that testing data and then follow-up contacts. Yet that is the most important defence strategy that a nation has. This is why is is the central WHO theme and yet none of the Western countries are doing this. Not a single one. That's because their health systems do no have the resources. Isn't that why we elect governments to allocate resources?
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Suppression relates to suppressing viral peak, it is the same as mitigation.
 
robbieh said:
I concur with this. Here in Spain they are obviously trying the first option, suppression.
As I understand it in maybe a month the numbers will be exponentially lower due to isolation of the entire population. Those who have had it, will no longer be infectious.

There will of course be some infected still in the community but by following the type of policies that Korea have they can be contained. And isolation will end.

International travel would in my opinion be daft as people coming from countries that have still got the disease could restart it.

Britain's approach seems neither one thing not the other. While people still go into work, go to the pub, schools remain open, infection rates will still be high.
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The term 'suppression', as used by the UK experts and their modellers, refers to suppressing the virus not the people.
 
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Instead of moaning we should have done things earlier because the infection rate has risen, shouldn't we just be focussing on the capacity of the hospital beds available to treat those who needs them?
It's not how many are getting sick, it's rate we can treat those worse affected.
If the beds are at the limit now, then ok a full lock down is needed.

They have said from the start that the tactics would change based on demand. New data is coming in all they time and that is being used to predict what happens next.
So one day a certain tactic is best, another it isn't. That doesn't mean the previous day was a mistake. It was just the best decision on that day.

Lockdowns only work for so long. Repeated off and ons don't work at all. You can only be proactive if you know fully what you are dealing with.
The data coming from other countries isn't entirely accurate or comprehensive, so cannot be fully trusted.

Everybody is an expert after an event etc.
 
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mancity2012_eamo said:
Should get back to something resembling normal after a few days.
If your supply chains are safe, you can have the supermarkets restocked every day.
If people see that the shelves are being repeatedly restocked things will settle down. That message should be repeated over and over on airwaves/media to get it through to people.
The message was being pumped at us day after day over here, reassuring people that out supply chains are safe and we have enough food to feed 40 million people in stock.
As well as the fact that your actions affect others, mainly the most vulnerable....
People stock piling are wasting their money, etc.
Click to expand...

just boggles my mind how the world can have enough resources to copy with the constant supply demands , not just the food, but plastic, packaging and yes, even loo rolls.
 
Uffa said:
As others have posted in reply to Gray, a vaccine isn't a cure, you can't give it to already sick people. If I recall correctly, the flu vaccine needs more or less 2 weeks since injection to make your immune system resistant to a possible virus attack.
As such, apart from volunteers, who would you test it on? People who are more at risk, aka elders or seriously ill? Testing a completely experimental substance on the most frail of people doesn't look like such a bright idea to me.
That's why the first human trials that have begun in the US are on healthy 45 year-olds.
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A Chinese professor was taking it himself when the Wuhan crisis was raging according to Chinese state media and these reports were carried in the English press.
 
Marvin said:
A Chinese professor was taking it himself when the Wuhan crisis was raging according to Chinese state media and these reports were carried in the English press.
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Good for him? I guess it was a really early prototype.
 
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