COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Coatigan]

Indeed. Imagine if the lockdown has proved to be for no gain, which will only become apparent when the all cause mortality and the excess deaths come out for the year. I do know that deaths from ischemic heart disease is down by 30% over the last month. Now, either there has been a miracle or many of those deaths have been incorrectly ascribed to C-19. There is also still a big gap between out of hospital deaths that mention C-19 on the death certificate, which implies that there are many other things in play here and that many deaths at home and indeed in care homes may well be down to people not seeking treatment for other things as well as this virus.

Even if that is the case, which it may well end up being interpreted down the line, i'd still argue it was the right thing to attempt, the intention was to slow down spread, take the pressure of the nhs, and ultimately save lives that could be saved. Don't think anyone can have any issue with that as an intention and effort. And i have always acknowledged that it is a balance and long term effect on the economy, morale and society needs juggled with it all.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Experience is what we call our mistakes and Prof Ferguson is clearly very experienced. That's a good thing scientifically (if not politically) by the way. Genuine scientific hypotheses are testable - that's because we can measurably know if they are right or wrong. We'll see in due course whether SAGE's advice was good or not - in the meantime probably best not to recycle pathetic left wing hatchet jobs done on anybody linked to the goverment.

Are you sure you don’t want to just live under authoritarian regime, where we must not deviate from what they tell us?
By the way, the pathetic left wing hatchet job was mostly taken from that communist rag, The Spectator.
They were commenting on Radio 4 interviewing Ferguson and then Hancock. Ferguson was interviewed with awed tones, difference and not questioned once about whether his modelling might be flawed, whether it was based on a flu pandemic (it was) and whether that was appropriate or not. Also, why his estimates are often hugely incorrect and how quick he could change the model to reflect changes in circumstances. They treated everything he said as if he said ‘city play in sky blue’. No challenge whatsoever. Equally, Hancock came on and was exposed to both barrels from start to finish.
Finally, in your seemingly desperate rush to defend all things Tory government related, wouldn’t the exact opposite of your ascertain be true? The right wing would be the ones questioning the research, whilst the lefties would be all over it, craving the opportunity for population control they apparently crave?

 

[SilverFox2]

Not at all. I don't want anyone to die, old or young. My thoughts are how do we move forward in an amicable way and what the hell am I going to do my my industry is dead for the foreseeable.

If aviation is your industry sector the outlook is as you say.
Your previously posted on BM 2018 video by a an American Professor specialising in Coronavirus was certainly prophetic and actually mentioned the probable outcome for your industry.
All sectors of business are affected and those that have not been will have difficulty adjusting to variations in disruption of their customers and obviously suppliers.
Very few will hit the ground running and some may never return in their previous role..

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

It would appear that the ventilator crisis was not correct because most of the patients were too frail to be put on a ventilator. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...al-ball-gazing-covid-19-has-left-nightingale/

And yet, according to Mr Hancock, we’re still buying 1500 a week! It’s the lack of joined up thinking I oppose the most, although to question anything the establishment do, makes me a ‘left-wing nut-job’, apparently.

 

[mcfc1632]

So where do the responsibilities for the preparation,maintenance and governance of the UK Pandemic plan lie?

Responsibility in the main resides with:

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-health-and-social-care/about

In particular through its framework with:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ework_agreement_between_DHSC_and_PHE_2018.pdf

Which results in informing the management:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/about/board/members/

to deliver its:

https://www.longtermplan.nhs.uk/

I personally think that it is really disappointing that some people's (hopefully only a few and certainly not aimed at you) need to apportion blame becomes their primary focus.

I guess if people simply must identify individuals to blame then you will find some on this organogram:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ata/file/827548/PHE_Leadership_organogram.pdf

Afterall they have amongst their remit the responsibility to:

"...….. This means providing the national infrastructure for health protection including: an integrated surveillance system; providing specialist services, such as diagnostic and reference microbiology; developing, translating and exploiting public health science, including developing the application of genomic technologies; investigation and management of outbreaks of infectious diseases and environmental hazards; ensuring effective emergency preparedness, resilience and response for health emergencies, including global health security and work on antimicrobial resistance; acting as the focal point for the UK on the International Health Regulations; and evaluating the effectiveness of the immunisation programme and procuring and supplying vaccines...."

and:

".....Improve population health supporting sustainable health and care services through, for example: promoting the evidence on public health interventions and analysing future demand to help shape future services; working with NHS England on effective preventative strategies...……"

Personally I am in the camp that does not need to vent (or invent) frustrations to try and drag people down. I think that this is simply a global emergency and when such a thing occurs it will always be possible to use the convenience of hindsight to apportion blame - if you are so minded

I have answered your question here - because this is where it was asked - but I would suggest that any further discussion occurs in the Covid political thread - which I have still not gone through to catch-up on the 3 weeks of absence.

 

[BlueAnorak]

God news & bad news.
Non ICU staff have been sent back to normal duties in my daughters hospital. (Down to 25 COVID-19 patients).
The bad news is that wards in other parts of the hospital are empty. Where are the people who should be in hospital? From the excess non COVID-19 death statistics, dying at home without going to hospital would seem to be the answer. I think there needs to be an advertising campaign to snap the public out of the protect the NHS mantra.

