COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[squirtyflower]

The same stat tomorrow will have a number of days’ worth of non-reported community deaths added.

There was one day last week where the reported deaths for one day was 477 out.

They add the deaths ‘outside of hospital’ on a Tuesday.
Naturally that would see a sharp increase and panic will ensue.
However the underlying trend over the week is the statistic to look at.

 

[Chippy_boy]

*only* 403 deaths announced in England today. Was expecting a lot more.

Hugely encouraging news that. Of course 1 data point does not mean much but nevertheless its a big drop, on the back of another drop. Realistically the figures today could have been as high as 700 or 800 had the growth still been accelerating.

Fingers crossed this trend continues. I cannot imagine we are over the worst yet, but maybe, just maybe we are? Sure as hell hope so.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

How many dead people is the tipping point? the day the NHS gets overrun is the day that figure sky rockets.

It depends when the peak of the virus hits; how many ventilators (and technology substitutes) we have in place; and whether the cases are particularly concentrated or spread widely. We had 9,000 and odd ventilators yesterday and have a pathway over the next weeks / months to get to 18.500.

 

[DrBlueBob]

Girlfriend has 2 cats and I’m shitting it now when they come near!!

Grab yourself a Tiger beer and show them who is boss.

 

[Manc in London]

Yes

Some theories flying around:

• Barnet is middle class so the theory goes that a significant number of them are in the ski-set who were in Italy earlier in the year
• There is one hospital in Enfield (a borough adjacent to Barnet). This in the SE of the borough. A few of those in Enfield think the clientele is a bit too 'ethnic' for them, so those from the wealthier west of Enfield travel further west to Barnet Hospital. The hospital in Enfield (near White Hart Lane) is grim, to be fair, and in a high crime area
• About 7-8k Chinese live in Barnet. The theory being that a number of them had visited China for the new year celebrations

Just to be clear, I am not suggesting these may explain the differences.

 

[worsleyweb]

Minimum economic damage was ALWAYS going to be caused by locking down sooner and harder. If we'd done so 2 weeks prior, and stopping fucking about with allowing crap like Cheltenham to go ahead and then when we did lockdown, not with this "it's ok to go out to exercise" bollocks, the peak would have been several weeks ago and we'd be very near to opening up pubs and restaurants again. The period of disruption although more severe would have been much shorter and survivable by more businesses.

That it has gone on - and will go on - as long as it is, is entirely due to the peak being bigger and taking longer to peak, because it's a bigger peak. And longer to decay back down again.

We could have simply hit the <pause> button on the economy, the government paid everyone for a short period and then we'd be back to some semblance of normality quite quickly. And the economy would bounce back.

This is still the best approach, we just made it more difficult. The sooner we have this thing under control, the sooner we can start getting back to normal and restarting the economy with the minimal of businesses lost. We do not minimise the length of the lockdown by allowing a few businesses to limp along. It actually hurts them more in the long run.

Chippy - give it a rest mate for your own sanity - we know your view.

 

[grunge]

Hugely encouraging news that. Of course 1 data point does not mean much but nevertheless its a big drop, on the back of another drop. Realistically the figures today could have been as high as 700 or 800 had the growth still been accelerating.

Fingers crossed this trend continues. I cannot imagine we are over the worst yet, but maybe, just maybe we are? Sure as hell hope so.

Sorry for me this will just be a blip.

lockdown will reduce cases, that will then reduce deaths a couple of weeks later. in that order.

Hopefully we will start to see reduction in cases soon.

 

[paulchapo]

that would be the B in the NBC that we all feared and trained for back in the cold war days and why they are outlawed and feared to this day.
https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/bio/

Yes with very good cause. The problem is work will still be going on to develop them.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Any idea of the real death rate for the UK? As far as I can gather only deaths in hospitals are being counted. If that is true then it's a case of massaging the figures so it doesn't look quite so bad.

