COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Mate I think your posts on herd immunity are well intentioned and you clearly understand the logic behind the theory.
But the Health Secretary Matt Hancock said yesterday that herd immunity was not the official government strategy. The WHO and wider scientific community were alarmed at the noises that it was an official position. Until someone from the UK government comes out and explicitly says it is, I don’t think it’s helpful to be spreading it (pun intended). I’d encourage you to read this article from Matt Hanage who researches and teaches the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. He’s more qualified than any of us to pass comment. His initial reaction when he heard the UK government’s position was herd immunity is that he thought it was satire. https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
Yes, someone posted his tweet about our national policy being a parody. There are clearly differences among experts about the best way forward but my reaction is that his social media catchline was unhelpful and the article you linked is actually pretty bad - eg " About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future." The suggestion that vulnerable people are being deliberately exposed is the exact opposite of what our government merasures are aiming to do. Also, there may be some differences between Covid19 and other viruses but all epidemics end because of immunity through the creation of resistant antibodies in the recovered population.
 
All the family had that horrific coughing flu over Christmas. Non stop coughing for nigh on 2 weeks. I hadn't been ill for so long (I put it down to a heavy exercise routine) but yesterday I once again came down with feeling awful. Last night I had shiver, stomach pains, sickness and muscle aches...haven't felt to rough for some time. No respiratory issues however. Perhaps it's the anxiety over all this manifesting into an illness (felt like food poisoning tbf).
I wouldn't worry too much about it. There seems to be something going round apart from the dreaded.
 
We have to realise that the government has other compulsions than solely the health of the population. They will have one eye on the effect on the economy etc. They will of course dress it up to sound like our welfare is the priority but I think they will be looking at it in a more holistic way, which may or may not be the right thing for the country as a whole in the long run but in the short term it may be devastating to the population.
My own feeling is that this is a large part of the UK government's thinking. Rightly or wrongly, depending on how you view things.
Here in Ireland we closed down creches and schools last Friday and bars/pubs last night. There is already an estimated 140,000 people out of work as a result. This will rise when restaurants and cafes close and all the suppliers of these establishments will probably also lay off staff.
The airlines and airport staff are going to be affected soon.
The fact that the government here have issued the recommendations means there is already measures to give a job seekers allowance. However if people up north decide to get ahead of the curve and take there kids out of school or creches, if pubs close earlier than directed etc., then the NI Assembly does not have entitlement to funds released from Westminster to aid those laid off.
I understand the predicament Arlene Foster & Co are in and although I would love an all island approach as I can't see anything else being effective, they are caught between a rock and a hard place, although I do suspect that their default position is to do what they're told by the UK government anyway.

This is going to hit big in everyone's pockets as well as our concerns for our elderly loved ones. This will wipe out businesses and people's livelihoods too if a cohesive plan is not there from all governments on how to deal with all aspects of this crisis.
I don't go with the conspiracy theory element that the UK government don't care about the elderly. I don't see much difference in what their aim is TBH to the rest of the world, it's just the timing and I don't understand their delay of a week to two weeks behind everyone else, as I see the courses of action they will take as inevitable anyway.

Where I think they have failed is in the first step of putting the Collective Action Strategy into operation. That is you have to first convince everyone that what you are doing is the right action. They were poor or at least very slow to communicate their reasoning and have still not convinced their population that they are expecting compliance from.
This has led to organisations taking steps themselves ahead of the government advice and the government now seemingly following behind public opinion in some cases.

I think we are all heading the same direction and ultimately there will be a kind of shutdown across Europe. We will need a coordinated effort to deal with the long term.
The short term disagreements won't mean much when we're all in the same boat.
 
I don't think there's a problem in principle with the herd immunity idea Bob. The effect is well understood and when populations reach a point where a critical mass of people have immunity then the infection rate, R0, drops below 1 and then the virus peters out. Quickly or slowly depending on how much lower than 1, R0 is. I don't believe there is any requirement for this to take years.

The problems are two-fold. The first needs saying, and that is no-one is absolutely sure that we do gain the necessary level of immunity having been infected. Scientists - for example only this morning on BBC Breakfast - are saying things like "probably", "assuming this behaves like other coronaviruses". So probably that's OK, but there is still a question mark.

The other, much bigger problem, is that there is no way you can get to the likely herd immunity threshold of 60% of the population (40m people infected) without crippling the NHS. It is a non-starter as a strategy. It is now being said that it is not the strategy, merely and expected outcome. Well that may be true, but if that outcome is to be achieved over coming months, it means the NHS being completely overwhelmed and countless numbers of needless deaths. Again, it is a non-starter.

The only way to limit the numbers of dead, is to *not* overload the NHS and that needs every conceivable action to be taken. Monitoring, testing, isolation, limiting social interaction - barring it where possible etc. Unless we get tough on all of the above we are not going to limit it enough. China was completely overloaded and they locked down before we have.
I agree with the problems with attempting to build herd immunity in the context of this outbreak that you have listed (I have previously expounded on them) but establishing herd immunity without vaccination usually *does* take years in a ‘normal’, large, isolated population with no pathogen mutation. I think @BobKowalski was making the point that it was never going to be a viable strategy in of itself, even leaving out the very real issues you, I, and many more learned experts have outlined.

Whether the government intends or intended for it to be the main plank in their plan is up for debate — they seem to be a bit inconsistent with their messaging regarding that since the initial day of response escalation when it was referenced.

It may have just been bad communication which lead to misunderstanding (as it’s not just us on here that thought establishing herd immunity was a main element of the response based on their words) or it could be it was the greater thrust but they are now walking it back due to the backlash.

We’ll probably never *really* know.

But it is safe to say if it was ever the primary element of the response, the general scientific consensus (excluding apparently a few groups advising the government) is that it is a very risky and problematic plan.
 
Talking to a paramedic today in an RTC he said if you ate old and get it you will die, it’s lethal, my mum and dad are in lockdown and I’m doing the shopping for them when needed

Well that's quite clearly ridiculous and frankly staggering for someone to be saying to the public. That MP's mum got it and she was 84 I believe for example, said she only suffered mild symptoms.
 
Im guilty of having not taken this as seriously as I probably should have been doing at the minute but im at a loss what I personally can actually do. Im relatively young, fit and healthy (ish)

Me and Mrs Gaz already do the shopping for her 84 year old Gran, do I need to keep my kids away from her? Should I now be leaving her shopping on the doorstep? My mum and dad are 62, both still working, ex and current smoker respectively at what point do I need to start encouraging them to stay at home and self isolate?

Appreciate this information is 99% out there already but having read this full thread im more inclined to listen to some of the people on here than others.
 
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