COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Eds said:
This is not true. The Uk reports each day all deaths reported in the last 24 hours in all settings. Some of the deaths today happened in April and I think one in March. Spain for example used to report like that but now only report deaths that only occurred in the last 24 hours. That’s how they went from 280 deaths to zero overnight. Whoever is putting this info out there is talking complete and utter bollocks. It’s 100% fake news
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And yet here you are, talking complete bollocks about Spain. They didn't just go from 280 to 0 overnight. They have been gradually declining since their peak on Apr 2nd. Since then they had a couple of abnormal results as catch ups - like most countries have done. One of those was the 280 that you talk about but you haven't even been arsed to see what went before or after that to see if you're chatting 'Fake News'.

Spain has changed the way it's announcing its figures. Daily they announce the deaths of the last 24 hours and then once a week they announce a catch up. They've also announced an excess of 12,000 deaths since the start of it all which hasn't been added to the total.

What I find hilarious though are the Brits that go on about all the other countries fudging numbers. As if this government can be trusted. The excess deaths is estimated to be over 60,000 now in the UK whilst two weeks ago they had a week of deaths in the 100's, got everyone excited then added another nearly 500 deaths to the total without announcing it.
 
I’d be interested to see the source for this week of deaths in the 100’s, bar the usual weekend lag I’ve not seen anything of the sort.

Also it is a very strange move from Spain, headline figures of 0 deaths (when not true) will get more attention than a weekly bumping up of the numbers, assuming they actually add them.
 
Claytop said:
I’d be interested to see the source for this week of deaths in the 100’s, bar the usual weekend lag I’ve not seen anything of the sort.

Also it is a very strange move from Spain, headline figures of 0 deaths (when not true) will get more attention than a weekly bumping up of the numbers, assuming they actually add them.
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From 25th May in the following 8 days they announced 4 days of over 100 and one day of 225. Then on the 1st of June they added another 445 catch up deaths.

I have no doubt that all countries have fudged numbers to one degree or another, either mistakenly or on purpose.
The only thing I know for an absolute fact is that the hospital in Valencia where my mate works only has a handful of covid patients left and all the hospital staff have been told to take their holidays before September in case there's a second wave then.
 
i8rags said:
Not by date of death, fuck me does anyone look into detail
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It seems pointless to try as Gelson's Dad maybe has with his graph.

Earlier today I posted the figures. Yes, the care home add on today were higher than earlier this week Or than I hoped. But that may even out over the weekend when these get reported less. We may even go below 100 reported England hospital deaths on the day this weekend. Possibly even UK wide given the usual drop on Sunday and Monday reporting

But the truth is clear in the figures. Many of the daily total add cases that are days, weeks, even months old collated slowly. And those for recent deaths has slowed meaning even after 5 days to add on cases (the band in Gelsons graph) we now have had three successive sub 100 days.

That is a milestone everyone has missed without that graph to show it. But compare it with the 5 day total on 8 April in England hospitals only which reached 737. We went below 600 after 5 day add ons on April 16. Below 500 on April 21. Below 400 on April 25. Below 300 on April 29. Below 200 on May 8. And below 100 for the first time on May 29.

All these were the last days the higher levels were recorded.

For weeks deaths have been falling not rising. Just unevenly and slowly, party because the care home figures take time to gather whereas hospital deaths are usually quicker.

If you look at the figures for deaths in England in Gelson's graph and that I have been reporting in his absence the true picture outside the care homes is clear. And the data on care homes says we are belatedly getting that under control too.

The last time even 50 + deaths were recorded on the day in all England hospitals was May 7.

The last time 40 + deaths were on the day was May 20.

The last time 30 deaths + were on the day was May 28.

The last full weeks totals of on the day in England hospital deaths recorded are in order 20, 15, 13, 19, 20, 24, 19

The trend there goes up to yesterday and is clearly in one direction. Just slow and slightly up and down.

Most announced deaths are from previous days not the day they get ascribed to by most simple reporting.

We had another added today from way back on April 8 - our worst day when near on 900 people died in England hospitals alone.

If you look at the figures the trend is all down not up. Just a slow grind.

Getting to grips with our care home problem too late and too slow will be what emerges as the big scandal here and why we are so much higher than we could have been.
 
Of course the plateau now we are near the bottom is a little concerning. And if the deaths start to rise from the 19/20 range at present upward into the 30s/40s again then we should suspect things need attention.

