COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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bluejon said:
As I have said to you before, I am a scientist, I am speaking to many other scientists, and that is our analysis of the current figures. My head is anywhere but the sand. I am reviewing figures every single day and there is no significant resurgence in the dead or seriously ill at this time. I hope it stays that way.
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Well now the NHS has a process hospital deaths will be 80% less than March/April. (The NHS is useless when it doesn't have a process).
Also its 3 weeks from hospital admission to death so deaths will start ramping up next Wednesday.
In addition masks stop you getting a big starter dose of the virus so you are much more likely to survive.
Next Wednesday. I hope I'm wrong but deaths will start to ramp up then.
 
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bluejon said:
I wasn't aware of that, so if that's the case fair enough, I've generally concentrated on UK figures. I do know the spanish did lockdown much harder than us though during their first lockdown, so spread of the disease was likely much slower there than here.
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Yes that's true, our lockdown was less strict, but it did get it under control.

You keep saying there is no evidence of a need to panic, I agree there shouldn't be "panic", but there certainly should be caution. The CMO this morning said both cases and hospitalisation were now doubling in 7 or 8 days, figures that can be seen in the available data. I'm not convinced that cases themselves are doubling that quickly, the graphs don't show it, though the rise does seem to be continuing.

However, 660 were in hospital in England on Sep 13th, on the 20th it's at 1141, not quite "double" but close enough, ICU has also gone from 74 to 142, so that is clear evidence. Also it can take 10-30 days to die from going into ICU, and obviously some may recover.

The other issue which seems to be ignored is that those who end up in ICU, can suffer badly for months (perhaps life) even if they do recover, so we should be looking to prevent that as well, not to mention indirect illness/death caused by having to put too much into treating covid.
 
bluejon said:
My current reading of the situation is that because the Spanish and French didn't leave their care home system to the wolves, they are now having problems, whereas our country left them to die (sending suspected covid patients back into care homes was criminal). I'm not saying for one saying "I know there won't be a second wave", because I'd be talking out my arse if I did, just saying that the current numbers are not running out of control.
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Bollox.
Spain, Italy and France had a much bigger proportion of their deaths in care homes than England.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
The problem with the ‘government scientist’ is a bit like the problem with Ferguson and his modelling. If they’re wrong and there is no serious uptick in deaths, they will not be criticised. However, should they say everything will be fine and it’s not, they will be hounded until the end of days. It’s part of the reason they wanted to keep the SAGE membership confidential.
My criticism of the government scientists is there aren’t enough of them and there isn't enough diversity amongst them, which can’t be a good thing.
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Surprised they wanted to remain anonymous, different members of SAGE have been rolled onto BBC news pretty much every hour today. Not that the BBC want to push a particular message on their viewers obviously.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Bollox.
Spain, Italy and France had a much bigger proportion of their deaths in care homes than England.
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I can only find those numbers going back to June. You are right that Spain was more (but not by loads), you are wrong about Italy and France, they were significantly less than ours. If you can find more recent figures that show a change in that fair enough.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Prof Sikora on BBC news now saying that him and a bunch of epidemiologists have written to the government advising them to sit tight and don't make and rash decisions in implementing and more measures. They are saying that although cases are rising, those getting seriously ill is remaining low. Also spoke about Spain and France to point out that although the numbers of deaths has risen, healthcare is nowhere near bring overrun and the numbers remain relatively low. Specially referred to the current scaremongering in the UK.
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Healdplace said:
This battle of the scientists over two approaches is fascinating but one of them has to be more right than the other and how do we decide which?

The trouble is if its the doomsayers who are right and we are too slow to act then we face a bad few weeks and even longer to rest back control. Which in the end damages the economy worse.

If the it may well not be quite so bad if we wait and see ones are right and we do react then it does cause some loss of income short term but I doubt anything like a full lockdown for months will ever be considered viable again.

On that balance surely erring on the side of caution makes sense scientifically.

