COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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oakiecokie said:
Guess work could become a new venture for some new students.Chippy to the rescue.
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Really fucking ironic that pal. Here's me pouring over numbers and looking at projections and here's you with your head in the sand and you accuse me of guesswork. Another "Wow" is in order I think.
 
I took the dog out for the 1 hour exercise this afternoon and have to say it was the quietest i have seen since the restrictions were introduced.

I suspect it has more to do with the temperature plummeting and the cold winds though than some of these moron's seeing the light.
 
karen7 said:
Clocks going fowards is going to be a big test,warmer and lighter makes people want to go out,could have done with this all happening as tbe clocks went back
Saw an ariel shot of brighton beach today,it was empty,with the odd walker here and there,lets hope it stays that way
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I was just saying the weather today is nowhere near as good as it has been this week, i suspect this will encourage people to stay at home.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Not by who, by what. By the maths. I'll tell you what, because I have fuck all else to do atm, I will do you a little graph to show you, OK. Give me 10 minutes ... OK done.



Here's the data. Daily deaths since we had a sensible sample - 10 on March 14. The line is the best fit exponential growth curve as given by the formula shown. The green blobs are the projected numbers of deaths yesterday and Friday. The stars are the actual figures.

Now if you want to continue to argue that the stars are "expected" figures, carry on.
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That seems to expect that the death rate will stay at a fairly constant % increase throughout, without any major spikes. I would have thought that unlikely.

Ultimately, the scientists who have done the modelling that has shaped the strategy are the ones who will know if these increases are expected within their model.
 
karen7 said:
Clocks going fowards is going to be a big test,warmer and lighter makes people want to go out,could have done with this all happening as tbe clocks went back
Saw an ariel shot of brighton beach today,it was empty,with the odd walker here and there,lets hope it stays that way
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I think it will. Nothing will keep people indoors more than the fear of death itself, and as the number of those increases, so too will the likelihood that people know someone either directly/indirectly affected.
 
domalino said:
Neil Ferguson, the head epidemiologist who wrote the models half the world are following said we will now get much fewer than 20,000 deaths.

Hes got access to a lot more data than the public like number of people currently in hospital, on ICU wards etc. And hes come across as very reluctant to be positive before so I think he is probably right.
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Ahem.
 
What's the household situation like for people on here? Must be difficult for big family units all in the same house but equally for people on their own
 
abu13 said:
I took the dog out for the 1 hour exercise this afternoon and have to say it was the quietest i have seen since the restrictions were introduced.

I suspect it has more to do with the temperature plummeting and the cold winds though than some of these moron's seeing the light.
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I was just going to reply to Karen that I took the dog out early as it was lovely up here and I knew it would be busier, it was busier even then but the weather had changed by the time I got back to the car. In fact next door were going out as I left and looked a bit guilty about it, he said they were going out as it was far too nice a day. They arrived back 2 minutes after I did which made me smile.
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
That seems to expect that the death rate will stay at a fairly constant % increase throughout, without any major spikes. I would have thought that unlikely.

Ultimately, the scientists who have done the modelling that has shaped the strategy are the ones who will know if these increases are expected within their model.
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It's been a long time since someone posted one of these, but in this case it's entirely appropriate:

Paris_Tuileries_Garden_Facepalm_statue.jpg


OF COURSE you expect daily variations. But when the figures look like what I just posted, it's not unreasonable to say they are higher than expected.

F F S.

Look at the ****ing graph. Of course the numbers are up and down and yet there is a projected growth path. Figures above the line are higher than expected, those lower than it, lower than expected.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Why are you surprised? The numbers are as expected. You give the impression of following the data and if that's the case you know what the trajectory should be and what the lag between interventions and outcomes should be.

PhjpK4i2nGzrRDsTXYaE4LaZiV_w-Q0578-9zSabU7-acob6LxmVyfUavHcgTBdptfWHIy6mFJSBl4KPFvCuZfQm18ybyl8i8lS6nVAp85VaVQxuwkvS9TYW0aYMPtdNcDFUS7b9VHZj_dkXDYLAHf636po9KWoBmiRrNAuh5Z8dzW-Vy6dAMkBAs2kFZ7SfEgk6WuiUxOMPO3J73ge7O0mfBATjVOFMpRdshsO4Zq92-YbrFd75dgZ76wpPuS9PNEUbOqpR9fu42-_UQa0aCVdwXO22iLoIxfvnXQ3wMWQfSI2jbq1kTuiDzdvvHUan6syP9mR5g8ctklc6BrZ9zTQHyIDMSACU26pTbLhIhq7oO1ijHPBHZRb1ttBSEAzcoLxI-ucF3yG066MuRWSeXWlaTYcdD7bpYA-RX4UypV7gcpFjNm2a0s0NmSrGsebqcrkb2ruynvcWY19tsNQDZ5JoLGe7feOjqz7oROoia8w5EeQc7_i07U1scrrxt-z48SfThUf9PNp11vVfEJL50YjNmFYGOZUqtkeRvAMB5ILlFI6sN3ImIeK8AV-hp-kjXtmE5QKd5pbQBgq0QO8fwg1SVruxQ0zWm2w_yoyFKRAyh3P84nCbYnw-7rQ0zilWtnhaVmtDnltxC2aJp0rtm9iB7lp3sFdWKt4O88eTvFNYdmQV6g3Elbg7aW1d5w=w1572-h958-no
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This looks exactly as predicted if using a simple model like y = 1.37^x, where y is no of dead and x is days since 6 March. So on 28 March y = 1·37^22 = 1018. 27 March y = 1·37^21=743. 26 March y = 1·37^20=542. ?
 
Less daily cases today but part of that is down to the way the testing is being done.

Really worrying how fast the death toll is rising though, slightly better than Italy but worse than Spain at the same point.

Heart goes out to everyone directly affected (I feel like it could be all of us at some point).
 
oakiecokie said:
You need to look at all the points I`ve been making.Todays figures are nothing compared to what they will be in the next couple of weeks so I`m not concerned as they are probably on par with what the Government and their advisors have been saying to us for at least the last 10 days or so.
No point in flapping nor worrying as there`s fuck all we do about it,except heed the warnings of what NOT to do, until a vaccine comes along ... if ever.
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Agree, heeding advice has not helped the top 3 leaders on it, last weekend was certainly not following advise, it is very concerning and hopefully has no effect and me or mine. But as a non selfish citizen,I am also concerned for all.
 
NHS England

We are not at capacity yet within london but beds are being opened all the time to produce that extra surge capacity,the peak is starting to happen

Keeping deaths under 20,000 would be a 'good result'

Mr Powis insists it's "possible to get on top of this virus".

"If we can reduce the transmission rate... then the virus will start to decline in the population," he explains - but only if "we all comply with the measures and reduce that amount of transmission".

Mr Powis continues: "The number of deaths that arise out of this epidemic in the UK, if it's less than 20,000 as Sir Patrick Vallance [the government's chief scientific adviser] said that would be a good result - although every death as I've said is absolutely a tragedy...

"Although that will be a good result, it will only happen if we stop the transmission of the virus


Govt making it easier for suppliers to make hand sanitiser

Soon, the government will be "removing administrative barriers" to the production of hand sanitiser, Mr Sharma says.

He adds that suppliers - such as Brewdog - will be able to bring the product to market in a matter of days


Business Secretary Alok Sharma says as of 9am on 28 March 120,776 people have been tested for the new coronavirus - 103,687 were negative and 17,089 positive.

As of 5pm on 27 March, 1,019 patients have died, he adds

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ster-to-give-daily-covid-19-briefing-11965046
 
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