COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
Healdplace said:
Update on Kent:

Dartford adds 62 cases = 2725 - Pop Score rises by 55 to 2475.

Medway adds 216 cases = 7926 - Pop score rises by 77 to 2845.

Both these are more than double often treble or even more versus the Pop score of any borough in GM today.

And Medway is the highest Pop Score rise as far as I can see from anywhere. None of my watchlist towns come close to it today.


Andyhinch - Cheshire East - 48 - up from 47. Total cases 9391. Pop Score rises 15 to 2447. Weekly Pop rises by 1 to 114.
Click to expand...

thanks heald, one question. What do you mean by ‘pop score’ ?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
problem is people livlihoods are going down the pan. Manchester was dead this morning. The government are trying to balance strain on the NHS and strain on the economy. such a difficult call. As soon as levels in GM are down to merseyside levels when they were deemed ok to be tier 2 they should be rights reduce GM to tier 3. not wait another week or so.
Click to expand...
I do understand that but I fear the reality is that 3 weeks up to Christmas and the Christmas free for all will end up leading to a closure during the vaccination programme in Jan & Feb if - as seems inevitable - numbers rise.

When London faces this I am doubtful they would do that only there and not up north. So likely they will justify it on grounds that the NW somehow exported the virus down south when it was locked down tighter so we 'all have to pull together as we enter the home straight and the gold medal is in sight' or some such imagery from Boris as the explanation.

As I have said there is no justification for keeping GM in tier 3 right now. And I fear they will do a half and half release of boroughs which will maybe help their economy for a few days before Christmas but I fear will cost it in the long run as the January sales will be scuppered.

Hope I read this wrong and I certainly might be doing. But January and February are the worst possible months for the NHS every year without Covid. There will have to be widespread long term lockdown if we enter that period having driven things up over the next month.

I have said it often but there are no easy answers here and every choice is painful in some ways. But what happens over the next 4 weeks will determine the fate of lives and, yes, I agree probably livelihoods too.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
thanks heald, one question. What do you mean by ‘pop score’ ?
Click to expand...
POPulation score. Case numbers measured versus 100,000 people.

It is how scientists and the government compare everywhere for how well or badly it is handling the pandemic over the past 9 months, last week or today.

As 100 cases in a big city like Birmingham is good and would only rise the Pop Score by about 9 in one day. Whereas if they happen in a small borough with far lower population such as Knowsley on Merseyside it would increase by about 75.

The lower the better always with a Pop Score. The main number from cumulative cases over the 9 month pandemic rises daily as cases are added and lets you see from lower to higher which places have handled it well or not.

A very few small rural communities have Pop scores still in the low hundreds or around 1000 even after 9 months, Most are between 1000 and 3000. The more built up an area the higher the scores will be. Around high 2000s/low 3000s is now about average. Over 3500 you are seeing places more likely to have problems. Once over 5000 you are likely in the top 100 or so most infected across the pandemic.

The highest as of today is Blackburn which only added 29 cases today (its lowest in ages) but went up 19 in pop score to reach 6702. Oldham is the only other place currently over 6000 (though a few others soon will get there as you can only go up every day everywhere unless you have zero cases). Oldham today had 55 cases - double Blackburn - but because Oldham is bigger its cases v 100K population is lower than Blackburn so its increase in POPulation score was only 16 today to reach 6393.

So the number of cases infer Blackburn had the best day. The Pop score evens out what they should have got judged versus everyone else and shows Oldham actually did.

Aside from the Pop Score across the pandemic there is also a Weekly Pop that JUST measures the Pop from 7 days ago to today. This CAN go down or stand sill or go up because cases can be more or less from day to day. So that WEEKLY Pop score tells you more about now than the whole 9 months.

This is used by science and the government to track which areas are increasing and which are stable and which are going down. Which determines if they are in trouble and need action taking.

I post both for GM every day and update the rises and falls of other key areas. I will be able to do that in a few days for your areas as I need to get to the 7th day before I can then update you daily (as I do for Cheshire East) on how the weekly pop number alters from one day to the next. Because it needs a week's data to do so by definition.

Just recall the key - the lower the Pop the better the higher the worst and going down is good for a weekly pop whilst going up is not. How fast they rise or fall tells you across a few days if things are improving or getting worse.
 
I live in Cheadle village and passed through Handforth yesterday . The Wagon and Horses is literally right on the old Cheshire border and was busy. I am about 2 miles maximum from here.

That got me thinking a bit so I did a bit of research on my own . I have a very old friend of mine who lives in Muswell Hill , a pretty affluent suburb of North London who told me how the pubs and restaurants are dealing with the move out of lockdown to tier 2. To my surprise it turns out their infection rates are well up on SK8 so that got me thinking some more . I work in construction ( amongst other sectors)of cinemas and have worked extensively all over London so I googled postcodes in Chelsea , Hampstead , Crystal Palace and Esher places of an equal and above standing to London as we are to Manchester. And guess what , only Chelsea has a lower infection rate than Cheadle.