Its like racing towards a cliff edge with the steering looking a bit iffy. You can turn the engine off and stop. Just in case. Or keep going and bet on the steering allowing you to turn away at the last minute.

Prudence in a pandemic looks like sense. But the balance of lives v livelihood is not a simple one I do appreciate.
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The bold/underlined bit is key, and politically the only option. At the end of it, it is unlikely that anyone will be able to prove that it is the wrong choice.

Having taken the Prudence path at the fork we're approaching, it then comes down to how far down the road to Prudenceville (or beyond) they proceed.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
The problem with the ‘government scientist’ is a bit like the problem with Ferguson and his modelling. If they’re wrong and there is no serious uptick in deaths, they will not be criticised. However, should they say everything will be fine and it’s not, they will be hounded until the end of days. It’s part of the reason they wanted to keep the SAGE membership confidential.
My criticism of the government scientists is there aren’t enough of them and there isn't enough diversity amongst them, which can’t be a good thing.
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I do agree with that - scientists are allowed to disagree - especially when facing a new problem. Diversity of viewpoint should be welcomed and is in science. But less so in politics where they are less interested in being right than in not being blamed if they are wrong.
 
bluejon said:
We don't know this yet at all, it's a guess, and at this moment in time there is no evidence whatsoever that we are in the start of an out of control eruption of dangerous infection.
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Well if it’s a guess it’s one that numerous scientists and experts I’ve listened to are guessing and putting their reputation on the line about. There is also a very good documentary on netflix explaining how it works if your interested. :)
 
True_Blue69 said:
Schools went back there was always going to be more cases, if we are just going to shut then t down again what was the point?
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Schools going back was not the key to this rise, nothing like it, it was far too quick as it started in ernest only 3 or 4 days after schools returned.

The CMO also said this morning that proven new cases in children were low, the majority of new cases between 20 and 40, but it was clearly rising in all ages, but least in the youngest and eldest.

I've said numerous times in the thread, the shitty bank holiday weather was a large chunk of the cause of this spike, because traditionally lots of families/friends get together over that weekend, and would be outside at pubs and bbq's if the weather was good, but this year most spent all weekend meeting indoors.

It's also a weekend where traditionally a lot of drinking goes on, because it's the end of summer, and back to work/school, ie mundane life is about to return ahead of a long winter (incidentally Scotland have an earlier return, not sure if they have a late holiday or not).

I'm hopeful that this is largely a post bank holiday spike and it levels off again.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Cheers mate. Difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel at this time unfortunately. It is what it is, and people will be in much worse situations than me I realise that.

Figures were worse at the end of May but I felt more positive then because you could see improvements were coming, we've went full circle though and feels more and more like it's March 23rd again.
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it shouldn't be as bad as we are ready now, we were blindsided before with something new and fast spreading ,the drs made it up as they went along ish ,we now had steroids and other treatments ,don't fear it ,just be aware and hyper careful
 
True_Blue69 said:
Prof Sikora on BBC news now saying that him and a bunch of epidemiologists have written to the government advising them to sit tight and don't make and rash decisions in implementing and more measures. They are saying that although cases are rising, those getting seriously ill is remaining low. Also spoke about Spain and France to point out that although the numbers of deaths has risen, healthcare is nowhere near bring overrun and the numbers remain relatively low. Specially referred to the current scaremongering in the UK.
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Lol, the oncologist has spoken
 
The testing is up there too - thank you for the tip earlier though they have also added the past few days to the lists not just the graph. Which is good.

219, 723 tests to get this number.

Unfortunately, that is 20,000 fewer than yesterday despite finding 500 more cases.

So a significant rise in the positive test % today.
 
Healdplace said:
The testing is up there too - thank you for the tip earlier though they have also added the past few days to the lists not just the graph. Which is good.

219, 723 tests to get this number.

Unfortunately, that is 20,000 fewer than yesterday despite finding 500 more cases.

So a significant rise in the positive test % today.
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Ha you beat me to it, I'm sure that graph has been daily for a week or so now.
 
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