COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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BlueAnorak said:
Interesting how this spike Friday through Sunday corresponds with the Pre-Lockdown party.
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People are far too fixated with this. I bet the number of people in close proximity on public transport in the five days leading up to that Friday evening far exceeded the numbers in the pubs and restaurants that night. The notion that it alone will cause a discernible spike in the numbers is fanciful imo, against the backdrop of what preceded it.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
People are far too fixated with this. I bet the number of people in close proximity on public transport in the five days leading up to that Friday evening far exceeded the numbers in the pubs and restaurants that night. The notion that it alone will cause a discernible spike in the numbers is fanciful imo, against the backdrop of what preceded it.
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Exactly. It was hardly York away, ffs.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
People are far too fixated with this. I bet the number of people in close proximity on public transport in the five days leading up to that Friday evening far exceeded the numbers in the pubs and restaurants that night. The notion that it alone will cause a discernible spike in the numbers is fanciful imo, against the backdrop of what preceded it.
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That's a fair point in terms of numbers getting it. I think it's more to do with what constitutes a luxury and what constitutes essential though. We all know that going to the pub or restaurant isn't essential but travelling on public transport to get to work when you can't work from home, and have no other means of getting there, is. London is a huge worry in that regard with commuters packing out the tube, etc, but as someone who used public transport once to get to work in the week leading up to that "Mad Friday", the buses were quite sparsely populated in Manchester, and I'm guessing in all other cities apart from London it was the same.
 
According to my next door neighbour.
A tiger in New York zoo has tested positive.
Anyone else heard this
 
SWP's back said:
This from the same guy explains how, unlike Flu, a vaccine for Covid-19 is likely to work and it won’t mutate so much that a vaccine does work.

I’m going to save the article as I’m sure the discussion will move on to this in the months to come.



and the article:

https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-vaccine
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Interesting article and some good analogies in their to help get a handle on the science behind this. Helping with my lad's project that I set him on pathogens and we are actually covering the subject of vaccines now.

You may also find this article from Nature magazine quite interesting which we have been using- it covers the Five key questions of a vaccine as trials begin, it's weighted on the durability of any immunity and touches on sars and mers findings:-

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00798-8
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
People are far too fixated with this. I bet the number of people in close proximity on public transport in the five days leading up to that Friday evening far exceeded the numbers in the pubs and restaurants that night. The notion that it alone will cause a discernible spike in the numbers is fanciful imo, against the backdrop of what preceded it.
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What pub were you in pal? ;)
 
fulabeer said:
The thing with masks is knowing how to use and dispose of them.
Those mask wearing countries showing less viral impact (assuming you believe the official numbers) are more used to dealing with a sudden outbreaks, therefore masks are only part of equation. Tougher enforcement and a more obedient population also helps.
Even if they help lower the impact of the first wave, it means there are more people to get it in the second wave.

It seems most people will get this at some point because social distancing/isolation only slows it down.
We have seen what the government was saying about us only having one shot at a lockdown. People are already showing complete contempt for what is happening. A second lock down during a large second wave won't be properly observed.

So for what works in one country, doesn't necessarily work in another.
It's not a competition. Just because our figures don't better anothers, doesn't mean we are not doing well etc.
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I hear what you are saying but there is a fundamental flaw in the various assumptions above "most people will get this at some point".

That absolutely must not be allowed to happen and it can be prevented. It must be prevented. If it is only as deadly as flu and say 40m or 50m people get it then that means 50,000 people dead. Which would mean multiples of that needing ICU treatment and we have nowhere near the capacity to cater for those numbers in any sorts of near timescale, so even more dead.

The objective is to prevent as many people as possible from getting this, not forever, but until a vaccine arrives. And then vaccinate everyone.
 
johnmc said:
What pub were you in pal? ;)
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Honestly thought about it when the announcement was first made and then decided against it, partly because the PM urged against it towards the end of his speech that afternoon. It made me reflect and I decided it was both unnecessary and selfish, so I got hammered at home instead!
 
M18CTID said:
That's a fair point in terms of numbers getting it. I think it's more to do with what constitutes a luxury and what constitutes essential though. We all know that going to the pub or restaurant isn't essential but travelling on public transport to get to work when you can't work from home, and have no other means of getting there, is. London is a huge worry in that regard with commuters packing out the tube, etc, but as someone who used public transport once to get to work in the week leading up to that "Mad Friday", the buses were quite sparsely populated in Manchester, and I'm guessing in all other cities apart from London it was the same.
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I agree with all of that, and also agree with the distinction you draw between London and the rest of the country. I also think that people who did visit the pub that night were being irresponsible and selfish, I just think the way some people attribute it to a discernible and significant increase in infections and deaths are failing to apply any sense of proportionality to the situation. I don’t think it made that much of a difference, relatively speaking.
 
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