COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Chippy_boy said:
@blueinsa and @Churchlawtonblue and @Gelsons Dad

Look at Italy right now. Stats:

Known cases: 10,149
Recovered: 1,004
Dead: 631
Active: 8514

Death rate (assuming 100% of those 8514 recover, which is hardly likely): 631/10,149 = 6.2%

We *hope* that there are another 50,000 people who are infected but not in the system, and we hope that all of them will recover as well. If that is true then the death rate may "only" be 1%. 631/60,000 = 1%.
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Just for completeness, using the rate based on known outcomes, it's 38.6%.
 
Mikeegrini said:
So in UK terms, using the above median figure (30%) of population plus the lesser Italian rate of severe medical need (10%) that equates to 22,000,000 infected and therefore 2,200,000 needing hospitalisation?
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10% severe medical is higher than normal.

current breakdown ( Dr Campbells videos )

15% needing some medical assistance,
5% critical need.

so if by your number of 22m infected then 3.3m will need help and 1.1m critical.

with Italian 10% critical then yeah 2.2m critical hospital care.
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
That's Italy though and there are countries with much lower death rates.
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True enough, so there is hope. But we can exclude those countries where community spread has not happened yet, i.e. they are still in the containment phase. They have not "got going" yet.

Of the others, what do they have in common? A coordinated, country-wide approach, with significant changes made to peoples' daily lives and everyone bought into it. Not "Well I don't see what all the fuss is about and I am just going to carry on as normal".
 
purplenose said:
My mrs is in trouble if she gets it, Its not a great idea for me either so were it to be relatively safe over there and like Italy or worse here I would be a fool to fly back in May I suspect. Very difficult choices lie ahead.
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Indeed - I have been chatting it through with my wife over lunch and we realise that we have to recognise that once having left we may have to accept an enforced extended stay.

I hope not - but if that was what develops we will be likely glad to be in a location where we have more chance of avoiding infection
 
People still seem quite fixated on the mortality rate rather than the bigger picture. Aside from deaths, the problem is also massively tied up in how many people it hospitalises. It's draining resources and it could take vital workers out of action in big numbers. People are arguing over statistics and percentages when surely we should all be reaching some consensus now that we all have to take some collective responsibility in order to navigate this. Rather than writing it off as mass hysteria, everybody should be at least be following guidelines and doing whatever is reasonably practicable to slow the spread. Some people may be asked to do a bit more and hopefully the rest of us, especially employers and cohabitants etc can do their best to facilitate that.
 
I had a conference in Manchester so came in early. Packed train with someone coughing and sniffing... if in a proper paid job I hope she got sent straight home but it can only be a matter of time before someone has a go at someone for travelling with an undiagnosed infection.
 
Ban-jani said:
Government seemingly does very little - outrage by the left.

Government takes strong measures - “they don’t really mean it” .
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I'm not quite sue what you mean? I haven't said they 'don't really mean it'. Also, who are 'the left', exactly?

I was highlighting that the Government appear to be taking this very seriously. Which is a good thing. Does that mean I'm not 'left' anymore?
 
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