COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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With regards to care homes, admittedly this is only 1 example but I bumped into a guy I know walking the dog last Sunday who is in his 70s. His brother is in Gorton Parks care home and the day before he got a letter saying that they were in lockdown and no visitors were allowed due to 2 people having contracted Covid-19 - 1 staff member and 1 patient.
Father-in-law's care home in Oldham is in lockdown from 18.00 tonight, no reports of any issues, think they're just reducing the risk.
 
Could you explain this for those of us who are mathematically thick as pig shit?

Once you know w = cases that have been tested positive all the rest is pretty straightforward, in mathematical terms the answer is 42

42 = This virus isn’t very good which is a shame because 41 = go to the pub and get shit faced.
 
New cases is now simply a measure of how many people have:
1. Contacted 111 due to being at risk and have reported symptoms and have subsequently tested positive; - OR -
2. Have contacted 999 due to having breathing difficulties and have subsequently tested positive.

This equates to about 8% (plucking a guestimate figure out of the air) of actual new cases, so multiply new cases by 100 and divide by 8 to get a rough guide to the number of actual new cases.

That's 825 based on the reported rise of 66 on Wednesday.

Those numbers though are still pretty good in my opinion.

Just to confirm:
The 66 figure is new cases to 9am this morning (Thursday).
More like 825 in reality.

it was 676 cases on Wednesday.
More like 8474 in reality.

and 476 cases on Tuesday.
More like 5950 in reality.

With a Coronavirus incubation period of 1-14 days (5 on average), we MAY be seeing the results of the actions taken on Friday. Let us see how things progress over the next few days before cheering.
 
If/when the lockdown comes, what are the time scales?

Surely they can’t just announce it and say ‘go home now’ but then again they can’t give a weeks’ notice as everyone will be raiding and looting shelves in preparation.

24 hours?
 
If/when the lockdown comes, what are the time scales?

Surely they can’t just announce it and say ‘go home now’ but then again they can’t give a weeks’ notice as everyone will be raiding and looting shelves in preparation.

24 hours?
In Spain the bars restaurants etc were told Friday afternoon that all businesses to close at midnight that night then it was the Saturday when they confirmed lockdown at 8am Monday so most got the weekend to sort their shit.
 
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