COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Tim of the Oak]

Nicola Sturgeon also announced a major change to the way hospital data is recorded from today. Some of you may not like it as it will significantly reduce numbers.

It is based around 28 days as maximum for a patient tested as positive to still be regarded as a Covid patient. Akin to the change England made recently.

On the old method there are 262 in hospital today (-2) on yesterday.

However, under the new method - which from now will be the only one cited daily by the data - there are just 48 Covid patients!

Exactly what the other 214 are seems a pertinent question.

The change also impacts icu ventilator patients (though Nicola Sturgeon says to a lesser extent).

So there are 7 on icu ventilators under the old method (same as yesterday) but that is now just 6 as the other one has been in hospital longer than 28 days so is now discounted as a Covid case.

I THINK that was what she was saying.

I imagine some of you will find this shall we say a little 'manipulative'. But she thinks it is more accurate.

I am not surprised that Nicola Sturgeon has changed the figures. I visited relatives near Wakefield this weekend and (rightly or wrongly) they were under the impression that the spike in cases in the North of England was driven by an increase in cases in Scotland. That may well be a false assumption but it is potentially politically damaging forWee Jimmy K and the SNP.

My own view is that if the change in counting cases reflects standard practice across the UK and further afield then that’s fair enough.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Rochdale council have sent out this email today...
“Due to severe issues beyond our control with the national COVID-19 test booking system the government has asked us to close our booking helpline, which we’d set up to help our residents get tested more easily.

You must now visit nhs.uk/coronavirus or call 119 to book a test. You cannot just turn up and you must have symptoms.“

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I think they meant prioritise contacting the people who have tested positive and the people who are negative get contacted later or in some cases, get forgotten.

Apologies, didnt realise that needed spelling out quite so clearly.

You didn’t need to spell it out but if people had symptoms and weren’t told they were negative, then presumably they keep isolating as if they had the virus? Without getting negatives there’s no point actually having any testing at all. Just tell everyone with any symptoms to stay at home for a fortnight and it’ll be fine. Of course, if you then pick up a sore throat a week later you’re back at home for a fortnight. Back to work for a week and one of the kids has a runny nose. Two weeks off again. Presumably all the family will be doing the same? That’s why there should be no priority just an accurate, fast turn around of results for everybody.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I wonder if 6+ months of minimal exposure to low level bacterial stressors in the environment for most people will make us extra susceptible to the winter flu this year?

The Southern Hemisphere have all but eliminated their flu season this year and, given that we almost always follow them, it suggests we should be ok. You can always go and get a vaccine for the price of 2/3 pints, if you’re worried though. Had mine yesterday.

 

[Healdplace]

It might seem a radical change to the data in Scotland - a sudden 80% reduction in numbers.

Decide for yourself if out of step with how the different nations have dealt with the pandemic.

In this list there are the number of patients (approx) in hospital at the peak of cases, versus now under the present way of calculating (with Scotland''s new number added here in brackets). All compared with total deaths per nation.

N Ireland Peak 350 / Now 17/ Deaths 570

Wales Peak 900 / Now 45 / Deaths 1600

Scotland Peak 1500 / Now 250 (reduced to 48 new method) / Deaths 2500

England Peak 17,000 / Now 900 / Deaths 37,000


You would expect roughly similar patterns here across the four nations with some slightly better/worse than others but not by a lot.

But these figures show that under the old measure N Ireland. Wales and England roughly had about 20 times as many patients in hospital at the peak (around early/mid April) versus today. But Scotland's numbers at peak were only 6 times what they are now under the old system.

So I think it justifies the suggestion Scotland had an anomaly that was over calculating and has been corrected. Though I am not a mathematician so I am suspicious I am missing something here. As if you reduce the current number I guess you would have to do the same to the one at peak too?

I am probably overthinking all of this entirely tbh!

Either way now its peak was 30 times what it is now under the altered calculation. And by some way looks the best reduction in the UK.

So I would say it was in need of some kind of change from these figures but it is either doing significantly better now than every other country (which seems unlikely given its case numbers) OR the other nations might be over estimating numbers still to some extent.

And if so chances are we will see them falling in England pretty soon as I doubt they will miss the chance to make them look better than they are.

