COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[johnnytapia]

It will be interesting to see how the numbers pan out after half-term and whether we can detect any discernible increase/decrease due to the schools closing. My own union, the NEU are now beginning to call for rotas to be introduced; children on a rolling programme of 1 or 2 weeks in/off. How realistic that would be I'm not sure as it would mean thousands of people having work disrupted, however, that's already the case as classes/year groups are sent home when there's a positive case. My gut instinct is that we'll muddle through until Christmas when, maybe, just maybe, we'll have more definitive (and positive) news on a vaccine.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland sadly is continuing the trend onto very bad numbers.

15 deaths. Most here in many many months.

But at 722 cases these are tracking down again - seems like the circuit breaker might be working

Starting to think we will pay a painful price for not doing this a month ago.

The 7 day case total down again for the 4th straight day to 6493.

A fall in the over 60s and over 80s in that number too. But not a big one. Though it reduced the over 60 number as a % slightly day to day.

Hospital patients 360 - up 18 on yesterday and ventilated 33 - up 3 on yesterday.

 

[M18CTID]

A link to the full speech here. He nails it on so many fronts:

 

[Healdplace]

Probably just because the number of daily tests is now multiple times what it was for most of those previous months.

Its a factor hard to see when you just spot cases escalating in Greater Manchester but is of course equally relevant. We missed many cases in the first wave. So what become huge leaps in the numbers there - then to now - really are not what they seem.

They tell us how places are doing versus each other now but much less about how they are doing versus themselves in the first wave. Unless the change is so stark (like Wigan now or Bolton when it went off a cliff some weeks ago) that you cannot miss the change in status.

This is why I am using Pop Score data more than I used to do. It tracks relative change better than raw cases can.

As you saw last night it shows Manchester is the best place in GM right now. Something you would never guess in a million years if you just go from the 300 or 400 cases a day that outs it top the 'leader board' all the time. The pop sore evens that out via population.

 

[Len Rum]

Sounds like a radio phone-in: Can I get a mention for Covid?
How the fuck do you get a "mention" on a death certificate? At what point does a mention become the root cause?
Anne Boleyn. Death by beheading (and a slight tickly cough).
Donald Campbell: blitzed into a million pieces on Lake Coniston (and a nice shout out to the cancerous lung he had from 100 Bensons a day)

Ha Ha
Almost as good as deaths that occured within 28 days of a positive test when there was an R in the month.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland over past 3 weeks


Deaths 0 v 7 v 3 v 13 today

Cases 639 v 863 v 913 v 722 today. Circuit breaker impact seems real in case reduction.

Patients 85 v 150 v 286 v 360 today - 76% rise v 91% v 26% - suggesting again some impact from the circuit break,

Ventilators 8 v 15 v 25 v 33 today - a steady fall in the increase to 32% from nearly 3 times that level. But the rising deaths will impact this so not wise to conclude anything here.

 

[grunge]

Well I know this is anecdotal. since this started I was hearing the odd 2nd/3rd hand story of people getting it. however in the last week i know 4 1st hand, 3 from the NW and 1 from down south.

 

[Eds]

Irrelevant except for not covering the mouth or nose. They stop the wearer spreading the disease

Irrelevant except for not covering the mouth or nose - you mean the most important thing

 

[Healdplace]

So a really disturbing UK hospital death total today of 252. A number we have not seen since 5 June.

Last week it was 162. Week before 106. Week before 53.

That is a rise of 100% v 51% v 55%. Less promising.

Though deaths as I keep stressing will be the last numbers to change.

And England are the biggest contributor to this rise.