 

[Coatigan]

If the upwards shift of daily deaths was something like 10% then it wouldn’t be an issue, a blip if you will. But to have 100% increase on a continuing basis...
As the article says, not all the excess deaths will be directly attributable to Covid, some of them will be indirectly related (not visiting A&E, operations cancelled etc), but it’s not even a statistical blip, it’s a real trend

Has anyone claimed it to be 100%, daily, continuously, or otherwise? the figures i have seen range between an increase of 2-3% higher than corredponding quarters. Which, don't get me wrong, im not trying to diminish the impact of, is still terrible, any increase in death however small is. But it isnt as extreme and the proportionality of the extremity of the measures and impact is a valid question to consider. It is a balance, and i give the country credit for recognising that and the difficulty in walking that fine tight line.

 

[Fame Monster]

But his model was only C-19 deaths. Interestingly, the excess deaths at home and in care homes is about 50/50 male and female, which is atypical of C-19, which affects men much more. It suggests that many of the female excess deaths are non C-19, which warrants further investigation.

True but even if half of the excess deaths that haven't been attributed to COVID-19 are COVID related, that's still around 40,000 deaths. That's still likely well on track - two months into the crisis, and even more so had stricter measures not been introduced, to the 250,000 deaths he initially estimated. You've already mentioned he adjusted his model and predicted 20,000 deaths on the basis of the specific interventions the UK Gov't took, which has turned out to be a huge underestimate. I think we can agree that the modelling is hugely speculative but I've not seen anything to suggest that the initial modelling was an overestimate.

 

[grunge]

Is it time to relook at this lockdown and think about just ending it? I ask this because there does seem to be a collective madness overcoming us and blithe acceptance of government statements, not to mention the unending damage we are doing to the economy.
If life is going to be about everyone being much poorer, not speaking to anyone when going out, covering your face so you can’t see anyone anyway, not touching anyone, not going to the pub, sitting in straight lines in restaurants, having every other seat empty in cinemas, or the theatre, not going on holiday and having no sport whilst telling anyone over 70 or people with comorbidities that the only way to ‘live’ is to stay in and not see anyone, then I’m not convinced we are ‘doing the right thing’.

The ‘Ferguson model’, which panicked Trump and Johnson so much, was reused by Uppsala University to highlight the risk to Sweden. It predicted if Sweden ‘did nothing’, by May 1st, there’d be 80000 dead. If they just maintained voluntary social distancing, that number would be 40000. They did the latter and, as of May 1st they’ve had 2700 deaths.

I found this transport usage map interesting, which certainly suggests that people were doing the right thing as soon as social distancing was encouraged and the lockdown didn’t increase the pace of that, at all.

Sweden is an interesting one really. When you look apply some of the other data that may have been missed off the modelling.

sweden has a very sparse population, approximately 25 per square Km, compared to 270 odd for uk and 400+ for England. That is a natural social distancing the UK can’t do.

they have a very introverted nature. Touching is generally not a done thing in public so again a natural social distancing.

add onto that the fact that a lot are self isolating anyways.

one thing I heard that I have not had verified tho is the sweeds tend to leave the nest young. So you don’t have older generation being infected by the younger who are still out and about.

 

[SilverFox2]

God news & bad news.
Non ICU staff have been sent back to normal duties in my daughters hospital. (Down to 25 COVID-19 patients).
The bad news is that wards in other parts of the hospital are empty. Where are the people who should be in hospital? From the excess non COVID-19 death statistics, dying at home without going to hospital would seem to be the answer. I think there needs to be an advertising campaign to snap the public out of the protect the NHS mantra.

If the NHS has been disrupted to simply have no customers for its variable in house care imagine the disruption in other sectors of business.
The road back to normality may be difficult but if the NHS is an example it can change quickly so the old fashioned resistance to change in a changing world may actually change and bring out the best of British innovation and lead the way forward.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

God news & bad news.
Non ICU staff have been sent back to normal duties in my daughters hospital. (Down to 25 COVID-19 patients).
The bad news is that wards in other parts of the hospital are empty. Where are the people who should be in hospital? From the excess non COVID-19 death statistics, dying at home without going to hospital would seem to be the answer. I think there needs to be an advertising campaign to snap the public out of the protect the NHS mantra.

Don't want this to come across wrong, of course anyone who needs NHS help should get it, but if we can create a culture where far fewer people waste everyone's time clogging up A&E with things a GP or Out of Hours can sort, the better. We need to re-establish walk-ins during this time and try and correct what in the past 2 decades has been a needless crushing of our A&E departments.

Shame we don't have a government that can spot opportunities like this in the "downtime", before everyone goes back out partying again and cramming our essential services up.

 

[Coatigan]

Council's had a c40% decrease in funding from central government plus they had to take on extra liabilities. For example, council tax support, which was previously paid for by central government, is now paid for by councils. In respect of my local council, that is a £32m pa liability. There are many other ways in which local government finances have been adversely impacted since then.