But as for death numbers it is clear England have lost more people pro rata than the other three nations. Being the only one of the four which has had more than 2 x the number of deaths v the peak hospital patient numbers.

Not in of itself a direct correlation but it seems to suggest England has fared a little worse.

Quite possibly this was down to care home epidemics.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths happily

110 new cases at 1.5% -well down on yesterday but likely impacted by testing-gate.

Versus last week it was 0 deaths and 150 cases at 2.1% of tests.

 

[Healdplace]

N Ireland data

1 death sadly.

79 new cases (at 0.9%) Possibly low due to testing-gate.

Sadly also notable rise in patients up from 16 to 23. And 2 in icu ventilators v 1 yesterday.

V last week there were 2 deaths. 75 cases at 1%, 12 in hospital and 1 in icu ventilator beds.

 

[Healdplace]

The rolling weekly case average for N Ireland i 563 today versus 624 last week.

The split of tests per age range is:

0 - 19 = 114

20 - 39 = 226

40 - 59 = 135

60 - 79 = 69

Over 80 = 19

So just over 15% of new cases are 60 or above.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data is not too good with 14 deaths versus just 8 last week.

Recent numbers are up a lot too.

Though only 2 of the 14 are from the NW. Both were over the past weekend.

Only time will tell if this is the start of a steady increase or just the post weekend Tuesday catch up being a little worse this week. Hope so.

 

[twosips]

England hospital data is not too good with 14 deaths versus just 8 last week.

Recent numbers are up a lot too.

Though only 2 of the 14 are from the NW. Both were over the past weekend.

Only time will tell if this is the start of a steady increase or just the post weekend Tuesday catch up being a little worse this week. Hope so.

Worth noting that one is from April 17th apparently!

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data reads:

14 Sep adds 0 = 0 after one day.

13 Sep adds 7 = 8 after two days. This is the highest second day total since it was 8 on 3 August (though that is still only at 11 six weeks later.) It has not been higher than 8 on day two since the 23 July.

12 Sep adds 3 = 5 after three days

11 Sep adds 1 = 5 after four days

10 Sep adds 1 = 7 after five days.

One was also added to 9 Sep to make that 6.

The 14th death will likely be discounted from the figures later as it actually occurred on 17 April. On a day when over 800 died in England to give some context to today's slightly bad numbers.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

It might seem a radical change to the data in Scotland - a sudden 80% reduction in numbers.

Decide for yourself if out of step with how the different nations have dealt with the pandemic.

In this list there are the number of patients (approx) in hospital at the peak of cases, versus now under the present way of calculating (with Scotland''s new number added here in brackets). All compared with total deaths per nation.

N Ireland Peak 350 / Now 17/ Deaths 570

Wales Peak 900 / Now 45 / Deaths 1600

Scotland Peak 1500 / Now 250 (reduced to 48 new method) / Deaths 2500

England Peak 17,000 / Now 900 / Deaths 37,000


You would expect roughly similar patterns here across the four nations with some slightly better/worse than others but not by a lot.

But these figures show that under the old measure N Ireland. Wales and England roughly had about 20 times as many patients in hospital at the peak (around early/mid April) versus today. But Scotland's numbers at peak were only 6 times what they are now under the old system.

So I think it justifies the suggestion Scotland had an anomaly that was over calculating and has been corrected. Though I am not a mathematician so I am suspicious I am missing something here. As if you reduce the current number I guess you would have to do the same to the one at peak too?

I am probably overthinking all of this entirely tbh!

Either way now its peak was 30 times what it is now under the altered calculation. And by some way looks the best reduction in the UK.

So I would say it was in need of some kind of change from these figures but it is either doing significantly better now than every other country (which seems unlikely given its case numbers) OR the other nations might be over estimating numbers still to some extent.

And if so chances are we will see them falling in England pretty soon as I doubt they will miss the chance to make them look better than they are.

But as for death numbers it is clear England have lost more people pro rata than the other three nations. Being the only one of the four which has had more than 2 x the number of deaths v the peak hospital patient numbers.

Not in of itself a direct correlation but it seems to suggest England has fared a little worse.

Quite possibly this was down to care home epidemics.

