COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
BlueHammer85 said:
Wait till the first death...

sorry to be cold. But it is just a matter of time before a big sky breaking news headline reports a death partially related to the vaccine jab.

I will of course take it with a pinch of salt as i have full confidence in the vaccine, but i suspect others won't.
Click to expand...
That's why I pray that one of the first receivers yesterday, who were all over the news, do not die of anything over the next 12 months.

The fallout, particularly the press reporting, doesn't bear thinking about!
 
twosips said:
Yeah that's my fear. I've got a sinking feeling that Jan/Feb will be worse than November and December due to the inevitable Christmas spread/lockdown fatigue setting in/shite weather/vaccines relaxing people subconsciously. Hopefully i'm hugely wrong.
Click to expand...

I hope you're wrong too. I fear you're actually very optimistic. Not looking good atm, and lots of politicians pressuring to get restrictions removed, exactly what the virus would like.
 
trumpton said:
That's why I pray that one of the first receivers yesterday, who were all over the news, do not die of anything over the next 12 months.

The fallout, particularly the press reporting, doesn't bear thinking about!
Click to expand...


Yes, this will be where the policy as to what counts as a covid death comes home to roost.

I have a family member who was admitted to hospital after testing positive along with her daughter and her daughter's husband - both youngish and who caught it at work. They brushed it off in days at home. She went into hospital. Needed oxygen for a day but only as a puffer not on any machines, But was then fine and tested negative. But they insisted on putting in place a care package before letting her home even though she was well enough and her daughter and son in law had had Covid and self isolated twice - once for themselves and then whenshe tested positive all over again immediately after.

It took three weeks and she stayed on the Covid ward. Her brother died (not from Covid) whilst she was in there but nobody was allowed in to see her nor was she told. But soon after he died she suddenly deteriorated and they let her home. She lasted only hours at home before dying.

Despite testing negative at her last test they have put Covid on the death certificate and told the family they can dispute this if they choose but if they did it now they would have to cancel the wake and funeral,

They were forced to allow this as cause of death even though they do not really believe it was and they intend to push it further once the funeral is over.

On so many levels this is a major problem that will be happening all over the UK and likely has been throughout the pandemic.

The lack of clarity over whether covid causes death is going to get even more messy when the vaccine gets involved.
 
On the "how/when will we know if the vaccine is having an effect?" question.

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the ratio of (deaths)/(positive tests)

It varies through the pandemic depending on how good we are at finding cases, and how effective treatments are.

At the moment, it's flat at about 4%: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...othing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

As high risk people are first in line (50% of deaths are in 80+ year olds), you could expect a significant drop once these people are vaccinated.

There are only 3 million people over 80 in the UK according to Wiki, which requires just 6 million doses.

I think govt has said Pfizer vaccine alone will have that number early in the New Year.

Deaths, however, lag infection by a month or so.

So I'd be optimistic: 50% of those most at risk should be vaccinated by end Jan. We should see a significant drop in CFR by end Feb. Whether total deaths are falling by then will depend on overall prevalence, which is unknowable as it depends on behaviour. However, deaths should be crashing by end March, as weather starts to improve and vaccination

Health damage and deaths to younger/less vulnerable people could easily go in the opposite direction if (when?) social distancing is dropped as deaths drop.
 
Greater Manchester summary:

Cases well up to highest in a week but slightly down from last Wednesday. Up to 793 - 300 up in the day. But 14 down on last week.


Everywhere up as you might expect - Manchester by the most and Stockport by the least.

However, from nobody over 100 that rose to THREE boroughs over 100 today. The third being quite a surprise unless you have been following my reports on the place in the most trouble as it is not one of those that has been driving the big problems up until the last week or two.

Full report in a while.
 
twosips said:
Yeah that's my fear. I've got a sinking feeling that Jan/Feb will be worse than November and December due to the inevitable Christmas spread/lockdown fatigue setting in/shite weather/vaccines relaxing people subconsciously. Hopefully i'm hugely wrong.
Click to expand...
I think you are right , expect a more severe lockdown in jan / feb. Gove was stupid to say today that restrictions will be less then , they never learn to stop promising things
 
The UK has reported another 533 deaths with COVID-19 and 16,578 new cases of the virus in the last 24 hours.