ONS do a catch up every Tuesday with each of the previous days figures updated accordingly. After last week, statistical opinion from the Royal Statistical Society seems to be that they will add 10% to the numbers.
We are however counting them. Italy, Spain and to some extent Framce have not counterd them properly for weeks though they should catch up to some degree eventually - if COVID-19 is on the death certificate of course.

 

[Claytop]

Without wanting to be too negative I think this will be similar to last weekends numbers where they went down only to shoot up again on the Tuesday.

 

[DrBlueBob]

In a word ... yes.If not then I truly despair at that poster inchy.

Oi! Of course I was joking. Just because I joked about your Mum being 192. You never struck me as the sort to hold a grudge. ;-)

 

[The blue phantom]

Hugely encouraging news that. Of course 1 data point does not mean much but nevertheless its a big drop, on the back of another drop. Realistically the figures today could have been as high as 700 or 800 had the growth still been accelerating.

Fingers crossed this trend continues. I cannot imagine we are over the worst yet, but maybe, just maybe we are? Sure as hell hope so.

Most folk were forecasting a 1000 deaths a day this week leading up to the peak. Especially after hitting 700 couple of days ago. As you say fingers crossed I guess.

 

[BlueAnorak]

*only* 403 deaths announced in England today. Was expecting a lot more.

That's just hospital deaths. There is now some inclusion of deaths elsewhere in all the home countries figures.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Some theories flying around:

• Barnet is middle class so the theory goes that a significant number of them are in the ski-set who were in Italy earlier in the year
• There is one hospital in Enfield (a borough adjacent to Barnet). This in the SE of the borough. A few of those in Enfield think the clientele is a bit too 'ethnic' for them, so those from the wealthier west of Enfield travel further west to Barnet Hospital. The hospital in Enfield (near White Hart Lane) is grim, to be fair, and in a high crime area
• About 7-8k Chinese live in Barnet. The theory being that a number of them had visited China for the new year celebrations

Just to be clear, I am not suggesting these may explain the differences.

Interesting; thanks for that.

 

[oakiecokie]

Oi! Of course I was joking. Just because I joked your Mum being 192. You never struck me as the sort to hold a grudge. ;-)

Good man :) Grudge ? Never. Lifes to short.However if you are/were a scouser then my whole mood my change ... and not for the better. ;)

 

[lefty goldblatt]

Apologies if this has been raised before.

At 05:30 this morning, TWO ambulances and an ambulance car, turned up at the house opposite.
An 80ish lady lives there with her husband. She's been in poor health for a year or so (as good as housebound), and (I assume it was her), saw someone stretchered into the back of one of the ambulances. The thing is, ALL of the paramedics were in white paper suits. Is this a sign of the virus?

 

[Chippy_boy]

Your question is answered in every paper written about the subject and they are all available for free from the .gov website. Have you not bothered to read any of the scientific evidence which is guiding policy?

Funny you should mention that, but yes, I have.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Sorry for me this will just be a blip.

lockdown will reduce cases, that will then reduce deaths a couple of weeks later. in that order.

Hopefully we will start to see reduction in cases soon.

We are a couple of weeks since the lockdown commenced mate. Hospital deaths tend to be 3 - 4 weeks from contracting the virus so the end of this week and next week are particularly significant. We won't know for a number of days whether today's figures are a blip or not (and figures reported towards the end of a weekend are notoriously unpredictable in the Health Service).

 

[squirtyflower]

ONS do a catch up every Tuesday with each of the previous days figures updated accordingly. After last week, statistical opinion from the Royal Statistical Society seems to be that they will add 10% to the numbers.
We are however counting them. Italy, Spain and to some extent Framce have not counterd them properly for weeks though they should catch up to some degree eventually.

I wonder if there are conspiracy nutters in those three countries posting on a football forum about their governments covering things up?
Lune bleue
Luna blu
Luna azul

 

[Claytop]

North East & Yorkshire seems to be the worst place at the minute for deaths, more than London in the last couple days.