COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[urban genie]

 

[somapop]

I've posted links from this virologist guy on twitter before (and posted this on the positive thread...as I've not been on this one too much).
There's an ace break down of testing (how it works and how you can get false positives and false negatives - really fascinating). Highly recommend a follow (and mostly turns out positive news).

This link refers to the mutation of SARS2:

 

[somapop]

This is the testing discussion I mentioned (may have posted this before) - really well explained:

 

[BlueAnorak]

I will stop repeating myself now but your links don't bear out what you say,it is wrong to tell people they are certainly immune and for how long to a new virus when the world's experts will not commit yet, and there is not a test anywhere that is specific enough or cleared for use in individuals ,to base care on,prof whitty said that this week,everyone needs to wait and stick to the rules until such time that your dr is told he can look you in the eye and say you are immune and for how long ,your links explain the variations in antibodies,weak,strong and what protection they give you as an individual,it is being studied by every scientist and none have yet nailed their colours to the mast

From your links,pretty much all of them

At this point, scientists can’t say for sure what level of antibodies might be required for a person to be protected from a second Covid-19 case. They also can’t say how long people are safeguarded

We will just have to agree to disagree.
It's pretty much a given that anyone will have 4-6 months immunity if they produced sufficient antibodies to fight a virus especially as the related viruses SARS and MERS are proven to do so.
It's after that time that there may be issues.

 

[BosnianBlue]

Why do you think the Balkan countries seem to have seemed to have done ok in this crisis. I believe Montenegro is opening bars and restaurants on MAy 18th??

We closed schools and businesses pretty early and stopped kids and over-65 going out completely. Borders were closed very early too. There were barely any confirmed cases when all that is done.

We don't have a tradition of care homes too, old people live either alone at homes or with their kids. It's pretty much a social shame if you send your parents to care home here.

Another one might be that we're not really travel hubs so we didn't have lot of people from outside coming in infected. It helped that outbreak happened just before Easter holidays as that is the time when lot of people living abroad come for week or two. If they managed to come, it would be lot worse.

Montenegro was last country in Europe to register confirmed case. And I think they started with restrictions before that first confirmed case.

We're opening all shops at May 1st too, but some recent moves by governments don't look too planned. It's more some ad hoc decisions, following what others in Europe do and not what is actually going on. Today was the worse day we had so far with number of confirmed cases. There were few days when it looked it's slowly going away, but suddenly it jumped. It's still very small numbers compared to other countries though.

Anyway, those early moves helped a lot. If some bigger outbreak happened, we'd be on the knees considering the state of our health system and country in general. We're too decentralized and there are too many decision levels, many of whom hate each other and are not happy to cooperate.

 

[kaz7]

Watching the key researcher into remdesivir,it is for patients in hospital with covid ,moderate to severe,pneumonia,high risk of death

It is not prevention or for public health,he stresses

However it is a great first tool in the box and just the start

Dr Andre Kalil

Key investigator ,university of Nebraska medical centre,rendezvous trial

CNN

 

[mcfc1632]

Easy tiger. You are simply getting annoyed because I am pointing out the truth. I did ask you to get involved three weeks ago to describe roles and responsibilities between government and health service as a recurring theme on this thread is misunderstanding of them. You agreed. Nothing posted. Then you said you would put your views in a dm to me. Nothing. And here you are tonight pulling people up that they don’t understand these responsibilities. Well forgive me for pointing out what you are doing. You are not interested in debate, just massaging your own ego. And the next time you bemoan the lack of debate on these threads, just think on mate.

Easy tiger yourself - Sorry - you don't get to tell me how to spend my personal time.

Due to the politicking I lost interest in engaging with the threads and found my self busy for 3 weeks enjoying the weather and not much interested in sitting indoors on a laptop. No coincidence that getting engaged again occurred when the rain arrived.​

You asked me to post rather than PM you - and I just have started a process of explanation as you requested - so why are you moaning?