The other bit of data that needs to be cleaned up is the patients admitted with Covid not because of it. Unless I’m mistaken I’m fairly sure that if you are admitted through A&E following a car accident you would obviously be tested for Covid and would then be included in your figures (I know they aren’t yours) which does seem some what pointless, although I understand it’s vitally important that the hospitals know who’s got it and who hasn’t. I suppose it might only be a few cases but it would be interesting to know.
The more data we can be using the better, as far as I’m concerned. Infected households is my bugbear at the minute. If someone gets symptoms, has a test and is positive, the household should be isolating. If there are 4 people in the house and they go and test positive the case numbers have gone up fourfold (and i5 obviously gets bigger, the more people live in the house) but, as long as they all stay at home, the relative risk to everyone else has stayed exactly the same.

 

[kaz7]

Situation in so many countries seems to be improving. Is it all purely climate related? Eastern European countries such as Serbia and Croatia now seem to be doing ok, having been amongst the first to raise concern about a second wave. Australia seems well back under control, and obviously major decreases in infection rates in the USA, Mexico and Brazil from where they were a short while ago.

Trump has ordered the CDC to refuse tests even if you have been in contact with someone confirmed positive,he says less tests mean less cases

Australia went back into severe lockdown

It is not climate issue as much as a lockdown issue

What is happening in Brazil ? I have lost track

 

[Healdplace]

So the UK hospital deaths today are 16 - though likely to be 15 in all settings. Last week it was 8 officially (though on the day 13 were recorded so 5 were discounted for some reason later). Yet the all settings later became 32 - the highest in quite a while.

So we might possibly expect a similar out of hospital catch up if care homes are starting to create a problem which may be why there was such an increase last week as they will likely only report on Mondays from the weekend.

Though I should add the all settings number has been nowhere near that 32 over the week since so might have been caused by some longer term data catch up as it stands out markedly from the days all around it And from the hospital numbers that day.

 

[mackenzie]

well if that was the case and the virus wasnt getting weaker then hospital cases and deaths would shoot up both of which would have to be reported. No im sorry but the testing fiasco is just that a big cock up and not part of some dastardly plan.

There's no way the Tories are planning this. The public battering they are now getting, and deservedly so, is not something any Government would knowingly walk into.
It's easy to sell soundbites in the HOC, but near impossible to explain deficiencies on the frontline to the public.

 

[kaz7]

It certainly won't do any harm but I've got a feeling that this winter is going to be bad for Flu. No basis for it mind.

After my negative test my Doc is convinced it was serious chest infection I've struggled with for over two weeks. He's finally got me on super strong anti-biotics and booked a chest X ray for me. He sounded concerned enough compared to his usually chirpy self that he's got me wondering.

Could really do without the night sweats though, you wake up convinced you're drowning.

The sweats are awful,when i had to go in recently the paramedics couldn't get an ECG because the wires wouldn't stick on ,they did three and cobbled it together

Get well soon

 

[Centurions]

The sweats are awful,when i had to go in recently the paramedics couldn't get an ECG because the wires wouldn't stick on ,they did three and cobbled it together

Get well soon

Ha, I had that with my 2nd shot of Flu. The son found me on the kitchen floor trying to breathe and when the ambulance came they shaved my chest and then wasted 5 minutes trying to get them to stick, I was absolutely pouring with sweat. They gave up in the end. That was on Xmas day morning and the consultant must have been on all night, she claimed I must have had a panic attack, cheeky bitch.

They've put me on 500mg Clarithromycin twice a day which is more bacteria aimed than a virus. Bloody horse pills they are and I hate swallowing pills.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Scotland's infections today

21 in over 65s
41 in under 20s, including 7 kids 0-4
All the rest 20-65

 

[Healdplace]

The 14 England hospital deaths (inc the April one) were in people aged between 62 and 94 and all had previously known health problems.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland's infections today

21 in over 65s
41 in under 20s, including 7 kids 0-4
All the rest 20-65

Thanks that still seems under 8% for the over 65s. Hopefully keeps that way as it is what we need to happen to stop cases translating too far into deaths. Though you wonder if over 65s have the energy to try to GET a test given how hard it is right now. No way are they going to drive 100 miles.