To be fair they have been saying 12. -18 months for about 2 months now, so we should be at 10- 16 by now. With the world wide drive and co- operation going on and production in parallel with testing I’d expect the lower end is quite possible.Vallance and Fauci say we are 12-18 months away.
B
Better tell Oxford University to stop the human trials and stand down AstroZenica then mate. Silly buggers wasting all that effort.
I suspect it will go to 60+ year olds who are still economically active.Should immediately go to the most vulnerable (over a certain age/comorbidities) and key workers. Key workers have totally earned a right to be first in the queue.
I’d read her medical officer sits in. It does make sense if the three countries with devolved government attend tbf. I still believe she is doing an excellent job in Scotland. Treats us like grown ups and doesn’t sugar coat it.I think she attends them , that’s when she does her briefing after . I think the uk has a combined approach and I think it’s right she attends on Covid , I will ask dr google .
If the trials go well, and Astra Zeneca start manufacture in June, what sort of capability do they have?For the general population, probably.
If vaccines work, some vaccine will become available around Christmas. Who they give it too will be a huge debating point.
Good post. I guess I am trying to look at this as an optimist. The article does agree that a 12/18 month timescale is difficult but credible. My hope is that something will be ready in the new year for those most at risk. Then the spring for some volume. Until then we need to do our best to keep ourselves alive and protect others so social distancing will be the norm until then. Hopefully between the vaccine and the existing drug that Gilead are testing we will be a great deal safer by this time next year.Posted this recently but the problem with the Oxford announcement is that is has provided unrealistic targets for the general public and slightly misleading in terms of using the phrase 'a vaccine will be ready by...' . We possibly will get a vaccine (hopefully one that ticks all boxes) at some stage but not in any meaningful time frame that helps us look at a government/global policy in the next two years at least. The problem is if hope for a vaccine becomes the only strategy we are pursuing whilst running traffic light systems on infection rates for lockdown/loosening then we are screwed as its simply not sustainable beyond a six month period for obvious reasons.
Anti virals have to be the first line of focus and all our energy and we are going to be looking at possibly a cocktail of these drugs. History of the HIV anti viral development took us decades to get to a single silver bullet option to make the virus non detectable after using various combinations previously. I am hopeful in this sector but again time is the enemy, so I suspect we are tip toeing into Herd Immunity at different speeds around the world with the hope we get our frontlines primed and our testing systems coordinated to reduce the mortality rate whilst crawling our way to the 80% figure (again assuming that's the figure with our fingers crossed on the level of protectiveness and durability our antibodies will give us)
Link to Oxford trials on vaccine time lines etc which is a good read and just one article of many but is reflective of the general consensus in the scientific community on this topic.
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...ong-time-before-we-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine/
Just one extract:-
That in itself would be a remarkable achievement. The 2013 study found that between 1998 and 2009, the average time taken to develop a vaccine was 10.7 years. It is possible to speed this up to some extent – since then, an Ebola vaccine has become the fastest-developed vaccine ever, being produced in just five years.
His mum died in a care home a few days after being discharged from hospital after being tested there as negative for the virus.What did he say? My bosses mum died from it in a care home a couple of weeks ago
That raises another point about clinical trials, presumably they will also need to test the effects of injecting both vaccines within close succession to see if there are any unforeseen side effects.If the trials go well, and Astra Zeneca start manufacture in June, what sort of capability do they have?
I know we usually find out in the spring what flu vaccine to make and have about 25 mill doses by autumn but don’t know who or how many companies make that. I suppose the work could be licensed out. On the other hand they will still have to be making all the other drugs they make normally , as well as next years flu vaccine.
Think 25 million will be the first target and give it to all those on the flu vaccine list.
I suspect it will go to 60+ year olds who are still economically active.