And frankly, pointing out where accountabilities and responsibilities reside should have been a straight-forward matter for people to determine - but a lot on here have little interest other than to gratuitously use the disaster for the purpose of political point-scoring

Anyway - that is mainly for the other thread - to help:

Who is responsible for NHS procurement?
Responsibility for procurement is split between several organisations:

• DHSC is ultimately responsible for setting the budget and top-line objectives of the NHS but keeps out of its day-to-day operations. In relation to pandemics it determines what is included in the national pandemic stockpile.[8]
• NHS England, which is legally independent of DHSC, oversees the commissioning of NHS services and sets strategy.
• Public Health England, an executive agency of DHSC, is responsible for dealing with public health emergencies. It issues guidance on who should wear PPE, jointly with DSHC and other bodies, and maintains the national pandemic stockpile.

https://nhsprocurement.org.uk/nhs-procurement/

Also, as the responsibility for the commissioning of care homes and the setting of standards has become a hot topic - I suggest that people google the role of the Clinical Commissioning Groups and the Care Quality Commission

 

[mcfc1632]

I haven’t confused anything. I have just provided factual information to try to help a bit. The linked page sets out what the Minister is “responsible” for from a policy perspective.

Btw I worked in the Department of Health for 15 years and I briefed Ministers often.

I explained in my post that SoS and ministers are of course accountable - but I also explained the role of DH (previously) and DHSC and the NHS Board for the management responsibility to give effect to the implementation of policy and the management of provision.

I accept that your experience would position you to understand this - but others on here have clearly not understood where accountability and responsibility for delivery reside - or the difference. There has been a lot of confusion - sorry I accept not by you - and some post as if Hancock and Johnson are involved in the detail of every single decision of provision on a daily basis. Of course 'accountability' eventually resides with them - but I was seeking to help with the understanding of how things are 'managed'.

 

[Blue Maverick]

I saw an Australian tv interview with a Swedish scientist and I have to say he is right, unfortunately we are just going to have to accept the deaths, 90-95% will get this without symptoms or very mild and recover, of the others then yes they will suffer and unfortunately a few will die. The thing is without a cure or whatever the world is just going to have to get on with it, we cannot go into lockdown forever. My elderly parents are not going to stay locked up for years, my daughter can’t home school for years, it’s not going to happen.
We will just have to change the way we shop, socialise and generally move around outside, it will slowly become the norm.

 

[PragueBlue]

I saw an Australian tv interview with a Swedish scientist and I have to say he is right, unfortunately we are just going to have to accept the deaths, 90-95% will get this without symptoms or very mild and recover, of the others then yes they will suffer and unfortunately a few will die. The thing is without a cure or whatever the world is just going to have to get on with it, we cannot go into lockdown forever. My elderly parents are not going to stay locked up for years, my daughter can’t home school for years, it’s not going to happen.
We will just have to change the way we shop, socialise and generally move around outside, it will slowly become the norm.

I think you're probably right, though it would certainly be more than a few deaths.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

 

[Saddleworth2]

Easy tiger yourself - Sorry - you don't get to tell me how to spend my personal time.

Due to the politicking I lost interest in engaging with the threads and found my self busy for 3 weeks enjoying the weather and not much interested in sitting indoors on a laptop. No coincidence that getting engaged again occurred when the rain arrived.​

You asked me to post rather than PM you - and I just have started a process of explanation as you requested - so why are you moaning?

And frankly, pointing out where accountabilities and responsibilities reside should have been a straight-forward matter for people to determine - but a lot on here have little interest other than to gratuitously use the disaster for the purpose of political point-scoring

Anyway - that is mainly for the other thread - to help:

Who is responsible for NHS procurement?
Responsibility for procurement is split between several organisations:

• DHSC is ultimately responsible for setting the budget and top-line objectives of the NHS but keeps out of its day-to-day operations. In relation to pandemics it determines what is included in the national pandemic stockpile.[8]
• NHS England, which is legally independent of DHSC, oversees the commissioning of NHS services and sets strategy.
• Public Health England, an executive agency of DHSC, is responsible for dealing with public health emergencies. It issues guidance on who should wear PPE, jointly with DSHC and other bodies, and maintains the national pandemic stockpile.

https://nhsprocurement.org.uk/nhs-procurement/

Also, as the responsibility for the commissioning of care homes and the setting of standards has become a hot topic - I suggest that people google the role of the Clinical Commissioning Groups and the Care Quality Commission

So where do the responsibilities for the preparation,maintenance and governance of the UK Pandemic plan lie?