Now I’m fuckin pissed right off.

I have my Daughters 21st next week followed by sons 18th 4 days later and then Christmas.

I am not going to be a complete twat about this but I’m travelling over the 2 Mile border.

Fucking sort it Mary Robinson .
 
Had the test this pm. Fuck me I thought she was going to Pearce my eyeball.

locked in the spare room for 24/48 hours - bored!
 
sky tot said:
Does anyone know anybody having the vaccine tomorrow. ?
Click to expand...
No, although I’m surprised that no one I know has been contacted. I’ve a niece working at Bristol hospital on the wards, my other half working at Trafford hospital. An 82 year old mum with lung cancer and an 89 year old father in law in a care home. No one has heard anything.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD:

CASES 481 - DOWN FROM 670 42% of NW TOTAL

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today:- (no meaningful figure as student add on wk) v 763 v 351 v 481

Sunday testing, Might well increase a bit tomorrow.

The very low numbers last week meant almost everyone's Pop Score rises a small amount today.


Manchester 109 – down from 154. Total cases 32, 035. Weekly 1041. Pop score up 19 to 5794. Weekly Pop up 7 188. Last week it was sub 100 for one day is why.

Wigan 70 – down from 85. Total cases 17, 131. Weekly 636. Pop score up 19 to 5212. Weekly Pop up 3 to 193. Same reason lower last week.

Bolton 47 - down from 55. Total cases 15, 562. Weekly 499, Pop score up 16 to 5412. Weekly Pop up 6 to 174. Again last week was VERY low so a lot of ups today despite low numbers. As they were not low versus last week.

Rochdale 46 - down from 97. Total cases 13, 118. Weekly 505. Pop score up 21 to 5898. Weekly Pop up 3 to 227.

Bury 46 – down from 49. Total cases 10, 155. Weekly 452. Pop score up 24 to 5317. Highest in GM today. Weekly Pop up 13 to 237. Bury still got work to do.

Oldham 38 - down from 55. Total cases 15, 159. Weekly 381 . Pop score up 16 to 6393. Again Blackburn with fewer cases rose more to 66702 – and is over 300 above Oldham now. Weekly Pop up 2 to 160.

Stockport 38 – down from 41, Again note the bunching of these boroughs as it used to be. Total cases 10, 853. Weekly 355. Pop score up 13 to 3699. Weekly Pop up 3 to 121. But the Pop numbers in GM do seem to have begun to stall or slowly rise which is just the first inklings of concern. Hopefully unfounded. And just the week to week Monday low testing factor.

Salford 32 – down from 57. Total cases 13, 705. Weekly 366. Pop score up 12 to 5295. Joint best in three way tie today for lowest. But really low for Salford and Weekly Pop bucks trend by falling 3 to 141.

Tameside 28 – down from 39. Total cases 10, 691. Weekly 302. Pop score up 12 to 4720. Weekly Pop up 3 to 133.

Trafford 27 - down from 38. Best in GM again. Total cases 8909. Weekly 215. Lowest in GM. Pop score up 12 to 3754. Weekly Pop up 3 to 91. Even a score this low was higher than ;last week's 20 so the weekly Pop rises. Gap to Stockport stays at 30 on weekly pop but catches up 1 on Stockport in chase for the overall Pop across the pandemic. Only to 55 behind now.

Even though these Pops went up it was a good day for GM. Just not quite as good as this day last week.

But the last EIGHT boroughs here all within 20 of one another is like the days of late Summer not the recent past when it was often more like 200.
 
Virus case spread is like a 80 day wave that hits an area and seemingly nothing can stop it rising, then it just declines to lower levels. Then it slowly rises over a couple of months till it takes off again.
It's chuffing weird.
 
I think it is mutating - some of the lads at work, fit young kids in their 20s have been floored by it and still weak after several days after.

All sorts of issues - itchy skin, sore toes, tight chest and temperatures off the scale at 40 degrees! Crazy.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS BY DATE TODAY

6 Dec adds 28 = 28 after 1 day (Last wk 27 added)

5 Dec adds 94 = 126 after 2 days (Last wk 104 added = 144) 126 is the lowest 2 day total since 21 Nov.

4 Dec adds 38 = 184 after 3 days (Last wk 26 added = 189)

3 Dec adds 8 = 250 after 4 days (Last wk 8 added = 244)

2 Dec adds 3 = 236 after 5 days (Last wk 9 added = 292) There has been no lower 5 day total than 236 since 225 on 13 November

Notable add ons:- 1 Dec adds 7 now 258. 24 Nov adds 1 = 309. 22 Nov adds 1 = 309.

Peak still remains at 323 on 18 Nov. Right now no date in the 18 days since is threatening to overtake it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top