COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Didsbury Dave said:
Nobody can say when a vaccine will be available. There has never been a disease like this so they are starting from scratch. The absolute, most optimistic case would be towards the end of this year. The most pessimistic is that they never make one (like the cold and AIDS).

I suspect they will ease the lockdown slightly in a couple of months and we will go into a cycle where it is eased then implemented. There is no time on the horizon where everything just goes back to normal.
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It's quite possible that we end up having to decide what is a tolerable annual level of covid-19 related deaths without restrictions in the same way we "accept" around 12-15,000 flu-related deaths each year, there's no certainty yet that any vaccine will offer 100% protection or that any acquired immunity will be permanent.

I don't envy the government having to make those decisions.
 
Rammy Blue said:
It’s interesting though as it shows that it has officially been their intention, whereas until now it’s just been guesswork. They only really need worry about Stockholm anyway.
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But herd immunity is the goal for most as a test and trace strategy is simply not possible unless you have an industry capable of delivering it. Only Germany, Korea, the US had the capability. Everybody else is building it up from scratch.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
America and Brazil have practically given up. More European country’s are easing restrictions - regardless of the death toll, it’s only a matter of time before before the world just gives up and goes ‘back to normal’
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Yesterday here in the US ,they were reporting the death rate is 1100 per 10000 but the normal flu is around that.The hot spots like NY are dreadful. Here I notice a 'fuck it enoughs enough' attitude and just avoid social gathering and use common sense.I think the US economy well bounce back very quickly. There is a lot of their 'can do' philosophy on show. A mindset of being less China dependent also .When I watch BBC or SKy its just doom and gloom and who can we blame.
 
lancs blue said:
It's quite possible that we end up having to decide what is a tolerable annual level of covid-19 related deaths without restrictions in the same way we "accept" around 12-15,000 flu-related deaths each year, there's no certainty yet that any vaccine will offer 100% protection or that any acquired immunity will be permanent.

I don't envy the government having to make those decisions.
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As much as the vaccine / immunity playing into the decision making, think treatments will play a bigger part. If the trials on different drugs prove relatively successful then their will be a number of those with more serious other conditions they would accept in the same way we know accept flu or pneumonia will claim some lives every year.
What they can’t accept is fit healthy people overloading the health system and dying.
 
While absolutely awful, isn’t such a drop quite positive? Or will it be another false hope from them catching up on deaths from days ago?
 
nellyonthewing said:
Yesterday here in the US ,they were reporting the death rate is 1100 per 10000 but the normal flu is around that.The hot spots like NY are dreadful. Here I notice a 'fuck it enoughs enough' attitude and just avoid social gathering and use common sense.I think the US economy well bounce back very quickly. There is a lot of their 'can do' philosophy on show. A mindset of being less China dependent also .When I watch BBC or SKy its just doom and gloom and who can we blame.
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I am not having a go at you, as I appreciate your positive mindset and wish you were correct. But by all accounts the death rate is being substantially undercounted here (as it is in the UK and many other places). But that is not even the issue.

The problem is the severe case rate and unconfirmed cases that led to deaths are also being significantly undercounted. And most areas in the US have not yet reached their peak, whilst PPE is actually becoming more scarce for health workers, which many public health experts are predicting will lead to a spike in health worker deaths over the next month (further reducing capacity for treatment). It’s also of course warming in many places here and at home (UK, Spain for me), which will see many more people breaking lockdown and social distancing rules (with conflicting evidence as to whether the higher temperatures will actually slow viral transmission). Several places in Florida reopened beaches on Friday and they were quite literally overflowing yesterday, despite social distancing guidelines (and that’s after a measurable spike in cases that was traced to “spring break” festivities in the state in March).

Also, it is not a economic analysis thread, so I won’t go in to detail, but the damage to the US economy already caused by the virus and the (necessary) response is severe. It is exposing the frailties, inequalities, and outright falsities of the system that existed before the pandemic (though, unfortunately, the virus gives a convenient excuse to say everything was “fine”), just as it is doing at home (our economy is perhaps in an even worse state for various reasons, some touched on in earlier posts). Our and the American economies (and China’s) are not likely to bounce back quickly, unfortunately — nearly all internal and external growth, liquidity, and production forecasts attest to that. And that spells hardship for the rest of the world.

I know some say I am doom monger, but I am really just trying to provide a realistic, evidence-based perspective, in contrast to certain elements in our society that seemingly want to ignore all evidence in favour of the reality they wish to exist, at the extreme detriment of all.

The only way we get through this is by coming together, seeing the world for what it actually is, understanding what has actually happened and is happening, and then making brave decisions to mitigate the issues and support each other.

It is going to get worse before it gets better... but the latter only happens with open eyes, clear minds, and full hearts.
 
SebastianBlue said:
I am not having a go at you, as I appreciate your positive mindset and wish you were correct. But by all accounts the death rate is being substantially undercounted here (as it is in the UK and many other places). But that is not even the issue.

The problem is the severe case rate and unconfirmed cases that led to deaths are also being significantly undercounted. And most areas in the US have not yet reached their peak, whilst PPE is actually becoming more scarce for health workers, which many public health experts are predicting will lead to a spike in health worker deaths over the next month (further reducing capacity for treatment). It’s also of course warming in many places here and at home (UK, Spain for me), which will see many more people breaking lockdown and social distancing rules (with conflicting evidence as to whether the higher temperatures will actually slow viral transmission). Several places in Florida reopened beaches on Friday and they were quite literally overflowing yesterday, despite social distancing guidelines (and that’s after a measurable spike in cases that was traced to “spring break” festivities in the state in March).

Also, it is not a economic analysis thread, so I won’t go in to detail, but the damage to the US economy already caused by the virus and the (necessary) response is severe. It is exposing the frailties, inequalities, and outright falsities of the system that existed before the pandemic (though, unfortunately, the virus gives a convenient excuse to say everything was “fine”), just as it is doing at home (our economy is perhaps in an even worse state for various reasons, some touched on in earlier posts). Our and the American economies (and China’s) are not likely to bounce back quickly, unfortunately — nearly all internal and external growth, liquidity, and production forecasts attest to that. And that spells hardship for the rest of the world.

I know some say I am doom monger, but I am really just trying to provide a realistic, evidence-based perspective, in contrast to certain elements in our society that seemingly want to ignore all evidence in favour of the reality they wish to exist, at the extreme detriment of all.

The only way we get through this is by coming together, seeing the world for what it actually is, understanding what has actually happened and is happening, and then making brave decisions to mitigate the issues and support each other.

It is going to get worse before it gets better... but the latter only happens with open eyes, clear minds, and full hearts.
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Why do you think it is going to get worse before it gets better?
 
BlueAnorak said:
My daughter tells me the biggest help (pre vacine) would be to find a drug or drug combination that can turn off or dampen down the immune system to stop the Cytokine storm that results in the death of most people from this virus. Ironically the bat is one of the few animals that can do this naturally.

A paper on the subject:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102614/#s0010title

Incidently there is a NHS trial for Tocilizumab (TCZ) for use on limiting Cytokine storm, as well as the anti-malrial drugs Chloroquine, and Hydroxychloroquin.
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Not sure about that mate. I am on 40mg of Prednisolone a day. It is a steroid that suppresses the immune system, which is supposed to stop it attacking my bowel. I am being sheltered and in the most vulnerable group because of it.

One thing I have noticed is that a lot of these experts are learning on the go.There are so many conflicting stories and they just don't know the best course of action. Someone will strike lucky soon and a definitive plan will emerge. We just have to hope that its sooner rather than later.
 
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