 

[Chippy_boy]

@Chippy_boy I hope you didn't sell the Gilead shares you bought when the "fake" Chinese trial results came out.
The US trials are showing a clear positive clinical impact for remdesivir. Not a magic bullet but a great help.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52478783

The 2nd piece of Good news today (after the approval of the antibody test).

You're mixing me up with @SWP's back perhaps? I didn't buy any.

 

[Chippy_boy]

what about people who are no longer infected?

Yes we need the count them as well. (Assuming they are no longer at risk of dying from it. Which is not s given, but fairly likely).

 

[SWP's back]

@Chippy_boy I hope you didn't sell the Gilead shares you bought when the "fake" Chinese trial results came out.
The US trials are showing a clear positive clinical impact for remdesivir. Not a magic bullet but a great help.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52478783

The 2nd piece of Good news today (after the approval of the antibody test).

No I've still got them, I'd read the trials were stopped due to lack of poorly people.

Gilead were up nearly 6% on the day yesterday. Gilead's at $83.14 and I bought at $76.54 with a 2x leverage. Futures market suggesting they'll open up at $85.04 today.

Exciting times. Still expect to lose a ton in the end.

 

[blueinsa]

I saw an Australian tv interview with a Swedish scientist and I have to say he is right, unfortunately we are just going to have to accept the deaths, 90-95% will get this without symptoms or very mild and recover, of the others then yes they will suffer and unfortunately a few will die. The thing is without a cure or whatever the world is just going to have to get on with it, we cannot go into lockdown forever. My elderly parents are not going to stay locked up for years, my daughter can’t home school for years, it’s not going to happen.
We will just have to change the way we shop, socialise and generally move around outside, it will slowly become the norm.

I fear you are right.

You cant cure every virus or disease and sadly, people will die.

The sudden demand for politicians to be able to is fanciful and based on nothing!

Only science will do it and science is telling us we are years away at best if ever.

 

[blueinsa]

So where do the responsibilities for the preparation,maintenance and governance of the UK Pandemic plan lie?

Given devolution id say plenty with individual parliaments mate.

Right now i see no different a picture here in Scotland than i do elsewhere in the UK.

The SNP are in charge of our NHS and our Care Homes and our PPE and the exact same issues and numbers passing away as a percentage of population is sadly happening.

The buck cant be put at Westminster's feet every time its bad.

 

[Chippy_boy]

i would love to get to tenerife in november but quite honestly cant see it, distance alone is going to have a massive impact with planes, Ryanir have said if they have to leave middle seats empty they will not operate so due to that fact alone if they did get started the costs would hit the roof because of the Ryanair competition not existing,November 21 is more realistic

On a related note, the suggestion of leaving the middle seat empty, is a joke anyway isn't it. What about the bloke in the seat behind you coughing away? They are far closer than 2m.

To be even vaguely sensible they would need to keep every 2nd row free:

Person - Empty - Person
Empty - Empty - Empty
Person - Empty - Person
Empty - Empty - Empty

Etc

I.e. flying at 33% occupancy. I can't see that ever being profitable nor operated by any airline.

 

[shemnel]

On a related note, the suggestion of leaving the middle seat empty, is a joke anyway isn't it. What about the bloke in the seat behind you coughing away? They are far closer than 2m.

To be even vaguely sensible they would need to keep every 2nd row free:

Person - Empty - Person
Empty - Empty - Empty
Person - Empty - Person
Empty - Empty - Empty

Etc

I.e. flying at 16% occupancy. I can't see that ever being profitable nor operated by any airline.

i think RyanAir said they'd do it if the government paid for every empty seat

 

[ganganvince]

On a related note, the suggestion of leaving the middle seat empty, is a joke anyway isn't it. What about the bloke in the seat behind you coughing away? They are far closer than 2m.

To be even vaguely sensible they would need to keep every 2nd row free:

Person - Empty - Person
Empty - Empty - Empty
Person - Empty - Person
Empty - Empty - Empty

Etc

I.e. flying at 16% occupancy. I can't see that ever being profitable nor operated by any airline.

Airlines will probably struggle till reliable vaccines and antibody tests are available with passengers requiring a certificate.