2020 US Elections

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SWP's back said:
That’s because no one has acted in American politics like Trump before. He’s a one off, a terrible human and he would love to be a lifetime dictator. He. Is. Not. Normal.
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No one in recent memory has been like Trump. But Andrew Jackson, by all accounts, was very similar.

Current circumstances in the States are not unique - as historian Jon Meacham points out - they do however, in Meacham's opinion, constitute a dangerous attack on the very institutions of democracy - a view in which I share.

And - as you might expect - Meacham, a mostly Republican voter - voted for Biden this time round.
 
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Gray said:
Associated Press have called it for Biden.
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They have; here's their explanation.

apnews.com

EXPLAINER: A closer look at Arizona

A CLOSER LOOK AT ARIZONA State officials said Friday there are 150,000 votes still to be counted in Arizona, a Western presidential battleground state where Democrat Joe Biden had a .92 percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump, an advantage of about 29,861 votes.
apnews.com apnews.com

Since their call the race has narrowed considerably. Per the NBC analysis I posted earlier, Latino voters have come in more strongly for Trump (not the majority of Latinos, mind) than one might have expected and Maricopa county has narrowed, which perhaps means (I'm speculating) that more conservative precincts within the county have reported later.

But if I'm doing the math right, Trump has to go nearly 60/40 with the remaining 500k votes, and 75% or so of the remaining votes are in two urban counties (where Phoenix and Tucson are) where combined Biden is leading about 55/45. So it seems unlikely Trump can catch up.
 
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FogBlueInSanFran said:
They have; here's their explanation.

apnews.com

EXPLAINER: A closer look at Arizona

A CLOSER LOOK AT ARIZONA State officials said Friday there are 150,000 votes still to be counted in Arizona, a Western presidential battleground state where Democrat Joe Biden had a .92 percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump, an advantage of about 29,861 votes.
apnews.com apnews.com

Since their call the race has narrowed considerably. Per the NBC analysis I posted earlier, Latino voters have come in more strongly for Trump (not the majority of Latinos, mind) than one might have expected and Maricopa county has narrowed, which perhaps means (I'm speculating) that more conservative precincts within the county have reported later.
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So how do you see it panning out?
 
The perfect fumble said:
So how do you see it panning out?
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I added my thoughts above -- if I'm doing the math right it looks hard for Trump there. I also think Georgia has a decent chance of flipping to Biden which would mean it's over. I'm not 100% sure Trump won't get Nevada however. COVID lockdowns have really hurt Vegas and Clark County isn't that blue, and is by far the most populous county in NV (Clinton only won it by 2 pct points). Biden campaign has been reasonably confident PA will come in for them in the end once Philadelphia is counted (heavily blue) but I am sure they'd feel much better if they could lock it up before PA finishes their count.
 
I'm not sure if Joe Scarborough has broken the record for mentioning he's a conservative whilst analysing the results on Morning Joe.
 
Media Navel gazing again.

"Erm...it looks like the polls were wrong again..."


It's difficult as they don't have access to the targeted ads demographics get on social media.
 
So no difference then ? bbc still has biden on 243

It is much closer than i thought it would be but i called it that way after the exit poll
 
kaz7 said:
So no difference then ? bbc still has biden on 243

It is much closer than i thought it would be but i called it that way after the exit poll
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BBC being cautious as are MSNBC. Races are too close to call
 
kaz7 said:
So no difference then ? bbc still has biden on 243

It is much closer than i thought it would be but i called it that way after the exit poll
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I think news of strong early blue turn out scared reds into turning out (not a bad thing if one were non-partisan) but I think Democrats are going to have to ask some serious questions about what's happened to the Latinx base they thought they had -- albeit I'd also guess some GOP suppression hurt it.
 
kaz7 said:
They are trying to be impartial when we know they are not
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I have a complicated relationship with CNN. It's a tough spot for them. When you say "The President is not telling the truth" and are stating a fact, that's actually an impartial statement. But I also think they felt like they needed to combat Fox, philosophically and in the wars for viewers and dollars.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
I think news of strong early blue turn out scared reds into turning out (not a bad thing if one were non-partisan) but I think Democrats are going to have to ask some serious questions about what's happened to the Latinx base they thought they had -- albeit I'd also guess some GOP suppression hurt it.
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I said much the same about possible provocation of Red voting.

Assuming he wins, Biden does at least have some obvious groupings to focus on.
 
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