I know exactly why we are in lockdown, however what happens in winter do we go back into it as winter flu hits as well. What the scientist was saying was no matter what you do the virus is still there, we cannot be in lockdown forever so at some point to you have to just get on with and accept the deaths that come, or do we just keep cycling lockdown until there is a cure, which might never come?It's never been about stopping people dying, the whole point of this lockdown is to spread the extremely terrible death toll out over a more manageable period of time.
We've had social distancing in place in the UK now for several months and are currently at 26,000 deaths. If there had not been measures put in place, I think it's safe to say we would be a lot higher than that, is that really acceptable or something we want?
I know exactly why we are in lockdown, however what happens in winter do we go back into it as winter flu hits as well. What the scientist was saying was no matter what you do the virus is still there, we cannot be in lockdown forever so at some point to you have to just get on with and accept the deaths that come, or do we just keep cycling lockdown until there is a cure, which might never come?
She’s really getting on my tits with her pathetic desperation to make herself relevant.
Totally agree with all of that.Posted this recently but the problem with the Oxford announcement is that is has provided unrealistic targets for the general public and slightly misleading in terms of using the phrase 'a vaccine will be ready by...' . We possibly will get a vaccine (hopefully one that ticks all boxes) at some stage but not in any meaningful time frame that helps us look at a government/global policy in the next two years at least. The problem is if hope for a vaccine becomes the only strategy we are pursuing whilst running traffic light systems on infection rates for lockdown/loosening then we are screwed as its simply not sustainable beyond a six month period for obvious reasons.
Anti virals have to be the first line of focus and all our energy and we are going to be looking at possibly a cocktail of these drugs. History of the HIV anti viral development took us decades to get to a single silver bullet option to make the virus non detectable after using various combinations previously. I am hopeful in this sector but again time is the enemy, so I suspect we are tip toeing into Herd Immunity at different speeds around the world with the hope we get our frontlines primed and our testing systems coordinated to reduce the mortality rate whilst crawling our way to the 80% figure (again assuming that's the figure with our fingers crossed on the level of protectiveness and durability our antibodies will give us)
Link to Oxford trials on vaccine time lines etc which is a good read and just one article of many but is reflective of the general consensus in the scientific community on this topic.
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...ong-time-before-we-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine/
Just one extract:-
That in itself would be a remarkable achievement. The 2013 study found that between 1998 and 2009, the average time taken to develop a vaccine was 10.7 years. It is possible to speed this up to some extent – since then, an Ebola vaccine has become the fastest-developed vaccine ever, being produced in just five years.
enoughShe’s really getting on my tits with her pathetic desperation to make herself relevant.
Or is it just greater testing?Must admit I'm getting a bit deflated with the recent daily reports/stats from North of the border. Sure its a far better position than we were in a few weeks ago but the infection rate seems to be lingering round about the 300 mark per day and has done for a while. I'd have hoped they would be gradually dropping but consistently so which isn't the case, seems to have stagnated.
Could the infections being somewhat more contained in the community but rife within care homes be causing it?
Same as the UK as a whole the more testing we do the more positive we’ll find I think in the briefing yesterday the cmo pointed out positives were down form over 30% to about 20% of those tested in the community. Care homes are a separate problem,and now a bigger problem, but as far as the general community goes the important figure are the hospital cases are down from over 2000 to 1748, and more encouraging ICU cases down from over 200 to 109 today.Must admit I'm getting a bit deflated with the recent daily reports/stats from North of the border. Sure its a far better position than we were in a few weeks ago but the infection rate seems to be lingering round about the 300 mark per day and has done for a while. I'd have hoped they would be gradually dropping but consistently so which isn't the case, seems to have stagnated.
Could the infections being somewhat more contained in the community but rife within care homes be causing it?
Good post. I guess I am trying to look at this as an optimist. The article does agree that a 12/18 month timescale is difficult but credible. My hope is that something will be ready in the new year for those most at risk. Then the spring for some volume. Until then we need to do our best to keep ourselves alive and protect others so social distancing will be the norm until then. Hopefully between the vaccine and the existing drug that Gilead are testing we will be a great deal safer by this time next year.