That compares to 12,282 cases and 616 deaths on Tuesday, according to government data.

It means the total number of people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus is now 62,566.
 
GM Scoreboard:

CASES 793 46% of NW total.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today:- 1508 v 1049 v 807 v 793 TODAY

Still falling but more slowly and close to stall.


Manchester 176 – up from 95. Total cases 32, 306. Weekly 1004. Biggest GM rise today and enough to top the 1000 a week cases again. Pop score up 32 to 5844. Weekly Pop up 4 to 182.

Wigan 111 – up from 80. Total cases 17, 322. Weekly 624. Pop score up 34 to 5271. Weekly Pop down 3 to 190. (Higher cases last Wednesday is why there are rises)

Bury 105 – up big from 36. Total cases 10, 296. Weekly 435. Pop score up 55 to 5391. Most in GM today and in quite a while. Bury have clear problems as I have been flagging up in these reports but which it was starting to look like may have stabilised. Hopefully a blip. Weekly Pop up 7 to 228. Bury has the worst Pop in GM,

Rochdale 84 - up from 41. Total cases 13, 243. Weekly 451. Pop score up 37 to 5954. Weekly Pop down 7 to 202.

Oldham 65 - up from 61. Total cases 15, 285. Weekly 393. Pop score up 27 to 6446. Again Blackburn which rose to 71 cases today and its pop score rose to 6780 – so is now 334 above Oldham as worst in UK Weekly Pop up 3 to 165.

Bolton 63 - up from 49. Total cases 15, 674. Weekly 447, Pop score up 22 to 5451. Weekly Pop down 8 to 156.

Salford 59 up from 37. Total cases 13, 801. Weekly 348. Pop score up 23 to 5332. Weekly Pop down 1 to 134. .

Stockport 58 – up from 50, Total cases 10, 961. Weekly 347. Pop score up 20 to 3736. Weekly up 1 to 119. Not doing terribly but by its standards not doing well. It has suffered from staying out of restrictions when Trafford said no to the offer and never fully recovered.

Trafford 40 – up from 26. Second best again today. Total cases 8975. Weekly 213. Lowest weekly score in GM but back over 200. Pop score up 17 to 3781. Weekly Pop up 6 to 89. Cuts another 3 on Stockport's lead in chase for the overall Pop across the pandemic. Only 45 behind. It was over 200 more than that a month or so ago.

Tameside 32 – up from 18. Total cases 10, 741. Weekly 228. The race with Trafford is really now on and just 15 behind – closest anyone has been in weeks and Tameside not the one expected to be challenger! Pop score up 14 to 4742. Lowest rise in GM today. Weekly Pop down 12 to 100. Best fall in GM today and massively cuts into Trafford's lead for best current weekly Pop – taking it from 29 yesterday to just 11 now. We might have TWO sub 100 Pop Scores tomorrow with Stockport being neither of them.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The word strain appears to be often misused.

www.bioserendipity.com

Defining a New Strain of a Virus

Understand when a mutation leads to a new strain of a virus
www.bioserendipity.com www.bioserendipity.com

To date, the general view seems to be that there is no significant difference in immune response between the various virus mutations, and also that this type of virus mutates much more slowly than flu viruses, where different strains each winter require different vaccines.

How long it will be before a different vaccine might be required against an evolved strain seems unknown at present and hard to estimate

More speculatively, you could imagine that if a vaccine stops transmission of the current virus, that will put evolutionary pressure to mutate into a form resistant to the vaccine. A quick google reveals this is seen as a potential problem https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-vaccines-can-drive-pathogens-to-evolve-20180510/
Click to expand...


Jees, that's actually quite a scary thought, but understandable. Could theoretically end up in a far worse position in a few years time if and when the virus evolves to work around any vaccine which is fighting against it then.
 
Watch areas on request:

Cheshire East 49 cases - down from 56, Total cases 9496. Pop score up 13 to 2472. Weekly Pop down from 107 to 99. Cracks the sub 100 Pop Score.

You can have a drink on that Andyhinch!


Dartford 33 cases - down from 39. Total cases 2859. Pop score rises by 29 to 2539.

Medway 152 cases - down from 197. Total cases 8275. Pop score up 55 to 2971. Likely to join the 3000 club tomorrow
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top