Most sectors have suffered, undoubtedly. I just happen to know more about local government, so I thought I would give an indication of how councils have felt the impact of austerity. Ultimately, this has a disproportionate impact on the old and the vulnerable.

That might be the case in some places. My experience is very different. And therefore my opinion on that stance. Probably a broader discussion, for another time.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

This is considerably worse because until there is immunity anyone traveling internationally is going to have to isolate on arrival both ways. So no one is going on a 1 or 2 week international holiday any time soon. As I said the other day the CEO of Lufthansa group believes it will be 2023 before airlines will be able to operate profitably and that will be at much smaller scales.

Spot on...a lot of people just looking at this through the eyes of the UK’s policy and not that of the host country they wish to visit. Another issue may be travel insurance for CV19 being an issue, can’t see governments running with more airlifts for stranded passengers if the host country has a serious outbreak and runs an immediate lockdown. Suspect the aviation stocks are in for a further hammering on Monday after Warren Buffets comments this weekend and he’s dumping his entire sizable stock holdings of the 4 major US carriers, doesn’t bode well as you say for the sector, but hope you can hang in some capacity in the industry.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Thanks for the reference but i was asking his opinion and perhaps anyone else on the matter.
Not sure the video is his opinion on the question I asked.

Apologies. Thought you were more talking about the science behind the thoughts which seemed to fit with the video that Gelson had previously posted.

 

[George Hannah]

Are you sure you don’t want to just live under authoritarian regime, where we must not deviate from what they tell us?
By the way, the pathetic left wing hatchet job was mostly taken from that communist rag, The Spectator.

Unlike many supporters of repressive regimes on here I am committed to an open society. Its enemies btw include several Spectactor contributors - who occupy the right/left point of totalitarian intersection in classic (if currently unfashionable) horseshoe fashion. If you find succour in the absurd and unfalsifiable theories churned out by Momentum etc I suppose that explains why you keep recycling their ordure .

 

[mcfc1632]

I'm not putting the buck at anyones feet. I just want to know factually who does what. Whilst the individual governments may well be responsible for oversight and government, they are almost certainly not for the detailed production of plans.

The only real difference in Scotland is that the daily press sessions have been better handled and Sturgeon is more believable in terms of empathy and compassion. Other than that I agree with you. Its worth noting though that when you break the UK curve down into areas of England and the three other countries, there are very different experiences.

That makes sense - if people were minded to they could place every piece of bad news at the feet of the PM or appropriate SoS - because eventually they are 'accountable' for everything delivered through public services.

The reality is that there are departments/agencies/delivery bodies - like in this case the DHSC, PHE and NHS who have the clear responsibility between them for the entire scope of strategies, planning and preparation, implementation and delivery of all the aspects that have been the focus of criticism on these threads.

We should all simply recognise that - it is a simple fact - no matter which party or coalition had won the December election

 

[BlueAnorak]

Don't want this to come across wrong, of course anyone who needs NHS help should get it, but if we can create a culture where far fewer people waste everyone's time clogging up A&E with things a GP or Out of Hours can sort, the better. We need to re-establish walk-ins during this time and try and correct what in the past 2 decades has been a needless crushing of our A&E departments.

Shame we don't have a government that can spot opportunities like this in the "downtime", before everyone goes back out partying again and cramming our essential services up.

I know what you mean. A good point.

 

[Newman Noggs]

Unlike many supporters of repressive regimes on here I am committed to an open society. Its enemies btw include several Spectactor contributors - who occupy the right/left point of totalitarian intersection in classic (if currently unfashionable) horseshoe fashion. If you find succour in the absurd and unfalsifiable theories churned out by Momentum etc I suppose that explains why you keep recycling their ordure .

Agree with a lot of what you say George but that is unmitigated bollocks. I read the Spectator specifically because it gives a platform to alternative viewpoints without the vitriol which would accompany dissenting views in social media. It helps to keep an open mind.

 

[twosips]

God news & bad news.
Non ICU staff have been sent back to normal duties in my daughters hospital. (Down to 25 COVID-19 patients).
The bad news is that wards in other parts of the hospital are empty. Where are the people who should be in hospital? From the excess non COVID-19 death statistics, dying at home without going to hospital would seem to be the answer. I think there needs to be an advertising campaign to snap the public out of the protect the NHS mantra.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that all covid patients should be moved to the Nightingale hospitals where possible. Not sure if they're going to do that or not, but it makes perfect sense to get hospitals free of it, reducing the risk of very ill non-covid patients being infected, plus increasing public confidence in actually going to hospitals again.

Ideally too, antibody tests could show which members of NHS staff have had it and have recovered already, with sufficient antibodies to presume a good level of immunity - presuming that many probably already have. If so they could work at the Nightingale hospitals too, with good confidence that they'll be fine, while protecting other members of staff who haven't had it yet.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Track, test and trace being tested in the Isle of Wight this week prior to national roll out next week.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...-cases-tests-lockdown-latest-covid-19-deaths/