COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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DrBlueBob said:
Apparently it's a different strain so I think I am correct in saying that you can get as close as you like with no danger to you or others. It's best to stick to facts not scaremongering in these difficult times.
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Phew that’s a relief. I presume I can get out of the car at Knowsley Safari Park in the Tiger enclosure and I’ll be ok.
 
asahartford1 said:
He seemed to think we did have the capability. Just not the will. 10 million a day, all the labs in the country could do it.
Was on sky news , try to listen to him. He is highly thought of specialist.
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I'm sure he's a genius in his field, but I'm sure he isn't a logistics expert either. We literally don't have anything close to that capability. A shortage of testing equipment around the world has been documented extensively. They're aiming to get, and this is according to the government a few days ago, 100k a day by the end of April. That's ages away, and i'd be surprised if they manage that. Even 100k a day would only cover 700k a week. We'd have to multiply that by just under 100 times to test the whole population every week.

I would love it to happen, but it feels scarily unrealistic. Hopefully more plausible ways out of this are mooted.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Stop being so negative ffs!
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It's not negativity it's fucking reality.

You can't lock the entire world up for 18 months and you can't test 20x more people per week than the entire world managed in the first 3 months.

Even when the antibody tests come in, they won't be able to make 66,000,000 test kits a week.
 
domalino said:
Hmm, yeah, really can't see why we're not aiming for this.

All we need to do is test 66,000,000 people every week. That's only 62,000,000 more tests than the entire world had carried out by 30th March.
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Yes I did realise that a leader in the field, a highly rated epidemiologist, with massive experience would be a pillock in your esteemed eyes, has he not messaged you. ?
 
asahartford1 said:
Interesting from julian peto, epidemiologist. Test all population , every week, pandemic over.
He is the expert, not sure why we are not aiming for this.
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Lack of: Swabs, Chemicals, Machines.
Takes a while to ramp up production and every country in the world is chasing the same goal, so it's difficult to achieve.
Germany, through Roche and others, was ahead of the game with a massive medical test production capability to start with.
Even they're months away.
 
asahartford1 said:
Yes I did realise that a leader in the field, a highly rated epidemiologist, with massive experience would be a pillock in your esteemed eyes, has he not messaged you. ?
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This is the problem. He's an epidemiologist, if he talks about epidemiology then I will listen to him 100%.

But he's not, he's talking about mass pharmaceutical manufacturing, and I doubt he's an expert in that, which is why he's saying things that are completely out of line with every health authority in the world.

Unfortunately I can't really assess fully what Peto has said because he's chosen to publish this strategy which would save millions of lives behind the Financial TImes paywall so very few people can read it.
 
twosips said:
I'm sure he's a genius in his field, but I'm sure he isn't a logistics expert either. We literally don't have anything close to that capability. A shortage of testing equipment around the world has been documented extensively. They're aiming to get, and this is according to the government a few days ago, 100k a day by the end of April. That's ages away, and i'd be surprised if they manage that. Even 100k a day would only cover 700k a week. We'd have to multiply that by just under 100 times to test the whole population every week.

I would love it to happen, but it feels scarily unrealistic. Hopefully more plausible ways out of this are mooted.
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New York inoculated 6 million people in 3 days 1947. 70 years ago
 
BlueAnorak said:
Have to agree.
You can however do what a vaccine does the more costly way. That involves taking blood plasma from survivors and injecting it into those at risk.
That would be greatly helped if an antibody test was available as you could identify those who have had it who haven't been in hospital.
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I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago that the Spain was looking to do that, not sure if the UK are doing it?
 
asahartford1 said:
New York inoculated 6 million people in 3 days 1947. 70 years ago
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So they did something totally different, to 10% of the numbers of our current population. That's not really the same is it? Giving an inoculation is an awful lot easier than a coronavirus test. Also, that just means they had the means to inoculate 6 million people. We don't have the means to test more than 12k people a day. How are they gonna pull out 66 million testing kits a week?
 
twosips said:
So they did something totally different, to 10% of the numbers of our current
Ipopulation. That's not really the same is it? Giving an inoculation is an awful lot easier than a coronavirus test. Also, that just means they had the means to inoculate 6 million people. We don't have the means to test more than 12k people a day. How are they gonna pull out 66 million testing kits a week?
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I dont know, neither an expert in logistics or epidemiology, I thought it worth posting as he was .
 
twosips said:
So they did something totally different, to 10% of the numbers of our current population. That's not really the same is it? Giving an inoculation is an awful lot easier than a coronavirus test. Also, that just means they had the means to inoculate 6 million people. We don't have the means to test more than 12k people a day. How are they gonna pull out 66 million testing kits a week?
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Just to back this up, innoculating someone is literally a 2 minute thing. We've all lined up at school and had a TB jab. Sit down, wipe with disinfectant, stick someone in the arm, give them a cotton bud to stick on it. Next.

PCR testing means a difficult nasal swab, then sending the swabs to the lab, then having a lab tech run the PCR test which takes hours in small batches.

The two are nothing alike.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
Sweden PM expects thousands of deaths but still refuses to lock down , pubs bars etc all still open. Idiots.
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I thought they were locking down after criticism of them not doing well comparatively with the other Nordic countries? They’re gonna be in for a lot of criticism if they stay open and thousands die.

After a few weeks now there is clear evidence that those that were pro active, closed borders and locked down quicker and stricter are doing much better than those that didn’t.
 
jay_mcfc said:
thought they were locking down after criticism of them not doing well comparatively with the other Nordic countries? They’re gonna be in for a lot of criticism if they stay open and thousands die.
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If they stay open and a few thousand die then no one will criticise them. They'll have gotten the same results as every other country without shutting down.
 
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