COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Manc in London said:
Yes and for that reason, I expect pubs, if they are allowed to open, would therefore go for the Covid safe approach rather than proof of having had the vaccine
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Absolutely.

Having worked in hospitality for 10 years I know that money through the till is the number one priority.

They will practice social distancing, contact tracing etc, but they certainly won't give a shit if you've been vaccinated or not.
 
14, 718 cases and 189 all settings deaths.

One seventh of those cases from Wales which has one 22nd of the population. 3 times the share it should be seeing.
 
Cases versus tests (pillar 1 & 2) over past 3 days (they do not update tests over the weekend so we have to wait to Monday to see these three together),

Friday 360, 307 tests - finds 15, 539 cases = 4.3% positive

Saturday 335, 257 tests - finds 17, 272 cases = 5.1% positive

Sunday 256, 913 tests - finds 14, 718 cases = 5.7% positive

So once again a 104 K fall in tests over these days. And a big rise in the positive percentage that is hidden from most eyes who just see case numbers falling.
 
When you recalculate those numbers just for England cases v tests the % positive FRI/SAT/SUN is 4.0% v 4.9% v 5.2%

Showing England is doing relatively well
 
Healdplace said:
When you recalculate those numbers just for England cases v tests the % positive FRI/SAT/SUN is 4.0% v 4.9% v 5.2%

Showing England is doing relatively well
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true, but we've only just re-entered the tier system and people are way more lax now than ever before. can't see low scores maintaining
 
BlueHammer85 said:
true, but we've only just re-entered the tier system and people are way more lax now than ever before. can't see low scores maintaining
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The data for the past few days when redistributed to date of test shows a small uptick in cases in England already it seems - though mostly focused in the SE and London.

Almost certainly the worst thing we could do but also the most likely thing we will do is remove areas from tier 3 next week in the lead up to Christmas.

And the consequence of that politically driven decision and the problems Christmas will inevitably bring as most scientists are warning but know they cannot stop will likely be a third national lockdown in January.
 
Regional scoreboard

London 2460 - down from 3198

Midlands 1334 - down from 1581

North East 466 - down from 542 - lowest here for three months.

Yorkshire 997 - down from 1262 - first sub 1000 in nearly 3 months.

And North West 1151 - down from 1518 - to second lowest total since September.
 
GM highlights. Very good day.

Second lowest total in 4 months at just 481 - down 189 on yesterday.

At 42% of the NW total it has been falling all week and is one of its lowest numbers yet. (It was over 50% for much of November).

Only one borough over 100 and not by much. And only one other borough NOT under 50.

It would be such a shame to blow this dramatic turnaround over the next few weeks. With rescue in sight.

Bit like a marathon runner deciding to pay slap hands with the crowd with the finishing line approaching just to see a distant rival come behind his back and steal the prize.

Unfortunately as Wales has shown that can happen if you take it easy. Their tragic price in deaths is yet to come but will lead to some people having very sad Christmases this year.
 
squirtyflower said:
Their firebreak worked then?
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TBF, it did seem to work whilst it was in place, but behaviour immediately reverted afterwards to a state which drove cases rapidly back up again.

Judging by all the anecdotes of packed shopping centres etc over the weekend in England, you can probably expect the exact same here. Sadly.

I very much hope to proved wrong, but we've nationwide had flat cases for a fortnight, just removed restrictions, so can expect an immediate rebound up, followed by a further, potentially significant acceleration after the Chrstmas "relaxation" planned, and to see Johnson in Drakeford's position, but just before Christmas.

Stay safe blues.
 
Update on Kent:

Dartford adds 62 cases = 2725 - Pop Score rises by 55 to 2475.

Medway adds 216 cases = 7926 - Pop score rises by 77 to 2845.

Both these are more than double often treble or even more versus the Pop score of any borough in GM today.

And Medway is the highest Pop Score rise as far as I can see from anywhere. None of my watchlist towns come close to it today.


Andyhinch - Cheshire East - 48 - up from 47. Total cases 9391. Pop Score rises 15 to 2447. Weekly Pop rises by 1 to 114.
 
Seven of the top `10 red watch boroughs in this week's list are in Wales so outside the tier system.

The other 3 are Swale, Medway and Thanet with weekly pop scores of 599, 585 and 431 respectively.

The boroughs rising the most in the past week are Runnymede in Surrey, and Basildon and Brentwood both in Essex.

Wales and Southern England are the current epicentres as you can see. Not all the places being treated as if they are via tier 3.

The system we have created is not doing its job as it is now waiting instead of reacting. It has to respond faster to the clear shift in the virus spread that we have seen unfold in here over the past 10 days with little reaction out there.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
TBF, it did seem to work whilst it was in place, but behaviour immediately reverted afterwards to a state which drove cases rapidly back up again.

Judging by all the anecdotes of packed shopping centres etc over the weekend in England, you can probably expect the exact same here. Sadly.

I very much hope to proved wrong, but we've nationwide had flat cases for a fortnight, just removed restrictions, so can expect an immediate rebound up, followed by a further, potentially significant acceleration after the Chrstmas "relaxation" planned, and to see Johnson in Drakeford's position, but just before Christmas.

Stay safe blues.
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As far as I recalled the Welsh went back to a free for all with everything open, I maybe wrong.
And thats their issue.
Also their break was too short to have any real impact.
 
squirtyflower said:
As far as I recalled the Welsh went back to a free for all with everything open, I maybe wrong.
And thats their issue.
Also their break was too short to have any real impact.
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Came out with some restrictions but very lax, agree 17 days (2 to 3 weeks) which was being pushed for England is too short to have a major effect.
gov.wales

Firebreak lockdown in Wales ends | GOV.WALES

As the firebreak ends in Wales, First Minister Mark Drakeford today asked everyone to think about how they can protect their families from the virus.
gov.wales gov.wales
www.independent.co.uk

Keir Starmer calls for ‘circuit break’ lockdown as coronavirus cases rise sharply

Labour leader accuses Boris Johnson of losing control of the virus and demands two- or three-week national shutdown
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 
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Healdplace said:
GM highlights. Very good day.

Second lowest total in 4 months at just 481 - down 189 on yesterday.

At 42% of the NW total it has been falling all week and is one of its lowest numbers yet. (It was over 50% for much of November).

Only one borough over 100 and not by much. And only one other borough NOT under 50.

It would be such a shame to blow this dramatic turnaround over the next few weeks. With rescue in sight.

Bit like a marathon runner deciding to pay slap hands with the crowd with the finishing line approaching just to see a distant rival come behind his back and steal the prize.

Unfortunately as Wales has shown that can happen if you take it easy. Their tragic price in deaths is yet to come but will lead to some people having very sad Christmases this year.
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problem is people livlihoods are going down the pan. Manchester was dead this morning. The government are trying to balance strain on the NHS and strain on the economy. such a difficult call. As soon as levels in GM are down to merseyside levels when they were deemed ok to be tier 2 they should be rights reduce GM to tier 3. not wait another week or so.
 
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