We will see I guess as the deaths tell us about last month. Not today given the three weeks or so from infection to death. And the R number is always lagging too. So might be telling us the past not the present.

See the low numbers of North West cases recorded today that I noted earlier from yesterday's testing. Despite the news saying we are the epicentre which if the low numbers from Manchester, Salford and Stockport are reflective Greater Manchester isn't.

Nobody is measuring the future. Only the virus and how human behaviour changes, if it does significantly, will do that.
 
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Healdplace said:
Getting to grips with our care home problem too late and too slow will be what emerges as the big scandal here and why we are so much higher than we could have been.
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If we believe what we're told (and I've been treating it all with a pinch of salt for a while), we've done better than a number of countries in care homes anyway (as bad as it is).
 
cleavers said:
Yeah I think I spotted that, but its something that can annoy.

I also didn't visit Durdle Door, Bournemouth beach, or Dove Stone reservoir either, I have been out and had nice days, but not being part of the "idiot" population I tend to avoid crowds of idiots.
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Well, it's only reciprocating for the people who continually protest those things were acceptable because you couldn't "deny people those moments".

A month ago it was the old fogeys, now it's the protestors spreading their "message" around. Obedient lives don't matter though.
 
BJL_City said:
Well, it's only reciprocating for the people who continually protest those things were acceptable because you couldn't "deny people those moments".

A month ago it was the old fogeys, now it's the protestors spreading their "message" around. Obedient lives don't matter though.
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Fair enough.

Idiots will infect other idiots easily, I'll do my best best to avoid idiots, sadly I can't guarantee I will, as there are things I have to do outside.

I just don't like when people generalise like this....
BJL_City said:
not surprising we're struggling to drop the figures given it's about a month since VE day and everyone misbehaved.
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....because the vast majority didn't.
 
Healdplace said:
It seems pointless to try as Gelson's Dad maybe has with his graph.

Earlier today I posted the figures. Yes, the care home add on today were higher than earlier this week Or than I hoped. But that may even out over the weekend when these get reported less. We may even go below 100 reported England hospital deaths on the day this weekend. Possibly even UK wide given the usual drop on Sunday and Monday reporting

But the truth is clear in the figures. Many of the daily total add cases that are days, weeks, even months old collated slowly. And those for recent deaths has slowed meaning even after 5 days to add on cases (the band in Gelsons graph) we now have had three successive sub 100 days.

That is a milestone everyone has missed without that graph to show it. But compare it with the 5 day total on 8 April in England hospitals only which reached 737. We went below 600 after 5 day add ons on April 16. Below 500 on April 21. Below 400 on April 25. Below 300 on April 29. Below 200 on May 8. And below 100 for the first time on May 29.

All these were the last days the higher levels were recorded.

For weeks deaths have been falling not rising. Just unevenly and slowly, party because the care home figures take time to gather whereas hospital deaths are usually quicker.

If you look at the figures for deaths in England in Gelson's graph and that I have been reporting in his absence the true picture outside the care homes is clear. And the data on care homes says we are belatedly getting that under control too.

The last time even 50 + deaths were recorded on the day in all England hospitals was May 7.

The last time 40 + deaths were on the day was May 20.

The last time 30 deaths + were on the day was May 28.

The last full weeks totals of on the day in England hospital deaths recorded are in order 20, 15, 13, 19, 20, 24, 19

The trend there goes up to yesterday and is clearly in one direction. Just slow and slightly up and down.

Most announced deaths are from previous days not the day they get ascribed to by most simple reporting.

We had another added today from way back on April 8 - our worst day when near on 900 people died in England hospitals alone.

If you look at the figures the trend is all down not up. Just a slow grind.

Getting to grips with our care home problem too late and too slow will be what emerges as the big scandal here and why we are so much higher than we could have been.
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Great work. Clear as could be.
 
cleavers said:
Fair enough.

Idiots will infect other idiots easily, I'll do my best best to avoid idiots, sadly I can't guarantee I will, as there are things I have to do outside.

I just don't like when people generalise like this....

....because the vast majority didn't.
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It should come as no surprise that r values rise when restrictions are lifted. As you say idiots are idiots and they are given more freedom to extend their personal risk to others.
Again as you say as long as the majority keep away from these people of all ages we will not be forced to share the risk.
 
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